20160720-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, including key indices, stock performance, corporate news, and market conditions. It highlights trends, results, and valuation data for major stocks and indices, along with insights into short-selling activity, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.

Main Market Trends

HSI (Hang Seng Index) closed at 21,673, down 0.6% from the previous day and down 1.1% year-to-date.
HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) closed at 8,988, down 1.1% from the previous day and up 7.0% year-to-date.
The Hong Kong market turnover was HK$54.9bn, with HSI down 6.08% and HSCEI down 9.16%.
China Overseas Property (2669.HK) announced a positive profit alert, expecting a 100% YoY increase in profit for the six months ended 30 June 2016, which may benefit China Overseas Land & Investment.
Tsui Wah (1314.HK) announced a potential disposal of shares, which may result in a change in control. It currently has 878,956,000 shares in potential vendors, representing 62.28% of issued shares.

Market and Index Performance

The Hang Seng Index Up/Down Ratio shows a mix of rising and falling stocks, with 1,700 listed companies (excluding GEM, ETFs, and unlisted/suspended companies) being considered.
The HSCEI Up/Down Ratio also indicates a mixed market sentiment.
The U.S. market saw S&P and NASDAQ drop following Netflix's worse-than-expected earnings, while the Dow Jones rose for eight consecutive sessions.
ADR (American Depositary Receipts) dropped, effectively putting HSI down 108 points.
Oil prices fell due to the IMF's downward revision of global growth, with New York crude oil futures closing at $44.65/bbl.
Gold prices rose to $1,332.30/oz.

Today's Top Picks

Everchina Int'l (202.HK): Target price HK$0.315, with a buy recommendation due to a strong share price rally and increased turnover.
Talent Pvt Gp (760.HK): Target price HK$0.173, expected to test the 100-day moving average.

Sector Performance

The best performing sectors included Medical (+1.3%), Logistics (+1.1%), Gas (+0.6%), and Agriculture (+0.3%).
The worst performing sectors included Handset and related accessories (-0.2%), Technology (-0.0%), and Department Store (-0.1%).
Major stocks in best performing sectors: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607).
Best performing stocks include ESPRIT HLDGS (330.HK) and SIHUAN PHARM (460.HK), while worst performers include NORTH MINING SHA (1396.HK) and CHINA SINGYES SO (750.HK).

Valuation and Forward P/E

Hang Seng Index: FY16E P/E 12.1, long-term average 11.0, deviation +10.3%, FY1 EPS growth -11.0%, FY2 EPS growth 10.9%.
HSCEI: FY16E P/E 7.7, long-term average 7.9, deviation -2.6%, FY1 EPS growth -8.9%, FY2 EPS growth 9.0%.
Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E 14.0, long-term average 10.7, deviation +29.9%, FY1 EPS growth 19.9%, FY2 EPS growth 12.9%.
S&P 500: FY16E P/E 18.4, long-term average 15.3, deviation +20.2%, FY1 EPS growth 9.2%, FY2 EPS growth 13.3%.

A-Share Premium to H-Share

A list of companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets is provided, along with their A-share premium to H-share.
For example, LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108.HK) has an A-share premium of 599.0%, while CHINA SHIPPING-H (1138.HK) has an A-share premium of 65.5%.
SHENJI GROUP-H (300.HK) has a premium of 222.9%, and CHINA VANKE-H (2202.HK) has a premium of 29.5%.

Key Information

China Mobile (941.HK): Strong performance driven by upbeat 4G sales and positive outlook for fixed-line business. It has a dividend yield of 3%, with a target price of HK$103.
Short sold stocks include HYDOOINTERNATIO (1396.HK), CHINA RESOURCES (291.HK), MMG (1208.HK), and CATHAY PAC AIR (293.HK).
Interest rates and exchange rates are provided, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at 1.5543% and USD/HKD at 7.7556.
Precious metals and commodities include Comex Gold (1,333.0), Comex Silver (19.975), and Nymex WTI Crude (44.76).

Summary of Key Points

The Hong Kong market experienced a decline, with the HSI and HSCEI both showing negative daily and year-to-date changes.
Corporate news highlights include Tsui Wah's potential share disposal and China Overseas Property's profit alert.
The U.S. market was mixed, with the Dow rising and S&P and NASDAQ falling.
China Mobile is highlighted as a top pick due to its strong performance in 4G and fixed-line services.
Everchina Int'l and Talent Pvt Gp are recommended for their potential to rise.
The A-share premium to H-share is significant for several companies, indicating a potential investment opportunity.
Sector performance varies, with Medical, Logistics, and Gas showing positive trends, while others like Technology and Department Store lagged.