2025-05-22-Bernstein-TJX公司（TJX）_TJX解决关键争议_20页_930kb

Analysis Summary of TJX Cos Inc/The

TJX Cos Inc/The maintained its "Outperform" rating and a price target of $145 USD, reflecting confidence in its performance during a challenging economic environment. The company demonstrated resilience with a strong Q2 start, guided by a 2-3% comparable store sales growth for the year, although tariffs introduced a short-term margin headwind in Q2.

Regarding consumer demand, the company attributed the underperformance of its Marmaxx banner to February weather, with a subsequent improvement in March-April. Apparel segment comps recovered, contributing positively to the overall trajectory. Mgmt expressed strong confidence in achieving their comp guidance.

Supply availability is not a significant concern following the easing of China tariffs. TJX leverages its vendor relationships and flexible store plans to offset any category-specific shortages, avoiding visible gaps in offerings.

Although tariffs impact Q2 margins, management expects to neutralize costs through supply chain shifts and pricing adjustments. The gross margin guidance remains unchanged at 30.9%, with the ability to pass value to consumers while maintaining their competitive positioning.

TJX is positioned as a defensive stock in this macro environment due to its high-income demographic exposure (Avg HH Income $240K+) and proven resilience during prior downturns. The company continues to gain share and is expected to maintain its premium valuation (avg PE 25x) while outperforming on EPS growth.

Key risks identified include potential widening of the value differential with broader market and rising wage costs, but these are offset by the company's demonstrated pricing power and operational efficiencies.