2018全球电动车展望（英文版）_139页_5mb

Summary of Global EV Outlook 2018

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the current state and future prospects of electric vehicles (EVs) globally, focusing on their deployment, infrastructure, battery technologies, energy demand, and policy implications.

Main Points

1. Electric Vehicle Sales

• In 2017, global new electric car sales exceeded 1 million units, representing a 54% increase compared to 2016.
• Norway had the highest market share of electric cars at 39%, while Iceland and Sweden had 11.7% and 6.3%, respectively.
• China was the largest market for electric cars, accounting for over 50% of global sales, with a market share of 2.2% in 2017.
• Electric two-wheelers and electric buses are also experiencing significant growth, with 30 million and 100,000 units sold in 2017, respectively.
• China dominates the market for both electric buses and two-wheelers, with over 99% of the global stock in these categories.

2. Vehicle Stock

• By 2017, the global stock of electric cars surpassed 3 million, with a 56% increase from 2016.
• China had the largest stock, with 40% of the global total.
• Electric buses reached 370,000 units in 2017, and electric two-wheelers reached 250 million units.
• The majority of these vehicles are concentrated in China, India, and Europe.

3. Charging Infrastructure

• Private chargers at homes and workplaces are the most widely used, with almost 3 million units installed globally in 2017.
• Publicly accessible chargers are also growing, with 320,000 slow chargers and 110,000 fast chargers in 2017.
• Fast chargers are especially important in urban areas and for long-distance travel.
• In Norway, the ratio of public chargers to electric cars is 1:19, indicating a need for more infrastructure in other regions.

4. Policy Support

• EV deployment has been largely driven by policy initiatives, particularly in China and Norway.
• China and California have the strongest electric car mandates, while the EU has proposed stricter CO₂ emissions standards for 2030.
• India, Mexico, and other countries are also increasing their policy ambitions.
• Public procurement and tax incentives are important tools to support EV adoption.
• Charging infrastructure and grid integration are key areas for future policy development.

5. Battery Developments

• Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are the dominant technology for EVs, with significant progress in cost reduction and performance improvement.
• Key cost and performance drivers include battery chemistry, manufacturing scale, and charging speed.
• Battery cost reductions are expected to improve the total cost of ownership (TCO) for EVs, especially in fleets such as buses and taxis.
• Post-Li-ion technologies are emerging but have low technology readiness at present.

6. Outlook to 2030

• Under the New Policies Scenario, 125 million electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are expected by 2030.
• In the EV30@30 Scenario, this number could reach 220 million, with 130 million being battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and 90 million plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).
• Electric two-wheelers are projected to reach 39% of the global stock by 2030.
• Fast chargers will be the primary infrastructure for buses, enabling two buses per night to be recharged.
• Battery demand is expected to rise significantly, with cobalt and lithium being the most affected materials.

7. Materials Demand

• The shift to EVs will increase the demand for cobalt and lithium, with EV30@30 Scenario projecting 25 times more demand for both by 2030.
• Cobalt supply is a concern due to its concentration in a few countries and the potential for price volatility.
• Regulatory frameworks should support stable and sustainable supply chains and recycling processes to manage material demand and reduce environmental impact.

8. Policy Considerations

• A diverse set of policies is needed to support a timely and sustainable transition to electric mobility.
• Technology-neutral regulations on tailpipe CO₂ emissions and zero- or low-emission vehicle mandates are recommended.
• Charging infrastructure and grid integration policies are crucial for enabling viable business models and smooth integration of EVs into the power system.
• Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and vehicle activity-based taxation (e.g., distance-based pricing) are seen as promising approaches to support future mobility needs and fund infrastructure.

Key Information

• EV30@30 Scenario is a high ambition scenario where 228 million EVs (excluding two- and three-wheelers) are expected by 2030.
• China leads in EV deployment and electrification of transport modes, particularly two-wheelers and buses.
• Battery cost reductions are a major driver for EV adoption, especially in fleets and urban environments.
• Public procurement and fiscal incentives play a critical role in early EV adoption.
• Fast chargers are essential for long-distance travel and urban mobility.
• Regulatory support is vital for ensuring material supply stability, battery recycling, and grid integration.
• EVs contribute to energy efficiency, reduced emissions, and improved air quality.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 highlights the rapid growth of electric vehicles and their potential to transform the transportation sector. With policy support, cost reductions, and technological advancements, EVs are expected to play a central role in future mobility. The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies and strategic infrastructure development to ensure a smooth and sustainable transition to electric mobility.