20240716-国金证券-公用事业及环保产业行业研究_5月用电_三产用电增量贡献率达48.7__16页_1mb

Summary of Electricity Consumption Analysis (May 2024)

1. Overall Electricity Consumption:
   In May 2024, total electricity consumption reached 775.09 billion kWh, with consistent growth across all sectors. The tertiary industry contributed 48.7% of the new electricity demand growth, playing a significant role in supporting domestic demand. This growth was also supported by a 103 percentage point increase in the primary industry (agriculture), indicating a rebound in agricultural activities.

2. Sector-Wise Breakdown:

   • TMT Sector: Electricity consumption declined by 5% year-on-year, with sub-sectors like telecommunications, internet services, and software experiencing slight decreases but showing AI-driven resilience.
   • Energy Sector: Consumption rose by 79% year-on-year, driven by pre-summer power demand and inventory restocking, with a 28 percentage point monthly increase.
   • Real Estate Sector: Growth accelerated to 101.2% year-on-year, with positive contributions from sub-sectors except construction. The four high-energy-consuming industries accounted for 368.3% of the new demand.
   • Manufacturing Sector: Growth slowed to 104.0% year-on-year, but emerging industries like electric equipment (252.1% contribution to demand) and TMT manufacturing led in innovation and performance.
   • Consumption Sector: Consumption surged by 954% year-on-year, though slightly slower than previous months, with wholesale and retail leading with a 16% growth rate.
   • Transportation Sector: Growth improved marginally to 426% year-on-year, supported by regional differences, though infrastructure and rail maintenance limited progress.

Regional Highlights:
Electricity consumption growth was concentrated in the west and south, with Shandong Province leading with an 86% contribution to overall demand growth. Provinces like Tibet and Yunnan saw growth exceeding 200%.

Investment Recommendations:

• Coal Power: Focus on companies like Huainan International (high-quality assets and renewable energy expansion) and Zhejiang Energy (cost controls and new plant capacity).
• Renewable Energy: Prioritize SinoPower Energy (distributed solar with pricing advantages).
• Nuclear Power: China National Nuclear Corporation (enhanced market prices and reforms).

Key Risks:

• Lower-than-expected renewable capacity and coal prices.
• Weak demand affecting power utilization hours.
• Delays in power market reforms.

The report underscores growing regional disparities and sector-specific drivers, highlighting key opportunities and risks in the power industry.