2024年全球航空公司安全与损失年度回顾_34页_2mb

2024 Annual Review of Airline Safety and Losses

Core Content

2024 was a year of notable airline losses, but not necessarily a year of declining safety. The year saw nine fatal accidents, which was higher than 2023's three, but still within the range of pre-Covid years and significantly lower than the 1990s and 2000s. The high number of fatalities (275) was largely due to one major incident, the Jeju Air crash on 29 December, which resulted in 179 deaths. This underscores how a single event can drastically affect annual statistics.

Main Points

• Safety Trends: Airline safety has improved considerably over the years, with the fatal accident rate now being three to five times safer than it was 10-15 years ago. The 2024 fatality rate of one per 5.12 million flights placed it as the second safest year since the start of commercial aviation.
• Comparison to Previous Years: While 2024 had a higher number of fatal accidents than 2023, it was more in line with the years immediately pre-Covid. The annual average for the last five years was 7.2, while the 2010-2019 average was 15.3.
• Passenger Fatality Trends: The number of fatalities in 2024 was the highest since 2018. However, the five-year moving average for passenger fatalities was 137.4, significantly lower than the 2010-2019 average of 303.5.
• Impact of the Jeju Air Crash: The Jeju Air crash accounted for the majority of the year's fatalities, which highlights the potential for a single event to skew annual safety statistics. If the crash had occurred later, 2024 would have been considered a “good” year.
• Insurance Market Impact: The 2024 all-risk insurance market faced significant losses, with the cost of claims exceeding written net premiums by at least $200 million. The global net written premium for 2024 was estimated at $1.62 billion, a 12% decrease from 2023.
• Regional Events: Several regional incidents contributed to the year's fatalities, including the VoePass ATR72 crash in Brazil and the KLM Cityhopper incident at Schiphol Airport, which involved a ramp worker being killed.

Key Information

• Fatal Accidents (2024):
  • 9 fatal accidents, with 4 resulting in passenger deaths.
  • 238 passengers and crew were killed in these four accidents.
• Fatalities by Year:
  • 2024: 275 fatalities
  • 2023: 88 fatalities
  • 2022: 199 fatalities
  • 2021: 130 fatalities
  • 2020: 133 fatalities
• Fatal Accident Rates:
  • 2024: 1 per 5.12 million flights
  • 2010-2019: 1 per 5.5 million flights
  • 2000-2009: 1 per 3.5 million flights
  • 1990s: 1 per 1.8 million flights
• Passenger Fatality Rates:
  • 2024: 1 per 21.4 million passengers
  • 2010-2019: 1 per 12.9 million passengers
  • 2000-2009: 1 per 3.5 million passengers
  • 1990s: 1 per 1.8 million passengers
• Insurance Claims:
  • Estimated cost of all-risk claims in 2024: $1.9 billion
  • Net written premium in 2024: $1.62 billion
  • Net written premium in 2023: $1.85 billion
  • Net written premium in 2022: $1.80 billion
  • Net written premium in 2021: $1.60 billion
  • Net written premium in 2020: $1.35 billion
• Regional Statistics:
  • Western-built Jets: 3 fatal accidents in 2024, with 198 fatalities.
    • Annual average for 2010-2019: 3.8
    • Annual average for 2000-2009: 7.7
    • Annual average for 1990s: 10.5
  • Russia/Ukraine: A significant concern due to the potential for aircraft detention and claims, though not included in the “fatal accident” count.

Conclusion

Despite the high number of fatalities in 2024, the overall safety of the airline industry continues to improve. The year serves as a reminder of the potential for a single catastrophic event to affect the annual statistics, but the long-term trend shows a marked decrease in both fatal accidents and passenger fatalities compared to previous decades.