20160719-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global equity markets, including index performance, stock trends, sector analysis, and market data. It also includes insights on specific stocks, valuation metrics, and external market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.
Market Trends
- HSI (Hang Seng Index): Closed at 21,803, up 0.7% with a -0.5% YTD change.
- HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index): Closed at 9,091, up 0.5% with a -5.9% YTD change.
- The HSI is expected to test resistance at 22,000.
- Bonjour (653.HK) announced a profit warning, potentially testing below HK$0.339 (50-day MA).
Market and HSI Up/Down Ratios
- The ratio reflects the proportion of rising/falling stocks over the past seven trading days.
- The table includes 1,700 listed companies, excluding GEM, ETFs, unlisted, and suspended stocks.
- Market Up/Down Ratio and HSI Up/Down Ratio are shown with Bloomberg and SHKF as sources.
Result Calendar
- A list of upcoming results for various companies in Hong Kong, including:
- CHINESE EST H (127): SP INT DIV for Y.E.31/12/16
- VINDA INT'L (3331): INT RES/DIV for 6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
- CH POLYMETAL (2133): INT RES for 6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
- GEELY AUTO (175): INT RES for 6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
- PING AN (2318): INT RES/DIV for 6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
- TENCENT (700): INT RES/DIV for 6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
- HKEX (388): INT RES/DIV for 6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
Stock in Focus: Fullshare (607.HK)
- Last Close: HK$3.37
- Entry: HK$3.29
- Target: HK$3.68
- Stop-loss: HK$3.00
- YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 77.4%/ 3.1%/ 50.4%/ 171.8%
- Market Cap: HK$53.10bn
- 3M Average Daily Volume: 31.61mn shares
- Performance: Fullshare has successfully turned from loss to profit in 2015, with a RMB2.66bn revenue and RMB2.41bn from property sales. Its green building services segment grew by 7.24 times YoY with a 45% gross margin, significantly higher than its property segment.
- Business Transformation: Fullshare is shifting focus to become a pan healthcare industry player, with property development currently at 80% of total revenue and expected to reach 50% in the future.
- Financial Position: As of end-2015, Fullshare had RMB1.2bn in cash and RMB920m in total bank lending, indicating strong financial health.
Today's Top Picks
- The 13 Holdings (577): Target price HK$3.21, stop loss HK$2.85. Reason: Strong share price rally and increased turnover.
- FUTURE DATA (8229): Target price HK$0.84, stop loss HK$0.73. Reason: Price bottomed out and expected to rise further.
Sector Performance
-
Top Performing Sectors:
- Automobile: +2.7% (5D), +7.1% (1M)
- Gaming: +2.0% (5D), +6.7% (1M)
- Local Property: +1.4% (5D), +5.3% (1M)
- Sports Accessories: +1.2% (5D), +7.7% (1M)
- Chinese Banks: +1.0% (5D), +3.9% (1M)
- Durable Consumables: +0.9% (5D), +3.2% (1M)
- Marine: +0.8% (5D), +3.0% (1M)
- Local Banks: +0.8% (5D), +2.8% (1M)
- Agriculture: +0.7% (5D), +2.1% (1M)
- REITs: +0.6% (5D), +2.8% (1M)
- Telecoms Equipment: +0.6% (5D), +1.8% (1M)
- Building Materials: +0.5% (5D), +5.7% (1M)
- Toll Road: +0.5% (5D), +2.8% (1M)
- Logistics: +0.4% (5D), +2.6% (1M)
- Chinese Insurers: +0.2% (5D), +7.8% (1M)
-
Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:
- Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), Brilliance Chi (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
- Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
- Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
- Sports Accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
- Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
- Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
- Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
- Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
- Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
- REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
- Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
- Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
- Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)
- Logistics: Kerry Log Net (636), SITC (1308)
- Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices
- HSI: FY16E P/E 12.1, Long-term average P/E 11.0, Deviation 10.4%, FY1 EPS growth -10.5%, FY2 EPS growth 10.3%
- HSCEI: FY16E P/E 7.8, Long-term average P/E 7.9, Deviation -1.6%, FY1 EPS growth -8.8%, FY2 EPS growth 9.0%
- Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E 14.0, Long-term average P/E 10.7, Deviation 30.2%, FY1 EPS growth 19.9%, FY2 EPS growth 12.9%
- S&P 500: FY16E P/E 18.4, Long-term average P/E 15.3, Deviation 20.4%, FY1 EPS growth 9.0%, FY2 EPS growth 13.4%
Market Data
Best Performers
| Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D % Change | 5D % Change | 1M % Change | YTD % Change | Turnover (HK$m) | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUFENG GROUP LTD | 546.HK | 2.560 | 14.8 | 20.2 | 15.3 | 44.4 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| GREAT EAGLE | 41.HK | 37.100 | 9.9 | 16.5 | 25.5 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 14.3 |
| GOLDIN FINANCIAL | 530.HK | 4.900 | 9.9 | 8.2 | -4.1 | 24.5 | N/A | N/A |
| LENOVO GROUP | 992.HK | 5.100 | 7.6 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 1,000.7 | 9.3 | 7.9 |
| PIONEER PHARM | 1345.HK | 1.870 | 6.9 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 4.1 | 10.8 | 9.0 |
Worst Performers
| Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D % Change | 5D % Change | 1M % Change | YTD % Change | Turnover (HK$m) | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHINA OCEANWIDE | 715.HK | 0.820 | -6.8 | -1.2 | -4.7 | 5.9 | N/A | N/A |
| SINO BIOPHARM | 1177.HK | 5.400 | -6.4 | 0.2 | 6.9 | -23.5 | 19.4 | 17.0 |
| NORTH MINING SHA | 433.HK | 0.176 | -5.9 | -12.0 | 54.4 | 53.0 | N/A | N/A |
| SIHUAN PHARM | 460.HK | 1.710 | -5.5 | 1.8 | 10.3 | -60.9 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| CIMC-H | 2039.HK | 9.110 | -5.1 | -5.7 | -6.9 | -35.8 | 13.8 | 10.7 |
HSCI Volume Filter
- A list of stocks with notable volume changes in the HSCI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index):
- TIAN LUN GAS (1600.HK): Price HK$5.750, 1D % Change 0.5, Avg. Vol. 0.2, % Increase 2.4
- FUFENG GROUP LTD (546.HK): Price HK$2.560, 1D % Change 14.8, Avg. Vol. 3.1, % Increase 17.9
- TSUI WAH HOLDING (1314.HK): Price HK$1.370, 1D % Change 1.5, Avg. Vol. 1.5, % Increase 7.7
- GOLDIN PROPERTIE (283.HK): Price HK$3.170, 1D % Change 4.3, Avg. Vol. 1.5, % Increase 6.9
Most Short Sold Stocks
- A list of stocks with high short-selling activity:
- TINGYI (322.HK): Price HK$6.950, 1D % Change -3.3, Shortsell Turnover HK$49.0, % of Total Turnover 59.1
- CHINA PACIFIC-H (2601.HK): Price HK$28.550, 1D % Change 0.0, Shortsell Turnover HK$139.4, % of Total Turnover 57.6
- YIDA CHINA (3639.HK): Price HK$3.090, 1D % Change -0.3, Shortsell Turnover HK$0.0, % of Total Turnover 51.1
- CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): Price HK$2.810, 1D % Change -6.8, Shortsell Turnover HK$0.0, % of Total Turnover 134.7
- CHINA SOUTHERN-H (1055.HK): Price HK$4.820, 1D % Change 4.82, Shortsell Turnover HK$0.0, % of Total Turnover 102.8
External Market Conditions
- U.S. Markets: Extended gains, with Dow at 18,533, S&P 500 at 2,166, and NASDAQ at 5,055.
- ADR Impact: ADRs dropped in the U.S., effectively putting HSI down 73 points, closing at 21,730.
- Oil Prices: New York crude oil futures closed at US$45.24/bbl, down US$0.71.
- Gold Prices: New York gold futures settled at US$1,329.30/oz, up US$1.90.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
| Market | Latest (%) | 5D % Change | 1M % Change | YTD % Change | y-y % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield | 0.6775 | -1.16 | -1.52 | -37.02 | 1.20 |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | 1.5646 | 5.46 | -4.32 | -70.48 | -78.23 |
| U.S. 30-year Treasury yield | 2.2767 | 5.30 | -14.29 | -73.91 | -80.61 |
| HK 1-month HIBOR | 0.2416 | -0.05 | 2.11 | 2.05 | 0.47 |
| HK 3-month HIBOR | 0.5550 | 0.82 | 2.79 | 16.14 | 16.90 |
| SH 1-month HIBOR | 2.7990 | -2.40 | -6.00 | -20.30 | -25.20 |
| SH 3-month HIBOR | 2.8700 | -3.70 | -8.68 | -21.52 | -28.20 |
Precious Metals and Commodities
| Commodity | Latest | 5D % Change | 1M % Change | YTD % Change | y-y % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB Index | 188.2 | 0.8 | -2.2 | 6.8 | -12.3 |
| Comex Gold | 1,329.1 | -0.5 | 2.6 | 25.4 | 17.4 |
| Comex Silver | 20.050 | -0.6 | 15.2 | 45.3 | 35.2 |
| Nymex WTI Crude | 45.14 | -3.5 | -5.9 | 21.9 | -11.3 |
| ICE Brent Crude | 46.87 | -3.3 | -4.7 | 25.7 | -17.9 |
| LME Copper | 4,939.00 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 | -9.9 |
| LME Aluminum | 1,659.00 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 10.1 | -2.2 |
| CBT Wheat | 427.50 | -2.5 | -11.2 | -9.0 | -22.8 |
| CBT Corn | 355.25 | 0.9 | -18.8 | -1.0 | -15.5 |
| CBT Soybean | 1075.25 | -2.4 | -7.3 | 23.4 | 6.0 |
A-share Premium to H-share
| Company | H Share Code | H Price (HK$) | A Share Code | A Price (RMB) | A-share Premium to H-share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 4.67 | 600876 | 28.12 | 596.4 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H | 1057 | 9.31 | 002703 | 30.35 | 277.0 |
| GREAT WALL MOT-H | 2333 | 7.11 | 601633 | 10.04 | 63.3 |
| ANHUI EXPRESS-H | 995 | 6.22 | 600012 | 15.39 | 186.2 |
| CHINA VANKE-H | 2202 | 15.44 | 000002 | 17.43 | 30.6 |
| SHENZHEN EXPRE-H | 548 | 6.98 | 600548 | 8.46 | 40.2 |
| CHINA OILFIELD-H | 2883 | 6.21 | 601808 | 12.60 | 134.7 |
| CHINA COSCO HO-H | 1919 | 2.84 | 601919 | 5.36 | 118.3 |
| CHINA SOUTHERN-H | 1055 | 4.82 | 600029 | 8.45 | 102.8 |
| JIANGXI COPPER-H | 1044 | 19.58 | 600196 | 20.94 | 23.7 |
| BEIJING NORTH-H | 588 | 2.51 | 601588 | 4.25 | 95.8 |
| ANGANG STEEL-H | 347 | 3.91 | 000898 | 4.17 | 23.4 |
| JIANGXI COPPER-H | 1044 | 19.58 | 600196 | 20.94 | 23.7 |
| CHINA RAIL GR-H | 390 | 5.96 | 601390 | 6.97 | 35.3 |
| DATANG INTL PO-H | 991 | 1.91 | 601991 | 4.05 | 145.2 |
| CHINA LIFE-H | 2628 | 17.68 | 601628 | 21.64 | 41.6 |
| BANKCOMM-H | 3328 | 5.19 | 601328 | 5.69 | 26.8 |
| ABC-H | 1288 | 2.87 | 601288 | 3.12 | 25.7 |
| CHINA COM CONS-H | 1800 | 8.77 | 601800 | 10.95 | 44.4 |
| SHANGHAI PHARM-H | 2607 | 17.88 | 601607 | 19.55 | 26.5 |
| GUANGZHOU AUTO-H | 2238 | 10.42 | 601238 | 23.25 | 158.1 |
| ZOOMLION HEAVY-H | 1157 | 2.44 | 000157 | 4.21 | 99.6 |
Key Information Summary
- Market Performance: The Hong Kong and global markets showed mixed results, with the U.S. markets extending gains and the HSI slightly down.
- Stock Highlights: Fullshare (607.HK) is a top performer with a strong financial position and growth potential. Lenovo (992.HK) and other companies also had notable performance.
- Sector Analysis: The Automobile, Gaming, and Local Property sectors showed the best performance.
- Valuation Metrics: The HSI and HSCEI have forward P/E ratios indicating potential undervaluation or overvaluation.
- Short Selling: Several stocks, including TINGYI and CHINA PACIFIC-H, showed high short selling activity.
- Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: U.S. interest rates were lower, and the USD/HKD exchange rate showed a slight decline.
- Commodities and Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices rose, while crude oil prices fell.
- A-share Premium: A-share prices significantly outperformed H-share prices for many listed companies.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
