20171215-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_573kb

报告摘要

Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DESKNOTE

Core Content

This document is a strategy desk note from Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S. dated 15 December 2017, providing insights into the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)'s monetary policy decision and its implications on the Turkish financial market. The note includes analysis of recent monetary policy actions, market reactions, and the upcoming data releases, as well as information on investor behavior and key financial indicators.

Key Monetary Policy Actions

The CBRT increased the late liquidity window (LLW) rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 12.75%, which was below market consensus of 100bps but closer to the strategist's call of 75bps.
Other corridor rates were left unchanged.
The CBRT is likely to continue funding through LLW, leading to an increase in the average repo funding rate to 12.75%.
The decision was seen as underdelivering in terms of tightening, and the currency remains vulnerable to changes in global risk sentiment.

Market Reaction

The USDTRY appreciated to 3.88 from 3.83 before the decision.
Local investors increased their FX deposits by USD 2.7bn on the week ending 8 December, though it is still USD 4bn below the recent peak in mid-September.
Offshore investors reduced their equity portfolio slightly by USD 0.1bn, but increased their local bond portfolio and eurobonds.

Upcoming Data Releases

September labor market data will be released today, with expectations of a decline in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from 10.8% in August.
The November central government budget will also be announced. The cash-based budget balance improved by TRY 12.9bn y/y to TRY 5.7bn, but excluding technical factors, the deficit increased by TRY 3.7bn, indicating a deteriorating budget outlook.

FX and Bond Market Overview

Local government bonds and sovereign bonds show varying yields and prices, with 2Y local bonds at 13.47%, 5Y local bonds at 13.01%, and 10Y local bonds at 12.34%.
Sovereign bonds have prices ranging from 87.2 to 107.9, with yields between 3.55% and 6.07%.
CPI linkers are also highlighted, showing lower yields compared to inflation expectations.
The Government Bonds Yield Curve and XCCY Rate Curve are provided for reference.

FX Deposits and Liquidity

Local investors have been cautious, increasing FX deposits by USD 2.7bn on the week ending 8 December.
They had lowered deposits by USD 9bn between 15 September and 3 November to provide FX liquidity and prevent further depreciation.
After stabilization, they bought back USD 5bn.

Strategy Contacts

The document includes contact details for key strategy contacts in various regions, including:

Wike Groenenberg: Head of Emerging Markets Research, CEEMEA & APAC, London
Marcelo Carvalho: Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam, Sao Paulo
Piotr Chwiejczak: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Sai Ulluri: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Erkin İşkı, CFA: FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul
Mirza Baig: Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Altaz Daga: AU/NZ IR Strategist, Singapore
Dawn Kwa: Asia Graduate, Singapore
Kun Shan and Tianhe Ji: China Strategists, Shanghai
Gabriel Gersztein, Samuel Castro, and Gustavo Mendonca: FX & IR Latam Strategists, Sao Paulo

Legal and Compliance Notice

The document is a marketing communication, not investment research, and is non-independent.
It is not intended for retail investors and is only for professional clients.
BNP Paribas and its affiliates may have conflicts of interest, and may engage in transactions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in the document.
No liability is accepted for any losses arising from reliance on the document.
Options and ETFs mentioned are complex instruments and not suitable for all investors.
The document may contain back-tested performance data and is not a prospectus.

Conclusion

The CBRT's decision to raise the LLW rate by 50bps to 12.75% was seen as underdelivering compared to market expectations. The currency remains vulnerable, and the inflation outlook is not expected to improve in the short term. Local investors are cautious, and the market is likely to remain on the sidelines for now. The next decision is expected on 18 January, with inflation expectations and core price trends likely to be decisive. The document serves as a strategy update and includes key contacts and legal disclaimers.