2018全球电动汽车展望（英文版）-6mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Global EV Outlook 2018

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2018 provides an overview of the global electric vehicle (EV) market, policy developments, and the implications of electrification on energy demand, emissions, and material use. It outlines the progress made in EV adoption, the role of policy in driving growth, and the future outlook for EVs up to 2030.

Main Areas of Focus

The report highlights four main areas of focus for the IEA:

Energy Security: Promoting diversity, efficiency, flexibility, and reliability across all fuels and energy sources.
Economic Development: Supporting free markets and eliminating energy poverty.
Environmental Awareness: Analyzing policy options to mitigate environmental impacts, especially climate change and air pollution.
Engagement Worldwide: Collaborating with association and partner countries, particularly major emerging economies, to address shared energy and environmental concerns.

Key Policy and Market Developments

Electric Vehicles (EVs)

In 2017, global new electric car sales exceeded 1 million units, marking a 54% increase compared to 2016.
Norway had the highest electric car market share at 39%, followed by Iceland (11.7%) and Sweden (6.3%).
China accounted for more than half of global electric car sales and 40% of the global electric car stock, with the second-largest market being the United States.
In 2017, electric buses reached 370,000 units and electric two-wheelers reached 250 million, with China dominating both markets.
EV30@30 is a campaign aiming for 30 million electric vehicles by 2030, driven by policy support and market growth.

EV Deployment Targets

Several countries and cities have announced EV deployment targets for the period 2020–2030.
ICE vehicle bans and access restrictions are being implemented in some regions, especially in China and California.
The European Union has proposed CO₂ emission standards for 2030, further encouraging EV adoption.

EV Supply Equipment (EVSE)

Charging infrastructure has grown in parallel with EV adoption.
In 2017, private chargers numbered around 3 million, and publicly accessible chargers reached 320,000 slow chargers and 110,000 fast chargers.
Fast chargers are becoming more important, especially in urban areas and for long-distance travel.
The EU AFI Directive recommends a 1:10 ratio of public chargers to electric cars, but in Norway, the ratio is 1:19.

Battery Technology and Cost Trends

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are the dominant technology in EVs, with cost reductions and performance improvements enabling broader adoption.
Battery chemistry, manufacturing scale, size, and charging speed are key drivers of cost and performance.
The total cost of ownership for EVs is expected to decrease significantly with further battery cost reductions.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are most cost-competitive in fleet applications, such as buses, taxis, and ride-hailing services.

Outlook to 2030

Vehicle Uptake

Under the New Policies Scenario, 125 million electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs) are expected by 2030.
Under the EV30@30 Scenario, this number could reach 220 million, with 130 million BEVs and 90 million PHEVs.
Electric two-wheelers are projected to account for 39% of global two-wheeler stock by 2030, primarily due to China's leadership and India's ambitions.

Charging Infrastructure

Private chargers are expected to outnumber electric LDVs by 10%.
Publicly accessible chargers will be critical, especially for urban mobility and long-distance travel.
Fast chargers are expected to be the main type for bus electrification, allowing two buses to be recharged per night.

Material Demand

The shift to EVs will increase demand for cobalt and lithium, with EV30@30 Scenario predicting 25 times more demand than current levels by 2030.
Cobalt is particularly concerning due to concentration in a few countries and limited supply.
Regulators are encouraged to ensure stable supply chains, reduce uncertainties, and support recycling to minimize environmental impact.

Policy Considerations

Public procurement is a key tool for early EV adoption, allowing demonstration and economies of scale.
CO₂-based taxation and road pricing can help align economic incentives with environmental goals.
Fiscal incentives at the point of purchase and complementary measures (e.g. preferential parking, low emission zones) are important for consumer and business adoption.
Regulatory frameworks should cover battery supply chains, end-of-life processes, and grid integration.
Collaboration between governments, energy companies, and automakers is essential for sustainable and scalable EV growth.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 highlights the rapid growth of the EV market, the critical role of policy, and the increasing importance of charging infrastructure and battery technology. It underscores the need for sustainable material supply, effective policy support, and collaboration to ensure a smooth transition to electric mobility. The EV30@30 Scenario presents a more ambitious vision, with 220 million LDVs expected by 2030, emphasizing the potential for future growth and environmental benefits.