2018全球电动汽车展望（英文）-2030年规模破万亿-2018.06-141页_8mb

Global EV Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2018 is a comprehensive report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that explores the current state and future prospects of electric vehicle (EV) adoption globally. It highlights the rapid growth of the EV market, the development of charging infrastructure, the role of batteries, and the policy frameworks necessary to support the transition to electric mobility.

Main Areas of Focus

1. Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• Sales Growth: In 2017, global new electric car sales exceeded 1 million units, representing a 54% increase compared to 2016.
• Market Leaders: Norway had the highest electric car market share at 39%, followed by Iceland (11.7%) and Sweden (6.3%).
• China's Dominance: China was the largest market for electric cars, accounting for 40% of the global stock in 2017, and also led in electric bus and two-wheeler sales.
• Global Stock: The global stock of electric cars crossed 3 million in 2017, with a 56% increase from 2016. Electric buses reached 370,000 units and electric two-wheelers reached 250 million units.
• Future Projections: Under the New Policies Scenario, the number of electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is expected to reach 125 million by 2030. The EV30@30 Scenario forecasts 220 million LDVs, with 228 million EVs in total by 2030.

2. Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE)

• Charging Infrastructure: In 2017, there were 3 million private chargers globally, with 366,000 for fleets (mostly buses), primarily in China.
• Public Charging Outlets: Over 320,000 slow chargers and 110,000 fast chargers were available in 2017. Fast chargers are critical for enabling long-distance travel and are especially important in densely populated urban areas.
• Charging Ratios: The ratio of publicly accessible chargers to electric cars is expected to decrease in the coming years, with some regions like Norway already achieving a ratio of 1 charger per 19 cars.

3. Energy Demand and Emissions

• Energy Impact: EVs are expected to significantly influence energy demand and reduce CO₂ emissions. In 2017, EVs helped avoid 26 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions globally.
• Grid Implications: The increasing number of EVs will have implications for the electricity grid, particularly in terms of peak load management and renewable integration.
• Well-to-Wheel Emissions: The report emphasizes the importance of clean electricity generation to ensure that EVs contribute to lower greenhouse gas emissions.

4. Battery Technology and Cost

• Battery Development: Advances in battery technology, particularly lithium-ion (Li-ion), have driven cost reductions and performance improvements, enabling broader EV adoption.
• Cost Drivers: Key factors influencing battery costs include chemistry, size, manufacturing scale, and charging speed.
• Cost of Ownership: The total cost of ownership for EVs is expected to decrease significantly, especially for fleets like buses and taxis, due to battery cost reductions.

5. Policy Considerations

• Policy Push: EV deployment has been largely driven by policy support, especially in China and Norway. The European Union, California, and India are also setting ambitious targets.
• Charging Infrastructure: Policies are supporting both private and public charging infrastructure. The EV30@30 campaign aims to achieve 30 million EVs on the road by 2030.
• Supporting Measures: Fiscal incentives, preferential parking, road toll rebates, and low emission zones are pivotal in promoting EV adoption. Public procurement of EVs is also an effective way to demonstrate technology and drive economies of scale.
• Material Demand: The shift to EVs will increase demand for lithium and cobalt, with EV30@30 Scenario projecting 25 times higher demand for these materials than in 2017.

Key Views and Insights

• EV Growth: EVs are expected to grow significantly by 2030 due to supportive policies and declining costs.
• Cross-Modal Electrification: The electrification of buses, two-wheelers, and freight vehicles is also gaining momentum, especially in China and Europe.
• Battery Innovation: Li-ion batteries remain the dominant technology, but post-Li-ion technologies are emerging with potential for further cost and performance improvements.
• Policy Adaptability: Policies must be flexible and context-specific to support the transition to EVs, especially as markets move toward mass adoption.
• Sustainability: The report emphasizes the need for traceability in the battery supply chain and recycling processes to ensure environmental sustainability and cost efficiency.

Key Figures and Data

• Global EV Sales (2017): Over 1 million units.
• Global EV Stock (2017): Over 3 million units.
• China's EV Stock (2017): 40% of the global total.
• EV30@30 Scenario (2030): 228 million EVs, with 130 million BEVs and 90 million PHEVs.
• Charging Infrastructure: 3 million private chargers and 320,000 slow chargers globally in 2017.
• Cobalt Demand (2030): Up to 25 times higher than in 2017 under the EV30@30 Scenario.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 underscores the transformative potential of electric vehicles in reducing emissions and improving energy efficiency. It highlights the importance of policy support, battery innovation, and charging infrastructure development in enabling a sustainable and widespread transition to electric mobility. The report serves as a critical guide for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers in understanding the trajectory and implications of the global EV market.