20170529-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_19页_991kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 29 May 2017
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of market insights and investment recommendations for various regions and sectors, including Macau Gaming, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes updates on key companies, sector valuations, and corporate events.
Main Points
Macau Gaming
- GGR Growth Outlook: Expected to maintain robust GGR growth through 2018, with 2017 growth likely to ease to low double digits (4M17: +13.8% yoy).
- Infrastructure Impact: Completion of major projects like the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge and SJM's Grand Lisboa Palace is anticipated to boost GGR in 2018.
- Licence Renewal: The government is expected to handle the bidding process pragmatically, with minimal impact on operators. Sands China is highlighted as the top pick with a target price of HK$40.00.
- Sector Valuation: The Macau gaming sector is reasonably valued at 15.5x 2017F EV/EBITDA, which is above the historical average of 12.5x. However, this reflects the strong mass market growth expected.
- Earnings Performance: Sector EBITDA grew 27% yoy in 1Q17, with most operators beating expectations. Galaxy and SJM had revised earnings forecasts.
Indonesia
- United Tractors (UNTR IJ): Upgraded to BUY after share price underperformance. The company saw a three-year high in heavy equipment sales, especially in the mining sector.
- Financials: 4M17 coal production and sales increased significantly. The company's net profit is expected to rise to Rp7,527m in 2017.
- Valuation: Current forward PE is 12.0x, which is considered attractive. Target price is Rp29,150, offering 18.6% upside.
- Coal Price Outlook: Stabilised at US$72-80/tonne, with minimal impact on UNTR's overall performance due to limited exposure to coal price (13% of total revenue).
Malaysia
- REITs Sector: Core net earnings grew at a slower pace in 1Q17, with muted growth expected in the near term. A recovery is anticipated in 3Q17.
- Affin Holdings (AHB MK): Downgraded to SELL due to underperformance in 1Q17 (8.4% below estimates) and significant asset quality deterioration.
Singapore
- Shipyard Sector: Jack-up fundamentals are improving, but inventory risks will persist for a longer period.
Thailand
- Amata Corporation (AMATA TB): Maintained as a BUY, with land sales expected to be backloaded in 2H17.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 21080.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 6.7 |
| S&P 500 | 2415.8 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 7.9 |
| FTSE 100 | 7547.6 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| AS30 | 5792.1 | -0.6 | 0.4 | -2.6 | 1.3 |
| CSI 300 | 3480.4 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| FSSTI | 3219.4 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 11.8 |
| HSI | 25639.3 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 16.5 |
| JCI | 5716.8 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 7.9 |
| KLCI | 1772.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 8.0 |
| KOSPI | 2355.3 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 6.8 | 16.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19686.8 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| SET | 1569.3 | -0.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 1.7 |
| TWSE | 10102.0 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 9.2 |
| BDI | 912 | -0.7 | -4.6 | -17.8 | -5.1 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2875 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 10.2 | -10.1 |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 52 | 0.4 | -2.8 | 1.2 | -7.8 |
Top Picks
BUY
- Alibaba (BABA US): Target price HK$139.00, with 12.1% potential upside.
- Beijing Ent. Water (371 HK): Target price HK$7.60, with 24.4% potential upside.
- Telekomunikasi (TLKM J): Target price Rp5,000.00, with 11.9% potential upside.
- Tiga Pilar (AISA J): Target price Rp2,500.00, with 16.8% potential upside.
- V.S. Industry (VSI MK): Target price HK$2.20, with 15.8% potential upside.
- OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price HK$11.70, with 12.2% potential upside.
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price HK$600.00, with 14.1% potential upside.
- Sands China (1928 HK): Target price HK$40.00, with 18.6% potential upside.
SELL
- Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price HK$6.00, with -26.8% potential downside.
- MGM China (2282 HK): Target price HK$15.00, with -11.7% potential downside.
- Hartalega (HART MK): Target price HK$4.07, with -35.7% potential downside.
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP Growth (% yoy) | 2016 | 2017F | 2018F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Singapore | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Thailand | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Indonesia | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| China | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
Corporate Events
- Analyst Presentation on Singapore Property & REITs Strategy: 29 May – 31 May (Canada), 1 Jun – 6 Jun (US)
- Roadshow with Tongda Group Holdings: 1 Jun (Hong Kong)
- Roadshow with United Overseas Bank: 2 Jun (Canada)
- Group meeting with Fortune REIT: 7 Jun (Hong Kong)
- Roadshow with Meidong Auto Holdings: 8 Jun (Taipei)
- Roadshow with Tonly Electronics Holdings: 8 Jun – 9 Jun (Taipei)
- Roadshow with GFPT Public Company: 8 Jun – 9 Jun (Hong Kong)
- Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital: 5 Jun – 16 Jun (Canada)
- Analyst Presentation on Spore Strategy: 15 Jun (Kuala Lumpur)
- Luncheon with United Overseas Bank: 3 Jul (Singapore)
- Sarawak Oil Palms Site Visit: 3 Jul – 5 Jul (Sarawak)
- Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation: 5 Sep – 12 Sep (US/Canada)
Taipa Maritime Terminal
- Opens on June 1
- 5-floor terminal with 200,000 sqm area
- Capacity for 400,000 passengers per day and 40 ferries per hour
- 8 operational berths at initial stage, with more added later
- First commercial helipad in the Cotai area
Analyst Contact
- Vincent Khoo, CFA: +603 2147 1998, vincentkhoo@uobkayhian.com
- Cindy Lam: +852 2826 4867, cindy.lam@uobkayhian.com.hk
- Adrianus Bias Prasuryo: (62 21) 2993 3990, adrianusbias@uobkayhian.com
Summary of Key Financial Metrics for United Tractors
| Metric | 2017F | 2018F | 2019F | % of UOBKH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover (Rp) | 55,462 | 61,997 | 66,854 | 45.3 |
| EBITDA (Rp) | 13,575 | 15,342 | 16,346 | - |
| Net profit (Rp) | 7,527 | 8,684 | 9,239 | - |
| EPS (Rp) | 2,018 | 2,328 | 2,476.9 | - |
| PE (x) | 12.2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | - |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | - |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 3.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | - |
Conclusion
The report highlights a mix of buy and sell recommendations across the regions, with a focus on the Macau gaming sector and United Tractors in Indonesia. Key drivers include GGR growth, infrastructure developments, and coal price stability. The Macau gaming sector is expected to benefit from improved mass market performance and infrastructure completion, while United Tractors is viewed as a value play with strong operational performance and a positive outlook for coal prices.
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