20141006-瑞士信贷_香港_-Asian_Daily_23页_2mb
报告摘要
CREDIT SUISSE Research Summary - 06 October 2014
Core Content Overview
This document contains a summary of Credit Suisse's research activities and financial insights from 06 October 2014, focusing on Asian markets, corporate events, and specific company analyses. It includes updates on earnings, target prices, and ratings for various firms, along with market performance data and valuation metrics.
Key Companies and Their Updates
| Company | EPS Change | TP Change | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| NagaCorp Limited | -5% | +3% | O |
| China Resources Land | -4% | 0% | O |
| Mizuho Financial Group | +7% | +4% | N |
| Orix | 0% | +1% | O |
| Daum Communications | -9% | +47% | O |
| Merry Electronics Co. Ltd | -5% | -5% | O |
| BEC World | -1% | +2% | U |
| MCOT | -31% | -25% | U |
Corporate Events and Tours
-
Wuhan Auto Show Tour
- Date: 20-21 October
- Analyst: Bin Wang
-
Pre CIC - Regional Internet Tour
- Date: 21-27 October (Shanghai, Beijing, Seoul)
- Analyst: Dick Wei
-
Pre CIC – China Banks/Macro Day
- Date: 23-27 October (China)
- Analyst: Vincent Chan
-
Post CIC – Macau Tour
- Date: 31 October (Macau)
- Analyst: Kenneth Fong
-
China Solar and T&D Tour
- Date: 10-12 November (China)
- Analyst: Edmond Huang
-
China Industrial Tour
- Date: 17-21 November (China)
- Analyst: Edmond Huang
-
China Environment “Green Trip”
- Date: 18-21 November (China)
- Analyst: Trina Chen
-
China Investment Conference (CIC)
- Date: 28-30 October, Hong Kong
- Analyst: Thomas Wong
-
Japan/Korea Corporate Day
- Date: 17 November, Hong Kong
- Analyst: Dick Wei / Karim Salamatian
-
China Online/Offline E-Commerce Corpor
- Date: 20-21 November, Hong Kong
- Analyst: Dick Wei / Karim Salamatian
Market Indices Performance
Asian Indices
| Index | Closing | 1D | 1W | 3M | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASX300 | 5,264 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -3.7 | -0.8 |
| CSEALL | 7,407 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 14.3 | 25.3 |
| Hang Seng | 23,065 | 0.6 | -2.6 | -2.0 | -1.0 |
| H-SHARE | 10,349 | 0.4 | -2.2 | -1.3 | -4.3 |
| JCI | 4,949 | -1.0 | -3.6 | 0.9 | 15.8 |
| KLSE | 1,841 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -2.3 | -1.4 |
| KOSPI | 1,976 | -0.8 | -2.8 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| KSE100 | 30,103 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 19.2 |
| NIFTY | 7,946 | -0.2 | -0.7 | 3.0 | 26.0 |
| NIKKEI | 15,709 | 0.3 | -3.2 | 1.8 | -3.6 |
| TOPIX | 1,283 | 0.2 | -3.7 | -0.2 | -1.5 |
| PCOMP | 7,247 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 4.1 | 23.0 |
| RED CHIP | 4,443 | 0.9 | -2.6 | 0.0 | -2.4 |
| SET | 1,570 | 0.0 | -1.9 | 5.0 | 20.9 |
| VNINDEX | 612 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 21.2 |
Global Indices
| Index | Closing | 1D | 1W | 3M | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17,010 | 1.2 | -0.6 | -0.3 | 2.6 |
| S&P 500 | 1,968 | 1.1 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 6.5 |
| NASDAQ | 4,476 | 1.0 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 7.2 |
| SOX | 623 | 0.6 | -3.1 | -4.2 | 16.5 |
| EU-STOX | 2,996 | 0.8 | -2.2 | -2.6 | 2.6 |
| FTSE | 6,528 | 1.3 | -1.8 | -4.9 | -3.3 |
| DAX | 9,196 | -2.0 | -3.3 | -8.1 | -3.7 |
| CAC-40 | 4,282 | 0.9 | -2.6 | -4.2 | -0.3 |
| 10 YR LB | 2 | 1.2 | -2.5 | -6.7 | -18.6 |
| 2 YR LB | 1 | 6.0 | -2.6 | 10.1 | 46.8 |
| US$:E | 1.25 | 0.0 | -1.3 | -8.0 | -9.0 |
| US$:Y | 109.71 | 0.0 | -3.2 | 1.8 | -3.6 |
| GOLD | 0.00 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -9.8 | -1.2 |
| VIX | 0.0 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 41.0 | 6.0 |
Asian Currencies vs US$
| Currency | Closing | 1D | 1W | 3M | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A$ | 0.9 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -7.4 | -2.6 |
| Bt | 32.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | -0.2 |
| D | 21,190.0 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
| JPY | 109.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 4.2 |
| NT$ | 30.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| P | 45.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| PRs | 102.4 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
| Rp | 12,175.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.1 |
| Rs | 61.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 3.0 | -0.4 |
| S$ | 1.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| W | 1,061.1 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 0.6 |
MSCI Asian Indices - Valuation & Performance
| MSCI Index | EPS Growth (14E) | EPS Growth (15E) | P/E (14E) | P/E (15E) | Performance (1D) | Performance (1M) | Performance (YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia F X Japan | 12 | 11 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 0.5 | -7.2 | 2.1 |
| Asia Pac F X J. | 12 | 10 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 0.2 | -8.6 | 0.7 |
| Australia | 8 | 6 | 15.0 | 14.2 | -0.8 | -12.6 | -3.6 |
| China | 8 | 10 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 0.7 | -8.7 | -1.6 |
| Hong Kong | 8 | 9 | 15.1 | 13.8 | 0.8 | -8.6 | 0.2 |
| India | 15 | 15 | 17.8 | 15.4 | 0.0 | -3.6 | 23.2 |
| Indonesia | 10 | 13 | 15.0 | 13.3 | -1.2 | -9.1 | 18.0 |
| Korea | 19 | 13 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 0.0 | -9.5 | -7.7 |
| Taiwan | 11 | 12 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 2.0 | -5.6 | 7.3 |
China Oil & Gas Sector
- Credit Suisse has lowered its 4Q14 and 2015 oil price forecasts by 5-11% and 5-7%, respectively.
- New forecast: Brent to average $98/bbl in 4Q14 and $97/bbl in 2015.
- Long-term forecast: $86/bbl (down from $90/bbl).
- Oil supply growth (non-OPEC, led by the US) exceeded global demand by 1mb/d in 2Q14.
- If Saudi Arabia does not cut output in 1Q15, oil prices could fall to an economic floor of $80/bbl Brent or $70/bbl WTI.
Pecking Order in China Oil Sector
| Company | Rating | TP (HK$) | EPS (Rmb) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinopec | O | 9.5 | 0.58 |
| COSL | O | 24.0 | 0.69 |
| PetroChina | N | 9.7 | 0.69 |
| CNOOC | N | 12.0 | 1.10 |
Key Insights
- Daum Communications: Maintains OUTPERFORM rating; target price increased to W220,000. The company is expanding its mobile platform and improving monetisation.
- China Oil & Gas Sector: Sinopec is still preferred over other major players due to its clear IPO roadmap and operational improvements.
- Corporate Events: The CIC and various thematic tours are planned to connect investors with companies in different sectors.
- Market Risks: Include market hype, slower integration, overseas marketing efforts, and social events impacting new messenger systems.
Research Contact and Mailing Options
- Research Mailing Changes: Contact asia.research@credit-suisse.com.
- Sales Contact:
- Hong Kong: 852 2101 7211
- Singapore: 65 6212 3052
- London: 44 20 7888 4367
- New York: 1 212 325 5955
- Boston: 1 617 556 5634
Valuation Metrics for Key Companies
| Company | Ticker | P/E (14E) | P/E (15E) | P/B (14E) | P/B (15E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daum | 035720.KQ | 43.4 | 24.7 | 7.9 | 11.5 |
| Tencent | 0700.HK | 34.8 | 25.9 | 11.5 | 12.3 |
| FB.OQ | 49.3 | 40.9 | 12.7 | 8.8 | |
| GOOGL.OQ | 22.1 | 17.3 | 3.8 | 8.2 | |
| NHN Ent. | 181710.KS | 28.8 | 24.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| NC Soft | 036570.KS | 12.8 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Summary of Key Reports
- Daum Communications: Mobile platform expansion underway; target price raised.
- China Oil & Gas Sector: Lower oil price forecasts; Sinopec remains preferred.
- China Resources Land: Nationwide promotion should accelerate contracted sales.
- Kaisa Group: Sales momentum continued in September and Golden Week.
- China Logistics Property Sector: Positive outlook due to State Council's plan.
- Thailand Broadcasting Sector: DTT migration process accelerating.
- India: Public holiday; market activity paused.
- Indonesia: Focus on F&B with Anthony Cottan.
- Japan: Mizuho Financial Group and Orix updates.
- South Korea: Daum Communications and Kia Motors reports.
- Taiwan: Merry Electronics Co. Ltd update.
Disclosures
- The report may contain analyst certifications and non-US analyst status.
- For more important disclosures, visit www.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683.
- Credit Suisse may have conflicts of interest in its research activities.
Additional Notes
- The report includes a detailed analysis of Daum's integration with Kakao and its potential as a mobile portal platform.
- The impact of new mobile services on earnings and valuations is emphasized.
- The document provides financial data and valuation metrics for various companies.
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