20160301-招商证券_香港_-Another_round_of_applause_12页_800kb

报告摘要

CBPO Financial Summary and Analysis

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive financial analysis of CBPO, covering revenue growth, margin performance, income statement projections, and valuation metrics. It includes revenue breakdowns, cost structures, and performance comparisons against major indices and industry peers.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue Growth

Expected Revenue Growth (FY15E-17E): Fast and stable growth in RMB terms.
Drivers of Growth:
- Better penetration into tier-1 cities.
- Additional plasma supply from Xinjiang Deyuan.
- New collection station in Shandong province.
- Growth in factor VIII and human prothrombin complex concentrate (PCC).
Revenue Projections (US$ '000):
- 2015A: 296,458
- 2016E: 342,644
- 2017E: 406,640
- 2018E: 484,643
Year-over-Year Growth (YoY):
- 2015A: 22%
- 2016E: 16%
- 2017E: 19%
- 2018E: 19%
Product Breakdown:
- Human Albumin: Expected to grow from 111,422 in 2015A to 170,920 in 2018E.
- Immunoglobulin Products: Expected to grow from 147,655 in 2015A to 261,453 in 2018E.
- Placenta Polypeptide Injection: Expected to grow from 27,195 in 2015A to 35,538 in 2018E.
- Others: Expected to grow from 10,186 in 2015A to 16,731 in 2018E.

Margins and Cost Structure

Gross Margin (2014A-2018E):
- 2014A: 67.1%
- 2015A: 64.1%
- 2016E: 63.0%
- 2017E: 62.5%
- 2018E: 62.5%
SG&A Expenses (as % of revenue):
- 2014A: 17.6%
- 2015A: 17.3%
- 2016E: 18.7%
- 2017E: 18.2%
- 2018E: 18.2%
Selling Expense (as % of revenue):
- 2014A: 4.4%
- 2015A: 3.4%
- 2016E: 3.2%
- 2017E: 3.2%
- 2018E: 3.2%
General and Admin Expenses (ex. R&D):
- 2014A: 13.2%
- 2015A: 14.0%
- 2016E: 15.5%
- 2017E: 15.0%
- 2018E: 15.0%
R&D Expenses (as % of revenue):
- 2014A: 1.7%
- 2015A: 2.0%
- 2016E: 2.0%
- 2017E: 2.0%
- 2018E: 2.0%
Operating Margin:
- 2014A: 45.7%
- 2015A: 44.7%
- 2016E: 42.3%
- 2017E: 42.3%
- 2018E: 42.3%
Profit Before Tax Margin:
- 2014A: 50.5%
- 2015A: 45.6%
- 2016E: 44.9%
- 2017E: 45.4%
- 2018E: 45.7%
Net Margin (GAAP):
- 2014A: 29.2%
- 2015A: 30.0%
- 2016E: 29.4%
- 2017E: 29.7%
- 2018E: 29.9%
Net Margin (Non-GAAP):
- 2014A: 31.1%
- 2015A: 33.8%
- 2016E: 35.4%
- 2017E: 37.3%
- 2018E: 38.8%

Income Statement (US$ '000)

Sales:
- 2014A: 243,252
- 2015A: 296,458
- 2016E: 342,644
- 2017E: 406,640
- 2018E: 484,643
Cost of Sales:
- 2014A: 80,025
- 2015A: 106,483
- 2016E: 126,778
- 2017E: 152,490
- 2018E: 181,741
Gross Profit:
- 2014A: 163,226
- 2015A: 189,975
- 2016E: 215,866
- 2017E: 254,150
- 2018E: 302,902
SG&A Expenses:
- 2014A: 42,837
- 2015A: 51,365
- 2016E: 64,074
- 2017E: 74,008
- 2018E: 88,205
Selling Costs:
- 2014A: 10,707
- 2015A: 9,973
- 2016E: 10,965
- 2017E: 13,012
- 2018E: 15,509
General and Admin Expenses (ex. R&D):
- 2014A: 32,130
- 2015A: 41,392
- 2016E: 53,110
- 2017E: 60,996
- 2018E: 72,696
R&D Expenses:
- 2014A: 4,162
- 2015A: 6,024
- 2016E: 6,853
- 2017E: 8,133
- 2018E: 9,693
Operating Income:
- 2014A: 111,159
- 2015A: 132,586
- 2016E: 144,938
- 2017E: 172,009
- 2018E: 205,004
Other Income (net):
- 2014A: 8,646
- 2015A: 100,150
- 2016E: 121,181
- 2017E: 151,476
- 2018E: 187,831
Finance Costs:
- 2014A: 2,947
- 2015A: 3,824
- 2016E: 3,934
- 2017E: 6,335
- 2018E: 9,179
Profit Before Taxes:
- 2014A: 122,752
- 2015A: 135,098
- 2016E: 154,012
- 2017E: 184,443
- 2018E: 221,453
Income Tax:
- 2014A: 26,640
- 2015A: 20,993
- 2016E: 24,642
- 2017E: 29,511
- 2018E: 35,432
Net Income (GAAP):
- 2014A: 70,917
- 2015A: 89,043
- 2016E: 100,799
- 2017E: 120,715
- 2018E: 144,938
Basic EPS (GAAP):
- 2014A: 2.85
- 2015A: 3.40
- 2016E: 3.68
- 2017E: 4.41
- 2018E: 5.29
Diluted EPS (GAAP):
- 2014A: 2.71
- 2015A: 3.27
- 2016E: 3.55
- 2017E: 4.25
- 2018E: 5.10
Net Income (Non-GAAP):
- 2014A: 75,555
- 2015A: 100,150
- 2016E: 121,181
- 2017E: 151,476
- 2018E: 187,831
Basic EPS (Non-GAAP):
- 2014A: 3.09
- 2015A: 3.91
- 2016E: 4.42
- 2017E: 5.53
- 2018E: 6.86
Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP):
- 2014A: 2.89
- 2015A: 3.68
- 2016E: 4.26
- 2017E: 5.33
- 2018E: 6.61
Basic Weighted Average Shares:
- 2014A: 24,427
- 2015A: 25,599
- 2016E: 27,391
- 2017E: 27,391
- 2018E: 27,391
Diluted Weighted Average Shares:
- 2014A: 25,685
- 2015A: 26,567
- 2016E: 28,427
- 2017E: 28,427
- 2018E: 28,427

Valuation and Performance

DCF Analysis

12-month Target Price: US$144.0
Upside Potential: +26% from current price of US$114.0
Key Assumptions:
- Risk-free rate: 3.00%
- Equity risk premium: 10.00%
- Beta: 0.52
- Cost of equity (COE): 8.2%
- WACC: 8.2%
- Terminal growth rate: 3%

Sensitivity Analysis

Target Price (TP) under different WACC and terminal growth rate assumptions:
- WACC 7.7%, Terminal 2%: US$149.6
- WACC 7.7%, Terminal 3%: US$159.2
- WACC 7.7%, Terminal 4%: US$174.0
- WACC 8.2%, Terminal 2%: US$137.1
- WACC 8.2%, Terminal 3%: US$144.0
- WACC 8.2%, Terminal 4%: US$154.3
- WACC 8.7%, Terminal 2%: US$126.6
- WACC 8.7%, Terminal 3%: US$131.7
- WACC 8.7%, Terminal 4%: US$139.1

P/E and PEG Analysis

P/E Ratio (2016E): 34x
PEG Ratio (2016E): 1.3x
Comparables:
- A-share peers: Average P/E of 35.8x and PEG of 1.32x
- Hong Kong peers: Average P/E of 18.2x and PEG of 3.2x
- International peers: Average P/E of 25.1x and PEG of 2.49x

Share Performance and Market Correlation

CBPO vs. Nasdaq Biotech Index: Share performance was not correlated with the index over the past 12 months.
CBPO vs. Nasdaq Index: Share performance was not correlated with the Nasdaq index over the past 12 months.

Conclusion

CBPO is expected to maintain fast and stable revenue growth in RMB terms, driven by market expansion and new product lines. However, RMB depreciation may cause a temporary slowdown in US$ terms. The company's net margin is improving due to cost efficiencies and product mix optimization. The valuation suggests a 12-month target price of US$144.0, implying a 26% upside. The PEG analysis indicates that the company is undervalued compared to its peers, with a PEG ratio of 1.3x, below the average of 1.5x for A-share plasma names. The share performance has shown limited correlation with major indices, indicating potential for independent growth.

展开完整摘要