20240707-广发期货-铝产业链周报_氧化铝_几内亚雨季_主力关注3700支撑_电解铝_冶炼利润高位_主力关注20000支撑_30页_3mb

2024/7/7 铝产业链周报

氧化铝分析

• 供应与需求：国内铝土矿复产缓慢，进口依赖度较低。几内亚进入雨季，5月进口铝土矿环比下滑49%，引发市场担忧，部分厂检修。国内氧化铝产量环比增加，库存下滑。
• 价格展望：主力区间3700-3900宽幅震荡，3700为关键支撑。

电解铝分析

• 产能与利润：云南地区电力供应稳定，电解铝复产顺利，国内冶炼利润丰厚，主力关注20000支撑位。
• 政策与需求：中国PMI连续下滑至荣枯线以下，汽车终端需求回暖，新能源汽车增长显著。房地产市场疲软，竣工面积转负。

宏观与政策

• 美国经济：5月CPI超预期，非农就业新增超预期，但剔除能源的核心CPI温和，就业市场降温推动降息预期升温。
• 中国数据：6月PMI环比回升，但未超荣枯线，各地刺激汽车消费政策支持终端需求。

持仓与策略

• 短期氧化铝呈现偏多震荡，电解铝维持逢低做多策略，防控利润回吐风险。
• 铝均线看压力趋强，策略上建议逢高布局空单，小止损。

Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report (July 7, 2024)

Alumina Analysis

• Supply and Demand: Domestic bauxite production is slow, import dependency is low. Guinea entering the rainy season led a 49% month-on-month drop in May alumina imports, causing market concerns. Some plants are under maintenance. Domestic alumina output is rising, with inventory falling.
• Price Outlook: Spot alumina is in a wide range of 3700-3900, with 3700 as key support.

Primary Aluminum Analysis

• Capacity and Profit: Stable electricity supply supports smooth resumption in Yunnan. Current energy generation profit is high; Yunnan is operating at full capacity with strong domestic support. The key support level is 20000.
• Policy and Demand: PMI indicates continuous decline but regional policies on auto consumption boost OEM and NEV demand. Weakening real estate data adds headwinds.

Macro and Policy

• US Economy: May CPI beat expectations, but core data tempered market optimism; High unemployment (41%) and slower non-farm payrolls signal potential rate cuts.
• China Data: PMI improved but stayed below 50; Regional stimulus measures, particularly for auto and NEV demand, are expected to support aluminum consumption.

Positioning and Strategy

• Oxide faces a bullish backdrop with 3700-3900 wide range. Primary aluminum holds a low-side limit in 20000. Aluminum is under pressure with 21500-22000 resistance; Short positions recommended with fast stops on breakouts.