2018全球电动汽车展望（英文版）_139页_5mb

Global EV Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the growth and development of electric vehicles (EVs) globally, focusing on market trends, policy support, charging infrastructure, battery technology, and material demand. It outlines the potential for EVs to play a key role in future transportation systems and highlights the need for coordinated and supportive policies to ensure a smooth transition to electric mobility.

Main Views

• EV Sales Growth: In 2017, new electric car sales globally exceeded 1 million units, marking a 54% increase compared to 2016. Norway had the highest electric car market share at 39%, followed by Iceland (11.7%) and Sweden (6.3%). China accounted for over 50% of global electric car sales, with a market share of 2.2%.
• Vehicle Stock Expansion: The global stock of electric cars surpassed 3 million in 2017, with China holding 40% of the total. Electric buses and two-wheelers also saw rapid growth, with China accounting for over 99% of the global stock for both.
• Charging Infrastructure: Charging infrastructure has grown in parallel with EV adoption. Private chargers are the most widely used, with over 3 million installed globally. Publicly accessible chargers, predominantly slow chargers, numbered nearly 320,000 in 2017, while fast chargers exceeded 110,000. China dominates the publicly accessible charger market, with over 366,000 units installed for fleet use.
• Policy Influence: Policy has been a major driver of EV deployment, especially in China and Norway. The European Union introduced a 2030 CO₂ emissions standard, and several countries and cities have announced electrification targets.
• Battery Development: Battery cost reductions and performance improvements are key to EV affordability and adoption. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are expected to remain the dominant technology, though post-Li-ion alternatives are emerging.
• Material Demand: The shift to EVs increases demand for critical materials such as lithium and cobalt. By 2030, under the New Policies Scenario, cobalt demand for EVs could be 10 times higher than current levels, and over 25 times higher under the EV30@30 Scenario.
• Future Outlook: In the New Policies Scenario, EV stock is expected to reach 125 million by 2030. In the more ambitious EV30@30 Scenario, this number could rise to 220 million, with a significant portion being battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).
• Charging Infrastructure Projections: Private chargers are expected to outnumber electric LDVs by 10% by 2030. Publicly accessible chargers will need to increase in density to support growing EV adoption, with some countries already achieving lower ratios than the EU's suggested 1:10.
• Policy Recommendations: A variety of policies, including public procurement, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks, are essential to support EV adoption. Additionally, the integration of EVs into the power grid and the management of material supply chains are critical areas for policy development.

Key Information

• Charging Infrastructure:
  • Private chargers are the most common, with 3 million globally in 2017.
  • Publicly accessible chargers include over 320,000 slow chargers and 110,000 fast chargers.
  • Fast chargers are especially important in urban areas and for long-distance travel.
• Battery Technology:
  • Lithium-ion batteries are the current standard, with ongoing research to reduce costs and improve performance.
  • Battery cost reductions are vital for improving the total cost of ownership for EVs.
  • The total cost of ownership for BEVs is most competitive in high-use fleets like buses and taxis.
• Material Demand:
  • Cobalt and lithium demand are expected to rise significantly by 2030.
  • Cobalt demand could be 10 times higher in the New Policies Scenario and over 25 times in the EV30@30 Scenario.
  • The concentration of cobalt supply poses a risk to stable and affordable EV development.
• Policy Support:
  • Policies such as CO₂ emission standards, tax incentives, and public procurement are crucial for EV growth.
  • Charging infrastructure development should be supported by both public and private sectors.
  • Regulatory frameworks must address both the supply chain and the end-of-life management of EV batteries.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 outlines a promising trajectory for the global adoption of electric vehicles, driven by supportive policies, technological advancements, and growing market confidence. It highlights the need for continued investment in charging infrastructure, battery innovation, and material supply chain stability. The report also emphasizes the importance of adaptive and comprehensive policies to ensure a sustainable and efficient transition to electric mobility.