20180703-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_690kb

EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DAILY Summary

Core Content Overview

This document is a morning meeting note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. dated 03 July 2018, focusing on the Turkish economy, inflation, foreign trade deficit, and market indicators such as FX rates, bond yields, and volatility curves. It is produced by the BNP Paribas group and includes strategy insights, data analysis, and legal disclosures.

Key Economic Indicators

Inflationary Pressures

• June CPI forecast is expected to rise by 1.3% m/m (vs. consensus of 1.4%), pushing annual inflation to 13.9% y/y from 12.1% y/y in May.
• The increase in inflation is attributed to weaker currency, higher energy prices, and rise in fresh fruit-vegetable prices.
• Base effect is also a contributing factor, as June 2017 inflation was 0.5% m/m, lower than the long-term average of 0.7% and the lowest level last year.
• Headline inflation is expected to peak at around 15% in July due to lagged effects of currency depreciation.
• Annualized CPI inflation in August-October 2017 was 0.9% m/m, indicating a gradual decline in inflation in the coming months.

Foreign Trade Deficit

• The foreign trade deficit declined by USD 0.5bn y/y to USD 5.5bn in June, marking the first decline since June last year.
• Energy imports increased by USD 0.9bn y/y, but non-energy imports saw a more significant improvement.
• The slowdown in economic activity led to a decline in imports of intermediate goods, contributing to the decline in the deficit.
• Exports also eased marginally to USD 13bn in June, the first decline in over a year, likely due to slower EU economies.

Current Account Deficit

• The annualized current account deficit to GDP ratio is expected to ease slightly in May-June, thanks to the recovery in tourism revenues.
• Foreign tourist arrivals increased by 27.3% y/y in May, with annualized numbers reaching 35.1mn, close to the previous peak in 2015.
• The current account deficit is likely to decline to c6.3% of GDP in June from 6.6% in April.

Market Indicators

Foreign Exchange Market

• USDTRY spot rate is 4.6207, with a daily change of 0.6% and a weekly change of 0.2%.
• EURTRY spot rate is 5.3760, with a daily change of 0.1% and a weekly change of -0.1%.
• Forward implied and XCCY swap rates show mixed trends, with some rates increasing and others decreasing.

Bond Market

• Local Government Bonds:
  • 2Y: 19.21% (d/d: -0.04%, w/w: -0.03%)
  • 5Y: 17.67% (d/d: +0.31%, w/w: +0.55%)
  • 10Y: 16.90% (d/d: +0.13%, w/w: -0.02%)
• Sovereign Bonds:
  • 2Y (05.06.2020): Price 102.4, Yield 5.51%, Zsprd 272.4
  • 5Y (09.10.2026): Price 88.0, Yield 6.75%, Zsprd 382.6
  • 10Y (16.04.2043): Price 74.2, Yield 7.07%, Zsprd 411.8
  • 17.02.2045: Price 88.6, Yield 7.61%, Zsprd 466.2
• CPI Linkers:
  • 2Y: 15.56% (d/d: 0.00%, w/w: -0.21%)
  • 5Y: 14.06% (d/d: 0.00%, w/w: -0.12%)
  • 10Y: 13.34% (d/d: 0.00%, w/w: -0.07%)
• Corporate Bonds:
  • Isctr 2021: Price 93.3, Yield 7.64%, Zsprd 476.7
  • Garanti 2022: Price 94.8, Yield 6.58%, Zsprd 369.0
  • Akbank 2025: Price 87.9, Yield 7.36%, Zsprd 445.3

Yield Curve and Volatility

• CBRTs Average Repo Funding Rate is shown in a graph.
• USDTRY ATM Vol Curve is provided, indicating volatility levels for different maturities.
• Government Bonds Yield Curve is also included, showing bond yields for various maturities.

Key Views and Insights

• The economic activity is slowing down, as indicated by:
  • Manufacturing PMI at 46.8 (up 0.4 points from previous month, still below the 50 threshold).
  • Imports of intermediate goods and automotive production showing negative growth.
  • Electricity production also declined slightly.
• Economic confidence and domestic demand are deteriorating, contributing to the overall slowdown.
• The foreign trade deficit is expected to continue improving, but not significantly due to ongoing economic slowdown.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• This document is non-independent research and is intended for marketing purposes.
• It is not investment research under MiFID II and is not subject to independence requirements.
• It may contain "Research" as defined under MiFID II unbundling rules.
• BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest, including:
  • Financial interests in issuers.
  • Roles in investment banking, underwriting, and advisory services.
  • Confidential information may be used in transactions.
• The document is for information purposes only, and no assurance is given regarding future performance or transactions.
• Simulated performance is not indicative of actual results.
• ETFs and convertible securities may be unregistered and subject to restrictions.
• Options are complex instruments with high risk and are not suitable for all investors.
• U.S. Disclosures include:
  • Important Option Disclosures.
  • Important ETF Disclosures.
  • Important Disclosures for Convertibles Securities.
• The document is only for Qualified Institutional Buyers or non-U.S. persons.
• BNPP Securities Corp is responsible for U.S. transactions based on this document.

Contacts

• H. Erkin Isik, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul, +90 216 635 2987, erkin.isik@teb.com.tr
• Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC London, London, +44 20 7595 8746, wike.groenenberg@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Sao Paulo Latam, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3418, marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.com
• Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 8715, piotr.chwiejczak@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London, +44 20 7595 1872, sai.ulluri@uk.bnpparibas.com
• Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore, +65 6210 3262, mirza.s.baig@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Dawn Kwa: Graduate, Singapore, +65 6210 3263, dawn.kwa@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Altaz Daga: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore, +65 6210 4994, altaz.daga@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Kun Shan: China Strategist, Shanghai, +86 21 2896 2773, kun.shan@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Tianhe Ji: China Strategist, Beijing, +86 10 6535 0836, tianhe.ji@asia.bnpparibas.com
• Gabriel Gersztein: Head FX & IR Latam Strategy, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3421, gabriel.gersztein@br.bnpparibas.com
• Samuel Castro: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3492, samuel.castro@br.bnpparibas.com
• Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo, +55 11 3841 3445, gustavo.mendonca@br.bnpparibas.com

Disclaimer

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is not investment research and not subject to independence requirements.
• It is not a prospectus, advertisement, or public offering.
• BNP Paribas does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
• Simulated performance is not indicative of actual results.
• Transactions may involve high risk and volatility.
• Confidentiality is emphasized, and distribution is restricted without prior written consent.
• Legal notices and disclosures apply in U.S., UK, and France.