2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Liberia_2011_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Three_74页_985kb

Liberia: Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the sixth review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Liberia, including a request for extension of the arrangement and augmentation of access. It is accompanied by a staff report, staff supplement, press release, and executive director statement. The main focus is on the economic performance, fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms, and debt sustainability of Liberia during the period leading up to the review.

Key Information

• Review Period: The sixth review took place in March 28–April 8, 2011, with discussions concluding on June 8, 2011.
• Request for Extension: The Liberian authorities requested an extension of the ECF to March 31, 2012 and an augmentation of access equivalent to 6.8% of quota (SDR 8.88 million).
• Total Access: The augmentation would bring total access to 32.5% of quota.
• Program Performance: All performance criteria through December 2010 were met. However, three structural benchmarks were delayed, though other reforms continued.
• Budgetary Situation: The FY2012 budget is fully financed and aligned with the post-HIPC debt strategy, with a focus on prudent fiscal policies and priority spending.

Main Points

Macroeconomic Outlook

• Economic recovery is gaining traction, with real GDP growth expected to reach 6% in 2011 due to the start of iron ore production.
• Inflation is expected to remain in the single digits despite rising food and fuel import prices.
• Exchange rate stability is maintained, with government deposits at the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) contributing to three-month import coverage at the end of 2010.
• Medium-term prospects are positive, driven by foreign investment, non-mining GDP growth, and rebound in rubber prices.

Fiscal Policies

• Fiscal position strengthened in the first three quarters of FY2011 due to buoyant revenues and delays in budgetary grants.
• Tax revenue increased due to a petroleum sector payment, postponement of income tax cuts, and higher customs revenues.
• Fiscal surplus reached 2.5% of GDP at the end of March 2011.
• Budget contingency expenditures were used to reallocate funds to urgent priorities (3.5% of GDP).
• FY2012 budget includes contingent revenues and grants of US$88 million (7% of GDP) and matching contingent expenditures.
• Core and contingent spending remain focused on the four pillars of the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS).

Monetary and Financial Policy

• Monetary policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability and protect foreign reserves.
• Foreign exchange reserves are expected to increase by US$10 million in 2011, with Fund purchases.
• Dollarization and excess liquidity limit the effectiveness of monetary policy.
• CBL introduced a credit stimulus initiative to support SMEs, with below-market terms.
• Non-performing loans (NPLs) increased, prompting enhanced credit monitoring and risk-based supervision.
• Financial sector reforms are ongoing, including improving the legal framework, introducing a commercial code, and establishing a new commercial court.

Structural Reforms and Poverty Reduction Strategy

• Structural reforms are being consolidated, including financial reporting by state enterprises, launching the Financial Management IT System, and creating a mining tax assessment team.
• Customs data system is being extended to the international airport.
• Tax administration IT system is being introduced in phases, starting in the Large Taxpayer Unit (LTU).
• Audit capacity is being strengthened with consolidated government accounts audits and internal audit governance.
• Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is being implemented to improve revenue transparency.

Debt and External Policies

• Debt rescheduling with Paris Club creditors is nearly complete, with only one creditor remaining.
• Kuwait has signed an agreement in line with HIPC Initiative terms.
• External debt sustainability remains low risk, but sensitive to export levels and borrowing terms.
• Concessional borrowing is expected to resume in FY2012 with four World Bank projects approved and two under negotiation.
• State guarantees are being issued to support state enterprises.

Program Modalities and Monitoring

• Program extension is supported by the IMF staff, as balance of payments needs persist.
• New indicative floor for education and health spending is introduced in FY2012.
• Performance criteria for June 30, 2011, and December 31, 2011 are established.
• Next reviews are scheduled for September 15, 2011, and March 15, 2012.

Staff Appraisal

• The staff welcomes the progress made in the implementation of the program.
• Economic growth continues, supported by foreign direct investment.
• Fiscal control remains firm, and budgetary flexibility is maintained.
• The CBL is developing liquidity management tools and expanding credit access to the private sector.
• Staff highlights the need to address capacity bottlenecks in public investment and improve the credit environment.
• External risks, such as rising fuel and food prices, could impact consumption growth.

Key Documents Included

• Staff Report: Summarizes the sixth review and program performance.
• Staff Supplement: Focuses on debt sustainability analysis (DSA).
• Press Release: Outlines Executive Board discussion and approval.
• Executive Director Statement: Provides official perspective on the review.
• Appendices:
  • Appendix I: Includes Letter of Intent, Supplementary Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU).
  • Appendix II: Details tax policy changes and financial stability issues.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the extension of the ECF and augmentation of access, recognizing the positive economic developments and ongoing reforms. The Liberian authorities are on track to consolidate reforms and align with a new PRS. While capacity constraints remain a challenge, the staff believes that with continued efforts and international support, improved performance in FY2012 is feasible.