2018全球电动车展望（英文版）-6mb

Summary of Global EV Outlook 2018

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, focusing on the growth of EV sales, vehicle stock, charging infrastructure, battery development, and the policy environment that supports the transition to electric mobility.

Main Areas of Focus

1. Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• New EV Sales: In 2017, global new electric car sales surpassed 1 million units, marking a 54% increase from 2016. Norway led with 39% of new car sales being electric, followed by Iceland (11.7%) and Sweden (6.3%).
• Market Share: China had the largest electric car stock, accounting for 40% of the global total in 2017, with over 1 million units added in 2017 alone.
• Other Transport Modes: Electrification is also growing rapidly in buses and two-wheelers. In 2017, China accounted for over 99% of both electric bus and two-wheeler stocks. Electric bus sales reached 100,000 units and two-wheeler sales reached 30 million units globally.
• EV Deployment Targets: Many countries and cities have set ambitious targets for EV deployment. These include China, the European Union, and the United States.

2. Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE)

• Charging Infrastructure: In 2017, private chargers at residences and workplaces numbered nearly 3 million, with China having the majority of private and public chargers.
• Public Charging Outlets: There were approximately 320,000 slow chargers and 110,000 fast chargers globally in 2017. Fast chargers are especially important for enabling long-distance travel and are being prioritized in urban areas.
• Policy Support: Governments are promoting the development of both private and public charging infrastructure. Public funding may decrease in favor of self-sustaining, business-driven models. A key policy signal is the EU's AFI Directive, recommending one charger per ten electric cars.

3. Energy Demand and Emissions

• Energy Impact: EVs are increasing energy demand, especially in countries with high EV penetration. In 2017, global electricity demand from EVs was significant, with projections for further growth by 2030.
• CO₂ Emissions: EVs help reduce CO₂ emissions, with estimates showing that EVs globally avoided 15 million tons of CO₂ emissions in 2017. However, the overall impact on emissions depends on the energy mix used to charge EVs.
• Local Pollutants: EVs contribute to reducing local air pollutants, which is a key environmental benefit.

4. Battery Developments and Cost Reductions

• Battery Technology: Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are the dominant technology for EVs. Their development has been influenced by consumer electronics, leading to significant cost reductions and performance improvements.
• Cost Drivers: Key factors affecting battery cost include chemistry, energy storage capacity, manufacturing scale, and charging speed.
• Future Prospects: Post-Li-ion technologies are emerging, but they are not yet ready for mass production. Li-ion batteries are expected to remain the preferred choice for the next decade.
• Cost of Ownership: Battery cost reductions significantly improve the cost competitiveness of EVs, especially for fleets with high usage patterns like buses and taxis.

5. Outlook to 2030

• Vehicle Uptake: In the New Policies Scenario, the global stock of electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is projected to reach 125 million by 2030. In the EV30@30 Scenario, this number could rise to 220 million.
• Two-Wheelers: In the New Policies Scenario, 39% of global two-wheelers will be electric by 2030, driven mainly by China and India.
• Buses: Urban buses are transitioning to electric drivetrains, with China and Europe leading the shift.
• Charging Infrastructure: Private chargers are expected to outnumber electric LDVs by 10% in 2030. Public charging infrastructure will grow, but the ratio of chargers to vehicles may be lower than the EU's recommended 1:10.

Key Policy Considerations

• Public Procurement: Schemes for public procurement (e.g., buses and municipal vehicles) help demonstrate EV technology and enable economies of scale.
• CO₂ Taxes: Taxes reflecting CO₂ content are essential to support EV adoption and ensure a conducive policy environment.
• Charging Infrastructure: Policies should support the development of charging infrastructure, especially for public use. This includes allowing non-utility stakeholders to enter the charging services market.
• Grid Integration: EVs can be integrated into the power grid in a way that benefits from variable renewable energy supplies. This requires flexible and supportive regulatory frameworks.
• Material Demand: The rise of EVs increases demand for materials like cobalt and lithium. In the New Policies Scenario, cobalt demand for EVs is expected to be ten times higher than current levels by 2030. In the EV30@30 Scenario, it could be over 25 times higher.
• Recycling and Sustainability: Policies should address the end-of-life management of EV batteries, promoting recycling and maximizing residual value.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 highlights the rapid growth of the EV market, driven by supportive policies and cost reductions. It emphasizes the importance of a diversified and sustainable energy supply, the role of battery technology in shaping future EV development, and the need for coordinated policies to ensure a smooth transition to electric mobility. The report also outlines the challenges and opportunities associated with material demand, charging infrastructure, and grid integration.