20230710-安信证券-CPI会跌破0吗__8页_836kb

Summary of the Report

The report from Anxin Securities analyzes June 2023 inflation data, focusing on CPI and PPI. Key points include:

• CPI同比 decreased to 0% in June, below market expectations of 0.2%, with环比 at -0.2%.
• Core CPI rose to 0.4%同比, down from 0.6% previously.
• PPI同比 dropped to -5.4%, lower than expected -5.1%, with环比 -0.8%.

Causes for decline:

• Vegetables prices rebounded due to weather, but pork, fresh fruits, and energy prices fell.
• Consumer confidence remains weak, and international oil prices declined.

Future outlook:

• CPI may fall below 0% in July due to low pork prices and high base, with potential rebound in August, peaking around 1% by year-end.
• PPI同比 may bottom in June, but recovery to positive territory is unlikely, given slowing demand and global commodity prices.

The analysis covers consumption patterns, economic factors, and market predictions.