20160616-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial markets for June 16, 2016, including index performance, market trends, economic data, and investment recommendations. It also highlights key market conditions, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices, as well as the A-share premium to H-share.

Main Market Trends

• Fed Policy: The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 0.25% to 0.5%, with the median projection at 0.875%. This suggests two possible rate hikes this year, although the number of committees expecting only one hike increased.
• Market Reaction: US stocks declined due to concerns over weak economic data. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and HSCEI closed at 20,467 and 8,609, respectively, showing a slight positive trend.
• ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, effectively lowering the HSI by 181 points.
• Oil and Gold: Oil prices fell due to weak demand, while gold prices rose, with the resistance now at $1,300/oz.

Market Performance

• HSI and HSCEI:
  • HSI: Closed at 20,467, down 0.6% from the previous day, down 7.0% year-to-date.
  • HSCEI: Closed at 8,609, up 0.4% from the previous day, up 11.2% year-to-date.
• Main Board Turnover: Total turnover was HK$58.5bn.
• Top Performers:
  • Tencent (700.HK): Advanced 2.8%, leading the market rebound.
  • Xinyi Solar (968.HK) and Xinyi Glass (868.HK): Issued positive profit alerts but fell due to profit-taking.
• Sector Performance:
  • Technology: Up 1.4% (5D: -4.9%, 1M: 1.3%)
  • Handset and related accessories: Up 0.8% (5D: 0.5%, 1M: 12.6%)
  • Aluminum: Up 0.7% (5D: -3.0%, 1M: -3.1%)
  • Logistics: Up 0.4% (5D: -5.2%, 1M: 0.0%)
  • Local Banks: Up 0.4% (5D: -2.6%, 1M: 3.5%)
  • Brokerages: Up 0.4% (5D: -5.8%, 1M: 4.2%)
  • Airline: Up 0.4% (5D: -2.7%, 1M: -5.7%)
  • Sports accessories: Up 0.3% (5D: -1.8%, 1M: -3.2%)
  • Dairy: Up 0.3% (5D: -1.0%, 1M: -1.0%)

Key Investment Picks

• SPDR GOLD SHARES (2840.HK):

  • Target Price: HK$1048.50
  • Stop Loss: HK$858.50
  • Reason: Expected to be a safe haven due to global uncertainties, including Brexit and potential Fed rate hikes.

• Pegasus Ent (1326.HK):

  • Target Price: HK$0.47
  • Stop Loss: HK$0.39
  • Reason: Share price showed support on the 50-day MA, expected to pick up further.

• Reorient Group (376.HK):

  • Target Price: HK$7.04
  • Stop Loss: HK$6.02
  • Reason: Strong price rally with increasing turnover and RSI above 50.

Market Data and Indices

• HSI and HSCEI:
  • HSI: 19.4 HK$bn turnover, 11.31% change.
  • HSCEI: 10.0 HK$bn turnover, 17.84% change.
• Major Indices:
  • Forward P/E and Valuations:
    • HSI: FY16E P/E at 11.1, long-term average at 11.0, deviation from average at 1.4%.
    • HSCEI: FY16E P/E at 7.2, long-term average at 7.9, deviation from average at -9.7%.
    • Shanghai Comp: FY16E P/E at 13.1, long-term average at 10.7, deviation from average at 21.6%.

External Market Conditions

• Interest Rates:

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.7181%, down 5.71 bps in 5D.
  • U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 1.6061%, down 9.61 bps in 5D.
  • HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2279%, up 0.04 bps in 5D.
  • HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.5339%, down 0.08 bps in 5D.

• Exchange Rates:

  • USD/HKD: 7.7615, down 0.0% in 5D, down 0.1% YTD.
  • EUR/USD: 1.1206, down 1.7% in 5D, down 1.0% 1M.
  • USD/JPY: 106.02, up 0.9% in 5D, up 2.8% 1M.
  • GBP/USD: 1.4112, down 2.7% in 5D, down 2.0% 1M.
  • USD/CHF: 0.9636, down 0.4% in 5D, up 1.5% 1M.
  • USD/CNY: 6.5966, down 0.5% in 5D, down 1.2% 1M.
  • USD/CNH: 6.6111, down 0.7% in 5D, down 0.9% 1M.

• Precious Metals and Commodities:

  • Comex Gold: $1,287.90, up 2.0% in 5D, up 1.2% 1M.
  • Comex Silver: $17.390, up 2.4% in 5D, up 1.5% 1M.
  • Nymex WTI Crude: $47.80, down 6.7% in 5D, down 3.4% 1M.
  • ICE Brent Crude: $49.17, down 6.4% in 5D, down 2.8% 1M.
  • LME Copper: $4,510.50, down 1.2% in 5D, down 2.5% 1M.
  • LME Aluminum: $1,610.00, up 2.9% in 5D, up 4.9% 1M.

A-share Premium to H-share

• Top Companies:
  • LUOYANG GLASS-H: A-share premium of 630.3%.
  • ZTE-H: A-share premium of 64.2%.
  • BBMG CORP-H: A-share premium of 289.0%.
  • ZIJIN MINING-H: A-share premium of 62.4%.
  • PETROCHINA-H: A-share premium of 60.3%.
  • ANHUI EXPRESS-H: A-share premium of 190.2%.
  • CHINA COSCO HO-H: A-share premium of 132.6%.
  • ICBC-H: A-share premium of 25.7%.
  • CHINA SHENHUA-H: A-share premium of 26.7%.
  • CHINA RAIL GR-H: A-share premium of 31.6%.

Conclusion

The document highlights the current market conditions, emphasizing the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the potential for stimulus from the Bank of Japan, and the impact of global uncertainties on market sentiment. It also provides key insights into the performance of major indices, top-performing stocks, and investment recommendations, making it a valuable resource for investors looking to navigate the market with informed decisions.