20160810-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content

Market Trends and Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) showed mixed performance, with HSI closing at 22,465 and HSCEI at 9,301. The HSI is expected to test the next resistance level of 22,560 in the short term.
Market Data: The Hong Kong market experienced a slight decline in overall turnover, with HSI at HK$20.8 billion and a 17.64% drop, while HSCCI showed a 7.08% increase. Main Board turnover was HK$60.8 billion with a 12.42% decline.
External Market Conditions: US stocks extended their upward trend, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high. The Dow and S&P 500 showed minimal changes. ADRs indicated a positive impact on HSI. Crude oil prices declined slightly, while gold prices rose due to a weaker US dollar.
Yesterday's Performers: China's consumer prices rose 1.8% YoY, and PPI dropped 1.7% YoY, indicating a weak economic environment. Hong Kong stocks saw a slight decline, with HSI down 29 points and HSCEI up 24 points.
Stock in Focus: Blue Sky Power H (6828.HK) showed strong shareholder support and a "buy" signal after a significant price drop. It is forecasted to have positive results and has a target price of HK$0.45.
Today's Top Picks: Selected based on price movement, technical analysis, and corporate news. Goldenmars (3638) and QinQin Food (1583) are highlighted with target prices of HK$0.53 and HK$3.72 respectively.
Sector Performance: The best performing sectors included Steel, Infrastructure, and Handset and related accessories, with notable percentage increases. The worst performers included companies like Tenwow International and Yanchang Petro.
Valuations and Forward P/E: The HSI had a forward P/E of 12.5, while the HSCEI had 8.0. The Shanghai Composite Index had a higher P/E ratio of 14.0, indicating potential overvaluation.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: US interest rates showed slight increases, while HK interest rates remained stable. The USD/HKD exchange rate slightly decreased, and gold prices increased.
Precious Metals and Commodities: The CRB Index increased, while Comex Gold and Silver declined. Crude oil prices showed mixed results, with Nymex WTI Crude up and ICE Brent Crude also showing an increase.
A-Share Premium to H-Share: A significant premium exists for many companies, with some showing over 150% premiums, indicating potential for value investing in H-shares.

Main Points

Market Trends: The HSI and HSCEI showed mixed performance, with the HSI expected to test a new resistance level. The overall market turnover decreased, but some sectors performed well.
Blue Sky Power H (6828.HK): Strong shareholder support and a "buy" signal after a substantial price drop. The stock has a target price of HK$0.45 and a stop loss of HK$0.37.
Today's Top Picks: Goldenmars (3638) and QinQin Food (1583) are highlighted with potential for further price increases. Goldenmars has a target price of HK$0.53, and QinQin Food has a target of HK$3.72.
Sector Highlights: The Steel, Infrastructure, and Handset sectors showed strong performance. The Coal and Telecoms Equipment sectors also had positive gains.
Valuation Analysis: The HSI and HSCEI are undervalued compared to their long-term averages, while the Shanghai Composite Index is overvalued.
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: US interest rates slightly increased, while HK rates remained stable. The USD/HKD exchange rate slightly decreased, and gold prices rose.
Commodities and Precious Metals: The CRB Index increased, but Comex Gold and Silver declined. Crude oil prices showed mixed results, with WTI Crude up and Brent Crude also up.
A-Share Premiums: Many companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets showed significant premiums, indicating potential value opportunities in H-shares.

Key Information

HSI and HSCEI: HSI closed at 22,465, down 29 points, while HSCEI closed at 9,301, up 24 points. The HSI is expected to test 22,560.
Blue Sky Power H: Strong shareholder support from Beijing Gas, with a target price of HK$0.45 and a stop loss at HK$0.37.
Top Picks: Goldenmars (3638) and QinQin Food (1583) are recommended for potential price increases.
Sector Performance: Steel, Infrastructure, and Handset sectors led the market, while Coal and Telecoms Equipment also showed positive movement.
Valuation Metrics: HSI and HSCEI are undervalued, while the Shanghai Composite Index is overvalued.
Interest Rates: US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased, while HK interest rates remained stable.
Exchange Rates: USD/HKD slightly decreased, and the USD Dollar Index rose.
Commodities: Crude oil prices increased, while gold and silver prices declined.
A-Share Premiums: Multiple companies showed over 150% premiums, indicating potential for value investing in H-shares.