20160519-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial markets on May 18, 2016, covering key indices, market trends, company performance, and investment insights.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 19,826, down 1.5% from the previous day, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of 9.5%.
• HSCEI: Closed at 8,301, down 1.5%, with a YTD decline of 14.1%.
• Shanghai Composite: Closed at 2,808, down 1.3%, with a YTD decline of 20.7%.
• Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,766, down 2.7%, with a YTD decline of 23.5%.
• DJIA: Closed at 17,527, no change from the previous day, with a YTD increase of 0.6%.
• S&P 500: Closed at 2,048, no change, with a YTD increase of 0.2%.
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed at 4,739, up 0.5%, with a YTD decline of 5.4%.
• FTSE 100: Closed at 6,166, down 0.0%, with a YTD decline of 1.2%.
• DAX: Closed at 9,943, up 0.5%, with a YTD decline of 7.4%.
• CAC 40: Closed at 4,319, up 0.5%, with a YTD decline of 6.9%.
• Nikkei 225: Closed at 16,830, up 1.1%, with a YTD decline of 11.6%.
• Taiwan Weighted: Closed at 8,160, up 0.2%, with a YTD decline of 2.1%.

Market Performance

• The Hong Kong market experienced a decline, with the HSI down 292 points and HSCEI down 124 points.
• Market Up/Down Ratio: Approximately 1,700 listed companies (excluding GEM, ETF, unlisted, and suspended companies) showed a mix of rising and falling stocks.
• A-share premium to H-share: Several companies showed significant premiums, with examples like BYD Co. Ltd. at 65.0% and China Vanke at 63.6%.

Stock in Focus

• Technovator International (1206.HK):
  • Last Close: HK$3.80
  • Entry: HK$3.75
  • Target: HK$4.50
  • Stop-loss: HK$3.00
  • YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -21.2% / -5.6% / 10.3% / -52.2%
  • Market Cap: HK$3.03bn
  • 3M Average Daily Volume: 1.15mn shares
  • FY1 Forward P/E: 11.1
  • Reason for Buy Recommendation: Strong cash position, potential for acquisitions and business development.
  • Valuation: Undervalued with a P/B of 1.26x and ROE of 11.6%.

Today's Top Picks

1. FDG Vehicles (729.HK):

   • Last Close: HK$0.475
   • Entry: Current price
   • Target: HK$0.515
   • Stop-loss: HK$0.450
   • Reason: Permission granted for manufacturing pure electric vehicles, may test previous high.

2. Pan Asia Mining (8173.HK):

   • Last Close: HK$0.084
   • Entry: Current price
   • Target: HK$0.092
   • Stop-loss: HK$0.079
   • Reason: Stock price bottomed out, potential for small rebound.

Sector Performance

• Top Performing Sectors:
  • Aluminum: 0.3% (d-d), 0.0% (5D), -7.1% (1M)
  • HK Consumer Group: 0.0% (d-d), -3.1% (5D), -2.6% (1M)
  • Gas: -0.1% (d-d), -1.2% (5D), -10.5% (1M)
  • HK Telecoms: -0.2% (d-d), -5.2% (5D), -5.0% (1M)
  • Sports Accessories: -0.2% (d-d), 0.4% (5D), -6.7% (1M)
  • Telecoms Equipment: -0.4% (d-d), -2.4% (5D), -5.9% (1M)
  • REITs: -0.4% (d-d), -0.8% (5D), -0.8% (1M)
  • Toll Road: -0.5% (d-d), -1.0% (5D), -4.0% (1M)
  • Heavy Machinery: -0.6% (d-d), -2.1% (5D), -18.0% (1M)
  • Automobile: -0.8% (d-d), -1.6% (5D), -8.6% (1M)
  • Handset and related accessories: -0.9% (d-d), -1.1% (5D), -5.6% (1M)
  • Local Banks: -0.9% (d-d), -0.8% (5D), -4.7% (1M)
  • Technology: -0.9% (d-d), -3.5% (5D), -8.7% (1M)
  • Logistics: -0.9% (d-d), 3.5% (5D), -2.8% (1M)
  • Marine: -1.0% (d-d), -1.6% (5D), -8.6% (1M)

Market Data

• Best Performers:

  • FDG Vehicles (729.HK): Price: HK$0.475, 1D chg: 8.0%, 5D chg: 9.2%, 1M chg: -4.0%
  • PETRO-KING (2178.HK): Price: HK$0.550, 1D chg: 5.8%, 5D chg: 3.8%, 1M chg: 1.9%
  • CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): Price: HK$0.228, 1D chg: 4.6%, 5D chg: -2.1%, 1M chg: 5.6%
  • YANCHANG PETRO (346.HK): Price: HK$0.195, 1D chg: 3.7%, 5D chg: 12.7%, 1M chg: 27.5%
  • SPT ENERGY GROUP (1251.HK): Price: HK$0.570, 1D chg: 3.6%, 5D chg: 0.0%, 1M chg: -6.6%

• Worst Performers:

  • BIOSTIME INTERNA (1112.HK): Price: HK$20.800, 1D chg: -9.8%, 5D chg: -10.5%, 1M chg: -16.8%
  • JOHNSON ELEC H (179.HK): Price: HK$20.550, 1D chg: -5.7%, 5D chg: -5.9%, 1M chg: -12.6%
  • CHINA PUBLIC PRO (1094.HK): Price: HK$0.143, 1D chg: -5.3%, 5D chg: 10.0%, 1M chg: -5.9%
  • GOLDIN PROPERTY (283.HK): Price: HK$2.980, 1D chg: -5.1%, 5D chg: -2.0%, 1M chg: -16.5%
  • YASHILI INTL (1230.HK): Price: HK$1.710, 1D chg: -3.7%, 5D chg: -5.5%, 1M chg: -17.4%

External Market Conditions

• US Market: Almost flat, with Fed minutes suggesting a possible rate hike in June.
• ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, putting HSI down 122 points.
• Interest Rates: US 2-year Treasury yield at 0.8918%, 10-year at 1.8504%, and 30-year at 2.6548%.
• Exchange Rates: USD/HKD at 7.7667, with a small decline.
• Commodities and Precious Metals:
  • New York Crude Oil: US$48.19/bbl, down US$0.12
  • New York Gold: US$1,274.4/oz, down US$2.5
  • CRB Index: 185.4, up 1.1%
  • Comex Gold: 1,261.2, down 0.8%
  • Comex Silver: 16.910, down 1.1%
  • Nymex WTI Crude: 47.96, up 2.7%
  • ICE Brent Crude: 48.62, up 1.1%
  • LME Copper: 4,612.50, down 2.0%
  • LME Aluminum: 1,551.50, down 0.8%

Key Insights

• The Fed's April minutes suggested a potential rate hike in June, increasing the probability to 32% from 12%, causing renewed market concerns.
• Tencent (700.HK) reported a 39.3% year-over-year (yoy) increase in net profit, but online advertising revenue only grew by 73% yoy and declined 18% quarter-over-quarter (qoq), leading to a potential stock price retreat.
• Technovator International (1206.HK) is undervalued with a strong cash position, suggesting potential for growth through acquisitions and business development.
• FDG Vehicles (729.HK) and Pan Asia Mining (8173.HK) are highlighted as top picks due to potential rebounds and growth opportunities.
• The HSI and HSCEI both showed declines, with the HSI falling 292 points and HSCEI 124 points, indicating a challenging market environment.
• The A-share premium to H-share was notable, with some stocks showing a significant premium, indicating potential for value investing.

Conclusion

The Hong Kong market faces pressure from rising interest rate expectations, leading to declines in key indices and sectors. However, certain stocks, such as Technovator International and FDG Vehicles, present investment opportunities due to their strong fundamentals and potential for growth. Investors should monitor the market closely for any shifts in sentiment and consider the A-share premium as a potential indicator for undervalued stocks.