穆迪-全球-股票策略-违约越少，股市越好-20180531-24页_743kb

报告摘要

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook provides insights into credit markets, equity performance, and macroeconomic indicators across the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions. The report emphasizes the relationship between corporate default rates and equity market performance, particularly the U.S. market, and outlines key economic data and forecasts for the upcoming week.

Main Points

Equity Market and Default Rates

A decline in U.S. high-yield default rates is strongly correlated with an increase in equity market values.
Historical data show that in 130 of 209 yearly declines in the default rate, the U.S. common stock market value increased.
The median annual increase in equity market value during default rate declines was +13.4%, while the median decline in the default rate was -1.5 percentage points.
However, when the default rate dropped by more than 7.5 percentage points, the equity market surged by +28.1% annually on average.
A sharp drop in the default rate from 3.7% (April 2018) to 1.5% (April 2019) is expected, which could support a recovery in stock prices.

Treasury Yields and Market Impact

Higher Treasury yields can offset the positive influence of fewer defaults, especially when they exceed expectations.
The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to rise to 3.2% by the end of 2018, which could pose a risk to the equity market recovery.
The report warns that the yield's climb may not be sustainable due to current market conditions and economic indicators.

Credit Market Metrics

Investment Grade (IG) Bond Spreads: Expected to exceed 124 bp by year-end 2018.
High Yield (HY) Bond Spreads: Projected to rise to 425 bp by year-end 2018, compared to a recent 377 bp.
Corporate Bond Issuance: U.S. IG issuance is expected to fall by 7.1% to $1.401 trillion, while HY issuance may drop by 9.0% to $412 billion.
Systemic Liquidity Risk: If the HY bond spread widens and defaults worsen, it could lead to reduced systemic liquidity.

U.S. Economic Outlook

Q1 GDP: Revised down to 2.2% annualized growth, slightly below the initial 2.3%.
Q2 GDP Forecast: Expected to rebound to 3.7% annualized growth, driven by fading base effects and improved weather conditions.
Consumer Spending: Revised down to 1% annualized growth in Q1, with services showing a slight uptick.
Nonresidential Fixed Investment: Revised up by 3.1 percentage points, led by structures and intellectual property products.
Intellectual Property Investment: Grew 14.3% in Q1, pointing to 1% to 1.5% trend productivity growth over the next couple of years.
Productivity and Costs: Rose 0.7% annualized in Q1, with unit labor costs increasing 2.7%.
Government Spending: Federal government spending showed a respectable gain, partly due to hurricane-related spending.

Europe Economic Outlook

Euro Zone GDP: Expected to grow 0.4% q/q in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2017.
Annual Growth: Projected to edge down to 2.4%, still above the 2.1% average of the past two years.
Industrial Production: Mixed results across major economies, with Germany showing a decline and France experiencing a slowdown.
Retail Sales: Expected to show a 0.5% q/q increase in April, with a focus on the Euro Zone.
Consumer Spending: Likely to remain steady, as a decline in goods spending was offset by a small increase in services.

Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook

Japan GDP: Second estimate for Q1 shows a -0.2% q/q growth, following a 0.4% gain in the previous quarter.
China Trade Data: Suggests that trade tensions with the U.S. have not significantly impacted activity, though imminent tariffs could cause issues.
Australia GDP: Expected to grow 0.5% q/q in Q1, with net exports contributing positively.
Australia Retail Sales: Seasonally adjusted retail trade is projected to rise 0.4% m/m in April.
Australia Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the cash rate at 1.5%, with rate hikes expected in early 2019.
India Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India may keep the repo rate at 6%, though a 40% probability of a rate hike exists due to pressure from outflows.