2025-06-04-Jefferies-美国人寿保险_回到未来；修订目标价格并重新排名股票_66页_1mb
报告摘要
Summary of US Life: Back to the Future; Revising PTs and Re-Ranking our Stocks
Core Content
This document outlines the recent revision of price targets (PTs) and stock rankings for US Life sector equities. The analysis reflects a strategic shift back to annuity-levered stocks following a period of diversification in response to market volatility. The key drivers for this shift include the expectation of a more stable equity market compared to the April 2025 "Tariff Tantrum," and increased confidence in the Return of Retail (RoR) thesis, which posits that annuities are the area with the greatest disconnect between growth potential and valuation in the US Life sector.
The revised top picks are Equitable Holdings (EQH), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), and Lincoln National (LNC). These stocks are highlighted for their exposure to the annuity growth thesis, strong FCF per share growth, and product innovation.
Main Points
- Sector Focus: The firm is shifting back to a focus on annuity-levered companies after a brief period of diversification.
- Market Volatility Expectations: The firm anticipates lower volatility in the equity market compared to the past, leading to a more constructive outlook on annuity stocks.
- Return of Retail Thesis: The thesis suggests continued growth in annuity demand from Baby Boomers and future support from Generation X, which supports the current stock ranking.
- Stock Re-ranking: The re-ranking is based on updated 2026 EPS estimates and changes in P/E multiples, with a focus on FCF growth and macro exposure.
- Price Target Revisions: Price targets have been updated across the portfolio, with an average 17% upside for the group and 32% for Buy-rated stocks.
Key Stocks and Their Details
| Ticker | Rating | Price Target | Upside | 2026 EPS | 2025E P/E | 2025E P/FCF | Beta | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQH | Buy | $70.00 | 33% | $7.95 | 8.8x | ~11x | 1.3 | 2% |
| CRBG | Buy | $41.00 | 26% | $5.65 | 6.7x | ~10x | 1.3 | 3% |
| LNC | Buy | $48.00 | 46% | $7.55 | 4.5x | ~10x | 1.5 | 5% |
| RGA | Buy | $284.00 | 39% | $26.50 | 10.7x | ~14x | 0.8 | 2% |
| UNM | Buy | $110.00 | 34% | $10.10 | 9.0x | ~10x | 0.7 | 2% |
| MET | Buy | $100.00 | 27% | $9.90 | 10.1x | ~13x | 0.9 | 3% |
| AMP | Buy | $605.00 | 19% | $41.20 | 13.9x | ~15x | 1.2 | 1% |
| PRU | Buy | $134.00 | 29% | $14.90 | 7.6x | ~12x | 1.0 | 5% |
| VOYA | Hold | $72.00 | 9% | $9.75 | 8.1x | ~13x | 1.0 | 3% |
| JXN | Hold | $80.00 | (3%) | $20.20 | 4.2x | ~7x | 1.5 | 4% |
| CNO | Hold | $42.00 | 11% | $4.25 | 9.9x | ~17x | 1.0 | 2% |
| PFG | Hold | $74.00 | (4%) | $9.05 | 9.5x | ~12x | 1.0 | 4% |
| PRI | Hold | $290.00 | 7% | $22.80 | 12.7x | ~18x | 0.9 | 2% |
| AFL | Hold | $94.00 | (9%) | $7.10 | 15.4x | ~21x | 0.6 | 2% |
| BHF | Hold | $57.00 | (4%) | $21.90 | 3.1x | ~14x | 1.4 | 0% |
Key Changes
| Ticker | Rating | Price Target | % Change | Upside / Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQH | Buy | $70.00 | +6% | +33% |
| CRBG | Buy | $41.00 | +11% | +26% |
| LNC | Buy | $48.00 | +4% | +46% |
| UNM | Buy | $110.00 | +3% | +34% |
| MET | Buy | $100.00 | +4% | +27% |
| RGA | Buy | $284.00 | +0% | +39% |
| PRU | Buy | $134.00 | +4% | +29% |
| AMP | Buy | $605.00 | +0% | +19% |
| VOYA | Hold | $72.00 | +7% | +9% |
| JXN | Hold | $80.00 | +0% | (3%) |
| CNO | Hold | $42.00 | (2%) | +11% |
| PFG | Hold | $74.00 | (4%) | (4%) |
| PRI | Hold | $290.00 | +11% | +7% |
| AFL | Hold | $94.00 | (9%) | (7%) |
| BHF | Hold | $57.00 | (4%) | (4%) |
Bubble Stocks
- LNC: Has a 20% ETR and 5% dividend yield, suggesting potential for upgrades. Despite poor performance since Liberation Day, it remains the only Buy rating.
- CRBG: Consensus Buy but has only 15% ETR. Could see upward PT revisions, with BSI beat and lower Fed rate cut probability as positive factors.
- PRU: Consensus non-Buy, but has 14% ETR and 5% yield. May be upgraded if it underperforms further, though the firm has low conviction on a catalyst.
- CNO: Consensus Hold with 16% upside. May see more positive views if fundamentals hold.
Bottom Line
The firm remains constructive on the US Life sector, believing that annuity companies have the most upside due to the growth potential versus current valuations. The re-ranking reflects a return to a focus on annuity-levered stocks, with a view toward stability in the equity markets and continued demand for annuities.
Key Figures and Metrics
- FCF Growth: The top three stocks (EQH, CRBG, LNC) are expected to generate 18%+ FCF per share growth through 2028, compared to a sector average of ~11%.
- YTD Performance: Baskets 1 and 2 have outperformed the SPX and Hold-rated stocks, while PRU, RGA, and AMP underperformed.
- Total Return Upside: The group has an average of 17% upside, with Buy-rated stocks showing up to 32% upside.
- Dividend Yield: Most stocks have yields between 2% and 5%, with LNC having the highest at 5%.
Appendix Highlights
- The firm has detailed views on 8 Buy-rated stocks and other Hold-rated stocks, with specific reasons for their investment theses.
- Figures 10–13 in the appendix provide additional insights into the firm's stock-specific analysis, including ETR, P/E, and P/FCF multiples.
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