20160511-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, including key indices, market performance, result calendars, stock highlights, and valuation data. It also includes insights on specific stocks, sector performance, and external market conditions such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities.
Main Market Indices
| Index | Close | Daily Change (%) | YTD Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng Index (HSI) | 20,243 | 0.4 | (7.6) |
| HSCEI | 8,486 | 0.4 | (12.2) |
| Shanghai Comp | 2,833 | 0.0 | (20.0) |
| Shenzhen Comp | 1,802 | (0.1) | (21.9) |
- The HSI and HSCEI closed with small gains.
- The Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite experienced declines year-to-date.
External Market Conditions
- US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised up the average price of crude oil for 2016, likely to stimulate oil-related stocks.
- US stocks ended higher, with the Dow and S&P recording their best one-day gain in two months.
- Oil prices rose to $44.66/bbl, with gold slightly down at $1,266.60/oz.
- ADRs rose, effectively pushing HSI up 47 points.
Hong Kong Market Turnover
| Index | Turnover (HK$bn) | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| HSI | 17.6 | 10.32% |
| HSCCI | 4.7 | 45.78% |
| HSCEI | 11.9 | 12.12% |
| Main Board | 59.8 | 9.46% |
- The Hong Kong Main Board saw a significant increase in turnover.
- The HSCCI had the highest daily change, indicating increased trading activity.
Yesterday's Hong Kong Equities Performance
- Hong Kong stocks fluctuated throughout the day, with the HSI finishing up 85 points.
- China's State Council announced measures to stabilize foreign trade, stimulating shipping stocks.
- Pacific Basin Shipping (2343.HK) and China Shipping Development (1138.HK) advanced by 4.8% and 2.2% respectively.
- Resource stocks showed mixed performance, with Jiangxi Copper (358.HK) down 2% and Angang Steel (347.HK) up 2.2%.
Market and HSI Up/Down Ratios
- The ratio captures the proportion of rising/falling stocks in the past seven trading days.
- It reflects the market's overall performance and sentiment.
- Source: Bloomberg and SHKF
Result Calendar (Reference)
| Date | Stock Name | Stock Code | Type | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/5/2016 | C.P. POKPHAND | 43 | RESULTS | 3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16 |
| 11/5/2016 | HKEX | 388 | RESULTS | 3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16 |
| 11/5/2016 | HUA HONG SEMI | 1347 | QUARTER RESULTS | 3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16 |
| 12/5/2016 | WEIYE HOLDINGS | 1570 | QUARTER RESULTS | QTR ENDED31/03/16 |
| 13/05/2016 | ELEC & ELTEK | 1151 | RESULTS | 3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16 |
| 18/05/2016 | TENCENT | 700 | 1ST QUARTER RES/DIV | 3-MTH-ENDED31/03/16 |
- The table is for reference and may not be exhaustive.
- Investors are advised to refer to HKEx for more details.
Stock in Focus: HKT-SS (6823.HK)
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Last Close | 11.24 |
| Entry | 11.02 |
| Target | 13.20 |
| Stop-loss | 10.00 |
| YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change | 13.5%/5.6%/8.3%/11.5% |
| Market Cap | HK$85.11bn |
| 3M Avg. Daily Vol | 12.77mn shares |
| FY1 Forward P/E | 19.2 |
- HKT-SS is a telecommunications services operator in Hong Kong.
- The company reported strong results in 2015, with a 32% increase in net profit and 20.5% rise in revenue.
- Its EBITDA margin remained above 36%, and EBITDA showed steady growth.
- Mobile communication services revenue rose 60% YoY due to the acquisition of CSL.
- The company is expected to continue its growth in 2016.
- It is trading at a forward P/E of 19x, lower than the five-year average of 22x.
- Buy at below HK$11.02 with a target of HK$13.20 and a stop-loss at HK$10.00.
Today's Top Picks
-
Safety Godown (237.HK):
- Price: HK$23.60
- Target: HK$26.00
- Stop-loss: HK$22.55
- Reason: Support on 10-day MA, strong rally, rising turnover.
-
AID Partners (8088.HK):
- Price: HK$0.166
- Target: HK$0.186
- Stop-loss: HK$0.156
- Reason: 1Q loss narrowed, expected to test 20-day MA.
Sector Performance Overview
| Sector | Daily Change (%) | 5D Change (%) | 1M Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marine | 2.4 | -3.1 | -3.0 |
| Agriculture | 2.4 | -4.4 | -12.2 |
| Durable Consumables | 1.5 | -1.0 | 3.1 |
| Chinese Telecoms | 0.9 | -1.6 | -6.7 |
| HK Telecoms | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Heavy Machinery | 0.8 | -5.6 | -12.4 |
| Telecoms Equipment | 0.8 | -4.2 | -2.1 |
| Environmental and New Energy | 0.7 | -1.4 | -3.9 |
| Gas | 0.7 | -2.4 | -4.1 |
| Chinese Banks | 0.5 | -2.4 | -2.2 |
| Dairy | 0.4 | 0.1 | -1.6 |
| Medical | 0.3 | -1.4 | -5.8 |
| Brokerages | 0.3 | -4.9 | -11.9 |
| Gaming | 0.2 | -3.5 | -8.7 |
| Technology | 0.2 | -1.5 | -1.9 |
- Marine and Agriculture sectors were the best performers.
- Other sectors showed mixed results, with Chinese Telecoms and HK Telecoms showing slight gains.
- Brokerages, Medical, and Gaming sectors saw declines.
Major Stocks of Best Performing Sectors
| Sector | Major Stocks |
|---|---|
| Marine | OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866) |
| Agriculture | First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983) |
| Durable Consumables | Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070) |
| Chinese Telecoms | China Telecom (728), China Unicom (762), China Mobile (941) |
| HK Telecoms | HutchTel HK (215), Smartone (315), HKT-SS (6823) |
| Heavy Machinery | Sany Int'l (631), Zoomlion (1157), Lonking (3339), Sinotruk (3808) |
| Telecoms Equipment | China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342) |
| Environmental and New Energy | China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816) |
| Gas | China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193) |
| Chinese Banks | CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988) |
| Dairy | Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863) |
| Medical | Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607) |
| Brokerages | First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881) |
| Gaming | Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282) |
| Technology | Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888) |
Valuation and Forward P/E of Major Indices
| Index | FY16E P/E (X) | Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E (X) | Deviation from Avg. (%) | FY1 EPS Growth (%) | FY2 EPS Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng Index | 10.9 | 11.0 | (0.7) | (7.0) | 10.3 |
| HSCEI | 7.0 | 7.9 | (12.1) | (4.7) | 9.0 |
| Shanghai Comp | 12.9 | 10.7 | 19.7 | 21.0 | 13.6 |
| S&P 500 | 17.8 | 15.3 | 16.3 | 8.9 | 13.8 |
- The Hang Seng Index is trading at a slight discount to its long-term average.
- HSCEI is significantly undervalued.
- Shanghai Composite and S&P 500 are both above their long-term averages.
Market Data: Best and Worst Performers
Best Performers
| Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | 5D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | Turnover (HK$m) | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOER POWER HOLDI | 1685.HK | 4.030 | 7.5 | -8.8 | -17.7 | 27.2 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| KINGBOARD CHEM | 148.HK | 15.480 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 13.2 | 36.3 | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| TCL MULTIMEDIA T | 1070.HK | 4.970 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 23.0 | 18.8 | 15.2 |
| HYDOO INTERNATIO | 1396.HK | 1.090 | 5.8 | 11.2 | -4.4 | 6.4 | N/A | N/A |
| PACIFIC BASIN | 2343.HK | 1.300 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 14.0 | 10.9 | N/A | N/A |
Worst Performers
| Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | 5D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | Turnover (HK$m) | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LENOVO GROUP | 992.HK | 5.230 | -8.2 | -11.2 | -11.1 | 793.3 | 35.5 | 7.7 |
| TRINITY LTD | 891.HK | 0.720 | -6.5 | -11.1 | -14.3 | 2.7 | 40.0 | 13.6 |
| COOLPAD | 2369.HK | 1.390 | -5.4 | -8.6 | 13.0 | 14.6 | 17.8 | 15.3 |
| SHENGUAN HOLDING | 829.HK | 0.710 | -5.3 | -9.0 | -13.4 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| TENWOW INTERNATI | 1219.HK | 2.030 | -5.1 | -10.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 8.1 | 7.1 |
HSCI Volume Filter
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | Avg. Vol (m shares) | Prev. Vol (m shares) | % Increase | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHINA OCEANWIDE | 715.HK | 1.040 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 52.6 | 561.9 | N/A | N/A |
| HYDOOINTERNATIO | 1396.HK | 1.090 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 356.3 | N/A | N/A |
| SHENZHOU INTL GP | 2313.HK | 38.150 | -1.9 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 269.8 | 16.7 | 14.5 |
| TRINITY LTD | 891.HK | 0.720 | -6.5 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 247.4 | 40.0 | 13.6 |
| WEST CHINA CEMEN | 2233.HK | 1.580 | -1.3 | 20.1 | 67.6 | 236.9 | 26.5 | 12.9 |
Most Short Sold Stocks
| Company | Stock Code | Price (HK$) | 1D Chg (%) | Shortsell Turnover (HK$m) | % of Total Shortsell Turnover | % of Own Turnover | FY1 P/E | FY2 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANY HEAVY EQUIP | 631.HK | 1.520 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2712.5 | 24.5 | 19.3 |
| POLYTEC ASSET HO | 208.HK | 0.660 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 166.2 | N/A | N/A |
| SHENZHOU INTL GP | 2313.HK | 38.150 | -1.9 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 14.5 |
| TRINITY LTD | 891.HK | 0.720 | -6.5 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 162.9 | 40.0 | 13.6 |
| WEST CHINA CEMEN | 2233.HK | 1.580 | -1.3 | 20.1 | 67.6 | 67.6 | 26.5 | 12.9 |
Interest Rates
| Market | Latest (%) | 5D Chg (bps) | 1M Chg (bps) | YTD Chg (bps) | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield | 0.7220 | -1.61 | 2.33 | -32.57 | 10.60 |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield | 1.7578 | -1.74 | 3.24 | -51.16 | -52.19 |
| U.S. 30-year Treasury yield | 2.6060 | -2.62 | 4.44 | -40.98 | -43.50 |
| HK 1-month HIBOR | 0.2271 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.61 | -1.26 |
| HK 3-month HIBOR | 0.5446 | -0.22 | -1.32 | 15.11 | 15.79 |
| SH 1-month HIBOR | 2.8410 | -0.50 | 4.30 | -16.10 | -37.00 |
| SH 3-month HIBOR | 2.8920 | -0.40 | 4.65 | -19.32 | -90.65 |
Exchange Rates
| Currency Pair | Latest | 5D % Chg | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Dollar Index | 94.1980 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -4.5 | -0.9 |
| USD/HKD | 7.7611 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1378 | -0.9 | -0.3 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| USD/JPY | 109.11 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| GBP/USD | 1.4461 | -0.2 | 1.6 | -1.9 | -7.2 |
| USD/CHF | 0.9751 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 2.8 | -4.2 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7376 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 1.2 | -6.5 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6815 | -1.0 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -7.1 |
| USD/CAD | 1.2912 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 7.1 | -6.3 |
| USD/CNY | 6.5158 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -4.7 |
| USD/CNH | 6.5357 | -0.3 | -1.0 | 0.5 | -4.9 |
Precious Metals and Commodities
| Commodity | Latest | 5D % Chg | 1M % Chg | YTD % Chg | y-y % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB Index | 180.3 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | -21.0 |
| Comex Gold | 1,267.7 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 19.6 | 7.2 |
| Comex Silver | 17.140 | -0.9 | 7.3 | 24.2 | 5.1 |
| Nymex WTI Crude | 44.61 | 1.9 | 10.5 | 20.4 | -24.7 |
| ICE Brent Crude | 45.47 | 1.9 | 6.2 | 22.0 | -29.9 |
| LME Copper | 4,680.00 | -4.9 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -26.7 |
| LME Aluminum | 1,554.00 | -4.8 | 2.2 | 3.1 | -17.7 |
| CBT Wheat | 461.25 | -2.1 | 3.1 | -1.9 | -4.1 |
| CBT Corn | 380.25 | 0.9 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| CBT Soybean | 1083.75 | 4.8 | 16.8 | 24.4 | 11.3 |
A-Share Premium to H-Share
| Company | H Share Code | Price (HK$) | A Share Code | Price (RMB) | A-Share Premium to H-Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUOYANG GLASS-H | 1108 | 4.57 | 600876 | 27.36 | 613.2 |
| ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H | 1057 | 8.03 | 002703 | 25.28 | 275.0 |
| SHANDONG MOLON-H | 568 | 2.88 | 000488 | 8.79 | 263.6 |
| ANHUI EXPRESS-H | 2009 | 4.97 | 601992 | 7.95 | 90.5 |
| SINOPEC SHANG-H | 338 | 3.57 | 600688 | 6.13 | 104.5 |
| CCB-H | 939 | 4.75 | 601939 | 4.69 | 17.6 |
| ICBC-H | 1398 | 3.99 | 601398 | 4.16 | 24.2 |
| CHINA COAL EN-H | 1898 | 4.03 | 600188 | 8.99 | 165.7 |
| CHINA OILFIELD-H | 2883 | 5.90 | 600688 | 12.37 | 149.7 |
- The A-share premium to H-share is notably high for many companies.
- This indicates a potential undervaluation in the H-share market.
Summary of Key Points
- HKT-SS is a strong performer with solid results and attractive valuation.
- HSCEI is significantly undervalued compared to its long-term average.
- Marine and Agriculture sectors led the market on the previous day.
- Oil prices increased due to reduced supply concerns, potentially boosting oil-related stocks.
- US stocks showed positive momentum, with the Dow and S&P 500 having their best one-day gain in two months.
- The A-share premium to H-share is high, suggesting H-shares may be undervalued.
- Short-selling activity was notable in certain stocks, with Sany Heavy Equipment and Trinity Ltd showing significant short sell volumes.
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