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报告摘要

Deutsche Bank Research: The Equity View - FRESH MONEY IDEAS #3 Summary

Overview

This report presents the third edition of Deutsche Bank's quarterly publication, highlighting the strongest investment ideas across various sectors. The ideas are grouped by sector and include both buy and sell recommendations. The report emphasizes valuation, growth potential, and catalysts for each stock.

Core Content and Key Sectors

Consumer: Includes B&M, BAT, Bovis Homes, and Carrefour.
Financials: Includes Aroundtown Properties, AXA, Banco Santander, Credit Suisse Group, and Prudential.
Healthcare: Includes AstraZeneca, Fresenius, and Shire.
Energy, Materials & Industrials: Includes ABB, ArcelorMittal, BAE, Continental, DSM, Glencore, Kingspan, Linde, Renault, Royal Dutch Shell, and RWE.
TMT: Includes Eutelsat, Infineon, Informa, KPN, Sophos, and Vodafone.
Business Services, Leisure & Transport: Includes Deutsche Lufthansa, Royal Mail, SGS, and Vinci.

Main Points and Investment Ideas

Consumer Sector

B&M:
- A value retailer with a strong price gap to Tesco and Asda.
- Expected to grow with store expansion and potential synergies from Heron Foods acquisition.
- Strong balance sheet with potential for a special dividend.
- Valuation at 19.6x CY18E P/E, with a 1.3x PEG.
- Catalyst: Q3 results on 12-Jan.
BAT:
- Strong growth in next-generation products (NGPs) could drive 5-6% organic growth.
- Currently undervalued compared to the sector and international peers.
- Potential for 50% total shareholder return (TSR) over two years.
- Catalysts: US tax reform, FY17 results, FDA comments.
Bovis Homes:
- Strong growth potential in the UK and Spain.
- Dividend yield of over 9%.
- Valuation at 1.2x 2018E P/TNAV.
- Catalysts: FY trading update on 12-Jan, FY results on 1-Mar.
Carrefour:
- SELL recommendation due to weak market position and competitive pressures in France.
- Currently trades at a 11% premium to peers despite weak fundamentals.
- Catalyst: Strategic plan on 23-Jan.

Financials Sector

Aroundtown Properties:
- Strong growth from acquisitions and rental increases.
- Potential for 15% upside with 20% rental growth and re-gearing.
- Valuation at 0.9x 2018E P/B.
- Catalyst: Potential inclusion in MDAX in March.
AXA:
- Gains from rising bond yields, especially in the US.
- Re-rating potential from M&A and 5% EPS growth.
- Valuation at 9.5x 2019E P/E.
- Catalysts: M&A during 2018, FY and 1H results.
Banco Santander:
- Strong growth in Brazil and Spain due to economic recovery.
- Lower cost of risk and strong cost control.
- Valuation at 0.9x P/B with 11.4% RoTE.
- Catalysts: UK & Brazil newsflow, quarterly results.
Credit Suisse:
- Strong Wealth Management growth with 13% CAGR PBT.
- Potential for 18% upside with lower tax and better NII.
- Valuation at 10x 19E P/E.
- Catalysts: US tax reform passage, further delivery towards targets.
Prudential:
- Strong growth in Asia and US variable annuities.
- Valuation at 8x 19E PE and 9x EV/EBITDA.
- Catalysts: Sale of UK annuity book, US tax changes.

Healthcare Sector

AstraZeneca:
- Expected to see EPS growth of 12% CAGR to 2022.
- Strong pipeline with new oncology drugs and potential blockbusters.
- Valuation at 17x 18E P/E.
- Catalysts: Data on Imfinzi and Lymparza in 1Q18, readouts on roxadustat and anifrolumab.
Fresenius:
- Defensive low-teens EPS growth with strong market leadership.
- Valuation at 20x 18E P/E, undemanding.
- Catalysts: Qirónsalud integration, Helios Capital Markets Day.
Shire:
- Expected to recover with new long-term targets and pipeline opportunities.
- Valuation at 8x 19E PE, the cheapest stock in coverage.
- Catalysts: Completion of Neuroscience Review, clinical data on SHP621.

Energy, Materials & Industrials Sector

ABB:
- Strong growth in automation and electrification.
- Valuation at 18.4x 18E P/E, with potential for re-rating.
- Catalyst: Q4 results on 08-Feb.
ArcelorMittal:
- Strong growth in automotive and structural changes.
- Valuation at 5.0x 2018E EV/EBITDA, 14% discount to peers.
- Catalysts: Trade policy, steel margins, further rebound in iron ore.
BAE Systems:
- Strong FCF forecast by 2020 with potential for 63% TSR.
- Valuation at 13.5x 19E P/E, 30% discount to US peers.
- Catalysts: Conversion of contract opportunities.
Continental:
- Leading in automotive mega trends: autonomous driving, electrification, and digitalisation.
- Valuation at 1.2x 2018E P/TNAV.
- Catalysts: FY trading update on 12-Jan, FY results on 1-Mar.

TMT Sector

Eutelsat:
- SELL recommendation due to weak growth prospects.
- Catalyst: Strategic plan on 23-Jan.
Infineon:
- Strong growth in automotive and industrial segments.
- Catalysts: FY17 results, US tax reform.
Informa:
- Strong growth in digital and financial services.
- Catalysts: FY17 results, US tax reform.
KPN:
- Strong growth in digital services and infrastructure.
- Catalysts: FY17 results, US tax reform.
Sophos:
- Strong cybersecurity growth and product pipeline.
- Catalysts: FY17 results, US tax reform.
Vodafone:
- Strong growth in emerging markets and digital services.
- Catalysts: FY17 results, US tax reform.

Business Services, Leisure & Transport Sector

Deutsche Lufthansa:
- Strong growth in digital and ancillary services.
- Catalysts: FY trading update on 12-Jan, FY results on 1-Mar.
Royal Mail:
- SELL recommendation due to weak market position and operational challenges.
- Catalyst: Strategic plan on 23-Jan.
SGS:
- Strong growth in testing and inspection services.
- Catalysts: FY trading update on 12-Jan, FY results on 1-Mar.
Vinci:
- Strong growth in construction and infrastructure.
- Catalysts: FY trading update on 12-Jan, FY results on 1-Mar.

Key Information

The report highlights stocks with strong growth potential, attractive valuations, and clear catalysts.
Some stocks are recommended for buying due to undervaluation and growth prospects.
Others are recommended for selling due to weak fundamentals and underperformance.
The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors, such as rising bond yields and US tax reform, in driving growth and re-rating.
Valuation metrics such as P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA are used to assess the relative attractiveness of each stock.

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