20160301-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_14页_1mb

报告摘要

CMS(HK) Research Highlights Summary

Core Content

The document outlines key research highlights from CMS(HK) on the financial and market performance of various sectors in China and the global market as of March 1, 2016. It includes analysis on the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut, company-specific performance, valuation metrics, and upcoming economic data releases.

Main Points

China Banks

RRR Cut: The PBOC cut the RRR by 50bps for all financial institutions, effective 1 March 2016.
Liquidity Impact: The move is expected to release around RMB689 billion into the financial system.
Sector Impact: The average FY16E NPAT for the sector is expected to rise by 0.15%, with a slightly larger impact on smaller banks (0.17%) than on large banks (0.13%).
Valuation: Trading at 0.55x FY16E P/B and 3.93x FY16E P/E, the sector is considered undervalued compared to historical averages (1.24x P/B, 7.15x P/E).
Rating: The sector is rated OVERWEIGHT, with BOC (3988 HK) as the top pick.

China Biologic Products (CBPO US)

Earnings: 4Q15 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenue of US$68.3mn (+18% YoY in USD terms).
RMB Depreciation Impact: Further RMB depreciation is expected to negatively affect earnings in USD terms.
TP Adjustment: The DCF-based target price is raised to US$144.0, suggesting a 24% upside potential.
Valuation: Currently trading at 27x 2016E P/E and 1.0x PEG.
Risks: Includes potential government policy changes, delays in opening new stations, higher COGS, and further RMB depreciation.

Anta Sports (2020 HK)

CFO Change: Mr. Ling Shing Ping resigned as CFO due to family reasons, effective 1 March 2016. Mr. Lam Jim was appointed as the new CFO.
Market Reaction: Anta may face short-term share price pressure, but fundamentals remain strong.
Rating: NEUTRAL, with a target price of HK$20.42.
Valuation: Trading at HK$17.58, with a 10% decline since the downgrade on 24 February 2016.

Key Information

Economic Data Watch

Japan: Unemployment rate (2016/03/01) is expected to remain at 3.30%.
China: NBS Non-Mfg PMI and NBS Manufacturing PMI are expected to be released.
Germany & Euro Zone: Unemployment rate and Markit Mfg Final PMI are to be announced.
US: Key economic indicators include Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Non-Farm Payrolls.

Company Events

Multiple companies announced financial results or dividends on 1 March 2016, including Great Eagle Holdings Ltd., China Wah Yan Healthcare Ltd., and others.

Research Coverage

Auto & Auto Parts

Brilliance China: BUY, TP HK$12.5, 97% upside.
China ZhengTong Auto: BUY, TP HK$3.5, 29% upside.
Geely Automobile: BUY, TP HK$4.6, 60% upside.
BAIC Motor: NEUTRAL, TP HK$8.0, 44% upside.
Great Wall Motor: BUY, TP HK$12.5, 124% upside.
Fuyao Glass: BUY, TP HK$20.0, 29% upside.

Oil and Gas

CNOOC: BUY, TP HK$10.8, 36% upside.
China Oilfield Services: NEUTRAL, TP HK$8.7, 52% upside.
Sinopec Oilfield Service: NEUTRAL, TP HK$2.7, 63% upside.

Property

China Resources Land: BUY, TP HK$23.8, 28% upside.
Vanke Property (Overseas): FIN RES/DIV.
Country Garden: NEUTRAL, TP HK$2.7, -5% upside.
Greentown China: BUY, TP HK$7.3, 17% upside.

Technology, Media & Telecom

Tencent: BUY, TP HK$174.0, 23% upside.
NetDragon: BUY, TP HK$41.3, 116% upside.
58.com: BUY, TP US$93.0, 75% upside.

Textile & Garment

ANTA Sports Products: BUY, TP HK$24.44, 39% upside.
361 Degrees: BUY, TP HK$3.61, 64% upside.

Food & Beverage

China Mengniu Dairy: NEUTRAL, TP HK$14.5, 30% upside.
Xinjiang Goldwind: NEUTRAL, TP HK$11.0, 32% upside.

Retail

Intime Retail Group: BUY, TP HK$10.2, 68% upside.
Gome Electrical: BUY, TP HK$1.63, 58% upside.
JD: BUY, TP US$47.3, 84% upside.

Alternative Energy

GCL-Poly Energy: BUY, TP HK$1.94, 72% upside.
Xinyi Solar: BUY, TP HK$4.3, 97% upside.

Summary of Valuation and Performance

The document highlights the positive impact of the RRR cut on liquidity and the banking sector.
CBPO US and Anta Sports are noted for their recent performance and potential for growth.
The overall market sentiment and valuation metrics are analyzed across multiple sectors, with several companies rated as BUY and others as NEUTRAL or SELL.
The research emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and company-specific developments for investment decisions.

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