20240630-广发期货-锌期货周报_加工费低位_冶炼利润倒挂_多单持有_24页_2mb

报告摘要

Macro & Terminal Demand Overview
The May CPI in the US was lower than expected, but the dot plot showed a significant reduction in expected interest rate cuts for the year, from three to one, below market expectations. Core CPI remained stable, but overall, this suggests a dampening of metal prices due to higher interest rates.

5月份美国CPI同比上升3.3%，也低于预期的3.4%；剔除能源、食品的核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，预期为0.3%；核心CPI同比上涨3.4%，预估值为3.5%。

On June 7, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that May non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000, significantly higher than expected, indicating strong labor markets. This reinforced the Federal Reserve's stance against rate cuts, further pressuring metal prices.

5月份中国制造业PMI指数降至49.5%，低于荣枯线，反映制造业整体偏弱。

In China, the May PMI dropped to 49.5%, below the contraction line, while US durable goods orders fell significantly, signaling a slowdown in industrial activity. Additionally, China's real estate sector showed signs of weakness, with a sharp decline in urban fixed-asset investments and construction indicators.

On the supply side, processing fees for zinc mines are at low levels, and production costs have inverted, leading to reduced output from some refineries. Despite this, domestic demand, particularly from the automotive sector with its push for electric vehicles, remains a potential support factor.

The outlook suggests moderately positive sentiment with a range-bound market around 23,000–24,300 yuan/ton support.