2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_Tajikistan_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Three_51页_924kb

Summary of the Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility for the Republic of Tajikistan

Core Content

The Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for the Republic of Tajikistan, conducted by the IMF in February 2012, assessed the country's economic developments, program performance, and policy discussions. The review confirmed that Tajikistan met its quantitative performance criteria and outlined a path for continued structural reforms and fiscal discipline.

Key Economic Developments

• Growth and Inflation: Economic growth in 2011 exceeded expectations at 7.4% real GDP growth, driven by agriculture, construction, and services. Headline inflation dropped to single digits (9.3%) at year-end, largely due to falling international food prices.
• Exchange Rate Regime: The de facto exchange rate regime was classified as crawl-like since March 2011. The somoni remained stable against the US dollar since September 2011, and the NBT increased its foreign exchange reserves more rapidly than expected.
• Fiscal Performance: Tajikistan recorded a fiscal surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2011, better than the projected deficit of 0.6%. Tax revenues in January 2012 also exceeded expectations.
• Monetary Policy: The NBT tightened monetary policy in late 2011 but eased it in early 2012 as inflation declined. The refinancing rate was lowered to 9.0% in February 2012, and reserve money growth was kept in line with inflation targets.
• Financial Sector: The financial sector remains vulnerable, with low profitability, high non-performing loans (NPLs), and dependence on NBT liquidity support. One large bank reclassified loans to "other assets" to improve its capital adequacy ratio (CAR), but this reclassification was later reversed.

Main Views and Recommendations

A. Program Review

• Tajikistan met all quantitative targets for end-December 2011.
• The government budget surplus was 0.5% of GDP, against a targeted deficit of 0.6%.
• No new arrears were accumulated, and external debt was contracted on concessional terms.
• The NBT exceeded its target for net international reserves (NIR) accumulation in 2011.

B. Policies for 2012 and Beyond

• Fiscal Policy: The government aims to maintain a conservative fiscal stance, targeting a deficit of 0.5% of GDP. Efforts will be made to save excess revenue and minimize the drawdown of the fiscal buffer.
• Monetary Policy: Price stability remains the primary objective, with the NBT aiming to reduce inflation while maintaining flexibility in exchange rates.
• Structural Reforms: Continued reform of the tax code and tax administration is needed, along with improvements in public financial management and financial sector governance.
• Debt Management: A conservative approach is recommended due to high debt risk ratings. The authorities are considering revising the public debt limit from nominal to net present value (NPV) terms.

C. Follow-On Program

• A successor program to the current ECF is being discussed, with the authorities seeking a new three-year poverty reduction strategy (2012–15).
• The review mission emphasized the need for further reforms in the financial sector, including a more active supervisory function and improved corporate governance.
• The World Bank is supporting a multi-year technical assistance program to strengthen the financial sector and enhance the NBT's supervisory capacity.

Key Concerns

• Financial Sector Vulnerabilities: Directed and connected lending continues to be a major issue. One large bank's capital adequacy is likely below the required 15%, and there is a risk of insolvency.
• Tax Reform Challenges: The new tax code draft is a step forward but does not fully reflect key recommendations. The authorities requested additional time and support to minimize revenue loss during tax reform.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The fiscal buffer has declined from 30% of annual revenues in 2008 to about 11% by end-2011. Further fiscal consolidation is needed to ensure sustainability.
• Exchange Rate and Reserve Management: A depreciation of around 5% in the real effective exchange rate over the next three years is recommended to maintain external equilibrium. The NBT should stop issuing liquidity loans in foreign exchange to protect reserves.

Forward-Looking Risks

• Exchange Rate Volatility: Unwarranted fluctuations in the exchange rate could threaten macroeconomic stability.
• Debt Distress Risk: Tajikistan remains at high risk of debt distress, and the current debt limit may need to be reviewed.
• Natural Disasters: Potential risks from flooding and mudslides due to heavy snowfall could impact economic performance.
• External Shocks: High oil prices and regional trade disruptions continue to pose challenges.

Structural Reforms

• Financial Sector Stability: Implementation of the Financial Sector Stability Action Plan (FSSAP) has improved accounting and provisioning practices. However, further action is needed on capital adequacy and liquidity management.
• Tax Policy and Administration: An ambitious tax reform is necessary, but must be supported by improved tax administration to ensure effectiveness.
• Public Financial Management: Strengthening transparency and governance in public financial management is a key priority.
• Institutional Capacity: The NBT's capacity to monitor and supervise the financial sector is being enhanced through technical assistance.

Conclusion

The review highlights Tajikistan's progress in meeting macroeconomic targets and implementing structural reforms, but also underscores the need for continued fiscal discipline, financial sector improvements, and tax reform. The authorities are committed to maintaining a conservative fiscal stance, ensuring price stability, and strengthening the financial system to support sustainable growth and poverty reduction.