20171204-凯基证券亚洲-Market_Overview_5页_442kb

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

Hang Seng Index (HSI)

• Closing Price (1 Dec): 29,074 points
• Change (1 Dec): -103 points
• Turnover (1 Dec): HK$150.5 billion
• HSCEI Closing Price (1 Dec): 11,449 points
• HSCEI Change (1 Dec): -29 points
• HSCEI Turnover (1 Dec): HK$23 billion

Technical Analysis (HSI)

• 10-day MA: 29,590 points
• 50-day MA: 28,666 points
• 250-day MA: 25,668 points
• 14-day RSI: 48.64
• Primary Resistance: 29,303 points
• Primary Support: 28,666 points

Technical Analysis (HSCEI)

• 10-day MA: 11,707 points
• 50-day MA: 11,493 points
• 250-day MA: 10,573 points
• 14-day RSI: 44.43
• Primary Resistance: 11,657 points
• Primary Support: 11,235 points

HSI Futures

• Dec Futures Closing Price: 29,116 points
• Dec Futures Volume: 157,998 contracts
• Dec Futures Open Interest: 166,003 contracts
• Jan Futures Closing Price: 29,161 points
• Jan Futures Volume: 1,593 contracts
• Jan Futures Open Interest: 3,689 contracts

HSCEI Futures

• Dec Futures Closing Price: 11,479 points
• Dec Futures Volume: 78,193 contracts
• Dec Futures Open Interest: 276,479 contracts
• Jan Futures Closing Price: 11,498 points
• Jan Futures Volume: 1,734 contracts
• Jan Futures Open Interest: 2,697 contracts

Market Outlook

• HSI: Expected to trade between 28,800-29,200 points today.
• HSCEI: Expected to trade within a similar range.
• Stock Performance: Heavy selling pressure on blue chip technology stocks, with Tencent falling 3.3%.
• Macau Gaming Revenue: November revenue rose 22.6% YoY to 23 billion, beating expectations. VIP and mass market revenue also increased.
• Macau Valuation: High, with 26x FY17 and 23x FY18 P/E ratios, which may limit short-term upside.
• Galaxy Entertainment (0027): Outstanding revenue and earnings, but valuation is not attractive. Suggest accumulation during weakness.
• MGM China (2282): Share price rose due to new casino opening, but volatility may persist.

Stock Performance Highlights

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT (700): High turnover, significant sell trades.
• HSBC HOLDINGS (5): High short sell ratio.
• SUNAC (1918): High turnover, net sell trades.
• PING AN (2318): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• CPIC (2601): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• SMIC (981): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• COUNTRY GARDEN (2007): High turnover, significant sell trades.
• CM BANK (3968): High short sell ratio.
• NCI (1336): Net sell trades.
• GEELY AUTO (175): Net sell trades.

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

• TENCENT (700): High turnover, net sell trades.
• SUNAC (1918): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• ZTE (763): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• CHINA VANKE (2202): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• EVERGRANDE (3333): High short sell ratio.
• SMIC (981): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• CHINA TAIPING (966): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• CPIC (2601): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• GENSCRIPT BIO (1548): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.
• AAC TECH (2018): Net sell trades, moderate turnover.

Top 10 Short Sell Stocks

• TENCENT (00700.HK): Short sell ratio of 4.91%, high turnover.
• COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK): Short sell ratio of 32.28%, high turnover.
• SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK): Short sell ratio of 29.28%, high turnover.
• PING AN (02318.HK): Short sell ratio of 7.86%, high turnover.
• HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK): Short sell ratio of 18.61%, high turnover.
• BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK): Short sell ratio of 26.28%, high turnover.
• ICBC (01398.HK): Short sell ratio of 20.12%, moderate turnover.
• CCB (00939.HK): Short sell ratio of 10.27%, moderate turnover.
• CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK): Short sell ratio of 23.18%, moderate turnover.
• AIA (01299.HK): Short sell ratio of 12.75%, moderate turnover.

Economic Calendar Highlights

• Monday:

  • US: Factory Orders (MoM) for October expected at 0.6% (Prior: 1.4%)
  • Eur Zone: Product Price Index (YoY) for October expected at 2.9% (Prior: 2.9%)

• Tuesday:

  • Australia: RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • China: Caixi PMI Composite for November (Prior: 51.0)
  • US: Markit PMI Composite for November (Prior: 54.6)

• Wednesday:

  • Eur Zone: ECB Meeting (Non-monetary policy)
  • US: EIA Crude Oil Stock Change (Dec 1)

• Thursday:

  • Eur Zone: GDP (YoY) for Q3
  • China: November Foreign Exchange Reserves

• Friday:

  • US: Unemployment Rate for November (Expected: 4.2%, Prior: 4.1%)
  • US: Nonfarm Payrolls for November (Expected: 185K, Prior: 261K)
  • China: Exports (Nov) (Expected: 5.1%, Prior: 6.9%)
  • China: Imports (Nov) (Expected: 12.0%, Prior: 17.2%)
  • China: CPI (Nov) (Expected: 1.8%, Prior: 1.9%)

Company-Specific Insights

Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777)

• Contracted Sales (Nov 2017): RMB7.42 billion, up 123% YoY
• Cumulative Contracted Sales (YTD): RMB73.53 billion, up 31% YoY
• Gross Profit Margin (FY17): 36.2%, up 7.9% points YoY
• Gearing (FY17): 193%, up from 160% in December 2016
• Effective Cost of Borrowing: Reduced to 5.04% from 6.57%
• Cash Reserves: RMB32.42 billion, no short-term repayment pressure
• Valuation: P/B of 1.2 times, current price trading at 31.3% premium
• Analyst Recommendation: Suggest to sell when share price rebounds

FDG Electric Vehicles (729)

• Interim Results (H1 2017): Revenue down 56% YoY to HK$284 million, loss widened to HK$547 million
• Electric Vehicle Sales (H1 2017): Down 82% YoY to HK$64.5 million, accounting for 23% of total revenue
• Gross Profit Margin: Increased to 10.4%, but still low due to low production volume
• Financial Position: Deteriorated, with bank loans and other borrowings up 41% YoY
• Cash on Hand: HK$1.22 billion
• Financing: Entered into a HK$600 million facility agreement and issued HK$400 million of convertible bonds
• Analyst Recommendation: Reiterate to avoid this stock

Disclaimer

• The information and opinions in this report are for informational purposes only.
• KGI Asia Ltd. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data.
• No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of this report.
• This report is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities.
• Reproduction or publication is prohibited without prior written consent.