2006年-世界发展银行全球_Reducing_Distortions_to_Agricultural_Incentives__Progress_Pitfalls_and_Prospects_35页_302kb

Summary of "Reducing Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Progress, Pitfalls and Prospects" by Kym Anderson

Core Content

This paper by Kym Anderson analyzes the evolution of agricultural and trade policies in developing and high-income countries, focusing on how these policies distort agricultural incentives and affect economic growth and welfare. It evaluates the progress made in reducing distortions since the 1980s, assesses whether current policies still harm farmers in low-income countries, and explores the prospects for further reform in the coming decade.

Main Points

1. Agricultural Incentive Distortions

• Poor countries often have pro-urban bias in policies, which disadvantage farmers by underinvesting in agricultural infrastructure and human capital.
• Rich countries tend to subsidize agriculture and impose import barriers, which harm developing countries' agricultural exports.
• These distortions reduce national and global economic growth and exacerbate inequality and poverty in developing countries.

2. Progress in Reform

• Over the past two decades, many developing countries have reduced trade and sectoral distortions, including:
  • Lower import tariffs in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.
  • Reduction in exchange rate overvaluation, as evidenced by the decline in black market premia for foreign currency.
  • Decrease in direct export taxation, although some still exists through parastatal marketing enterprises.
• OECD countries have reduced their average agricultural producer support estimates (PSE), but the total support remains high in absolute terms.

3. Ongoing Policy Distortions

• Despite reforms, agricultural distortions remain significant, especially in developing countries.
• The GTAP model indicates that real net farm income would increase significantly in developing countries with full liberalization.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, the positive impact of liberalization is offset by the negative effects of higher import prices, but the overall welfare effect is still positive.

4. Prospects for Reform

• The Doha Development Agenda has stalled, with limited progress in reaching a consensus among WTO members.
• The binding overhang in current tariffs and subsidies means that substantial cuts are necessary to achieve real liberalization.
• Special and differential treatment for developing countries is crucial, allowing for longer phase-in periods and lesser cuts.
• The outlawing of export subsidies would benefit agricultural exporters but could harm food-importing countries.

5. Role of WTO and New Members

• The WTO accession process has led to significant reductions in agricultural protection, especially in China.
• If other large acceding countries (e.g., Russia, Vietnam) follow China's example, it could be a major achievement in global trade reform.

6. Political Economy of Reform

• The political economy of trade policy is not supportive of unilateral reform, but the current globalization is reducing the costs of opening markets.
• The agricultural biotechnology revolution is creating new opportunities and challenges, with early adopters gaining significant advantages.
• Concentration of firms in the food value chain is increasing the lobbying power for open markets, which benefits countries that reduce trade barriers early.

Key Information

• Agricultural protection in high-income countries has negative welfare effects on many developing countries.
• Global liberalization of merchandise trade could significantly increase value added in agriculture in developing regions.
• Sub-Saharan Africa would see a 7% increase in net farm income and an 80% rise in agricultural and food exports under full liberalization.
• Empirical models like GTAP and Linkage are essential for assessing the impact of trade policies and reform alternatives.
• Informal and illegal taxes on farmers still exist in many developing countries, and subsidy data is often incomplete.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while progress has been made in reducing agricultural distortions, much work remains. Improving empirical research and economic modeling can help policy makers make more informed decisions and encourage further reform. The economics profession has a key role to play in this process by providing better data and analysis on the causes and effects of agricultural and trade policies.