20180703-凯基证券亚洲-Market_Overview_5页_211kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• 29 Jun: 28,955 (+458)
• 28 Jun: 28,497 (+141)
• 27 Jun: 28,356 (-525)
• Market Turnover (mn): 115,295
• HSI Turnover ($bn): 48.29
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-days MA: 29,176
  • 50-days MA: 30,396
  • 250-days MA: 29,356
  • 14-days RSI: 37.5
  • Primary Resistance: 29,356
  • Primary Support: 28,169

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI)

• 29 Jun: 11,073 (+205)
• 28 Jun: 10,868 (-10)
• 27 Jun: 10,879 (-240)
• Market Turnover ($bn): 38.32
• HSCEI Turnover ($bn): 42.44
• Technical Indicators:
  • 10-days MA: 11,272
  • 50-days MA: 11,979
  • 250-days MA: 11,735
  • 14-days RSI: 31.3
  • Primary Resistance: 12,139
  • Primary Support: 10,500

Market Outlook

• The Hang Seng Index is expected to trade between 28,600-29,000 today.
• Despite a rebound on Friday, the overall downtrend of the HSI is not yet reversed.
• HSCEI showed a slight increase on Friday, but the fundamental outlook for the Hong Kong market remains weak, limiting upside potential.
• Initial support for HSI is at 250 Day SMA, while the primary support is 28,169.

Hong Kong Market Highlights

• Stock Advances on 29 Jun: 1,255
• Stock Declines on 29 Jun: 477
• Market Turnover on 29 Jun: 115.3 billion HKD
• High-performing stocks:
  • Country Garden (2007.HK): Rose 11.3%
  • Tencent (700.HK): Rose 3.9%
• US market opened weak on the first trading day of July due to concerns about potential U.S. protectionist policies and retaliatory measures.
• The Dow and Nasdaq recovered, with the Dow rising 36 points and the Nasdaq 57 points.
• Investors' focus this week will be on trade war developments and non-farm payroll data.

Macau Gaming Revenue

• June 2018 gaming revenue reached 22.5 billion Macau dollars, up 12.5% YoY, at the low end of market expectations (12-20%).
• June 2018 was 4.5-20.1% below May 2018 revenue.
• May 2018 revenue also showed a 12% YoY increase, but the growth has slowed from the 20%+ seen in the first four months of the year.
• RMB depreciation is a concern for Macau gaming revenue, and government uncertainty regarding future license arrangements adds to the short-term challenges.
• Current valuation of Macau gaming stocks is at 18-20x prospective P/E, which is considered fair, but valuation may not be bottomed yet.
• Sector top picks: Galaxy (0027) and Sands (1928).
• Galaxy Ent (27.HK):
  • Closed price: 60.75
  • Expected P/E: 19.6
  • Dividend yield: 1.5%
  • 52-week high: 73.85
  • 52-week low: 43.16
  • 14-days RSI: 27.8

IPO Brief: BEXCELLENT GP (1775)

• Industry sector: Education
• Issue price (HK$): 0.9-1.1
• Total share offer size (HK$ mn): 113-138
• P/E (x): 13.2-16.1
• P/B (x): 2.7
• Sponsor: VMS
• Dealing period: 13–July
• Main business:
  • Private supplementary secondary school education services
  • Operation of private secondary day schools
  • Ancillary education services and products
• Market share:
  • Top provider of private supplementary secondary school education services in Hong Kong (as of February 2017)
  • Top provider of private secondary day schools following HKDSE curriculum
• Revenue composition:
  • Private supplementary secondary school education services: ~91.7% of revenue
  • Top Five Tutors' courses and products: ~60% of revenue
• Challenges:
  • Slower growth in secondary school population and birth rate
  • High concentration risk
  • Operating lease payments represent >10% of total revenue
  • Application of HKFRS 16 may increase debt-to-equity ratio
• Rating: Neutral

Stock Connect Statistics

SH-HK Connect Southbound

• Combined Southbound Balance (RMB bn): 81.4
• Balance as % of Quota Amount: 96.8%

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

1. TENCENT (700): Turnover 809,179,020
2. FULLSHARE (607): Turnover 658,108,275
3. ICBC (1398): Turnover 619,517,210
4. GEELY AUTO (175): Turnover 464,494,910
5. SUNAC (1918): Turnover 416,915,300
6. CM BANK (3968): Turnover 244,394,075
7. CHINA RES POWER (836): Turnover 216,711,520
8. MENGENIU DAIRY (2319): Turnover 208,829,850
9. CCB (939): Turnover 201,561,940
10. GAC GROUP (2238): Turnover 182,228,280

SZ-HK Connect Southbound

• Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks:
  1. TENCENT (700): Turnover 496,385,460
  2. SINO BIOPHARM (1177): Turnover 215,745,120
  3. CCB (939): Turnover 195,019,700
  4. SUNAC (1918): Turnover 189,024,500
  5. CSPC PHARMA (1093): Turnover 180,345,100
  6. FULLSHARE (607): Turnover 158,724,950
  7. CHINA SOUTH AIR (1055): Turnover 123,771,260
  8. CHINA EDU GROUP (839): Turnover 111,359,540
  9. KINGDEE INT'L (268): Turnover 110,768,440
  10. HKEX (388): Turnover 105,958,008

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks

1. TENCENT (700): 3.91% change, closed at 393.80, turnover 11,019.0 million
2. PING AN (2318): 1.33% change, closed at 72.20, turnover 4,360.1 million
3. CCB (939): 2.40% change, closed at 7.25, turnover 3,242.5 million
4. COUNTRY GARDEN (2007): 11.29% change, closed at 13.80, turnover 2,351.3 million
5. ICBC (1398): 2.27% change, closed at 5.87, turnover 2,264.6 million
6. AIA (1299): 0.73% change, closed at 68.60, turnover 1,895.3 million
7. HKEX (388): 1.55% change, closed at 236.00, turnover 1,518.3 million
8. CM BANK (3968): 3.39% change, closed at 28.95, turnover 1,447.3 million
9. BANK OF CHINA (3988): 1.57% change, closed at 3.89, turnover 1,394.7 million
10. TALENT LIEPIN (6100): 0.00% change, closed at 32.50, turnover 1,307.2 million

Ten Short Sell Stocks

1. PING AN (02318.HK): Short Sell 1.23B, Turnover 6.22B, Short Sell Ratio 19.81%
2. TENCENT (00700.HK): Short Sell 1.16B, Turnover 10.39B, Short Sell Ratio 11.14%
3. ISHARES A50 (02823.HK): Short Sell 734.96M, Turnover 890.27M, Short Sell Ratio 82.56%
4. TRACKER FUND (02800.HK): Short Sell 663.51M, Turnover 1.43B, Short Sell Ratio 46.44%
5. AIA (01299.HK): Short Sell 600.93M, Turnover 2.20B, Short Sell Ratio 27.31%
6. HSCEI ETF (02828.HK): Short Sell 573.89M, Turnover 1.52B, Short Sell Ratio 37.80%
7. COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK): Short Sell 407.23M, Turnover 1.61B, Short Sell Ratio 25.31%
8. CNOOC (00883.HK): Short Sell 358.98M, Turnover 1.38B, Short Sell Ratio 26.08%
9. EVERGRANDE (03333.HK): Short Sell 257.60M, Turnover 746.78M, Short Sell Ratio 34.50%
10. CSOP A50 ETF (02822.HK): Short Sell 257.22M, Turnover 414.34M, Short Sell Ratio 62.08%

Economic Calendars

• Mon: U.S. Jun. Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (54.6), Euro Zone Jun. Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (55.0), China Jun. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (51.1)
• Tue: U.S. May. Factory Orders (-0.2%), May. Durable Goods Orders Final (-0.6%), Euro Zone May. Retail Sales YoY (1.7%)
• Wed: U.S. Market closed (Independence Day)
• Thu: U.S. Jun. Initial Jobless Claim (Till Jun 30), Jun. Continuing Jobless Claim (Till Jun 23)
• Fri: U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes (Jun 13), Jun. Unemployment Rate (3.8%), Jun. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (198K), May. Trade Balance (-46.7B)

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only.
• No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this report.
• This report is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.
• It may not be reproduced or published without the prior written consent of KGI Asia Ltd.