20141003-瑞士信贷_香港_-Asian_Daily_22页_2mb

报告摘要

CREDIT SUISSE: Asian Market Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a summary of Credit Suisse's analysis on Asian equity markets, including EPS and TP changes for specific companies, thematic trips and corporate events, yield movements across several countries, and performance data for Asian and global indices. It also includes insights on foreign investment trends and key sector updates, particularly in the technology and dairy industries.

Key Companies and Ratings

Company	EPS Change (T+1/T+2)	TP Change (Chg/Up/Dn)	Rating
Guangzhou R&F Properties Co Ltd	0 / 0	(6) / 2	N (U)
China Mengniu Dairy	(6) / (13)	(22) / 9	N (O)
China Modern Dairy	30 / (11)	(21) / (10)	U (O)
KrisEnergy Ltd	Initiation	17	O (NA)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (2330.TW)	Maintain O	Technology and competitive position easing some market fears
China Resources Land Ltd (1109.HK)	Maintain O	Encouragement from the visit to CR City
Guangzhou R&F Properties Co Ltd (2777.HK)	Upgrade to N	Credit risks may be alleviated for the near term
Compal Electronics (2324.TW)	Maintain O	-
TSMC (2330.TW)	Maintain OUTPERFORM	NT$145 target based on 14x 2015 EPS

Thematic Trips and Corporate Events

Korean Film Wave Tour at Busan Int'l Film Festival
- Date: 2-4 October
- Analyst: Taewon Kim
Wuhan Auto Show Tour
- Date: 20-21 October
- Analyst: Bin Wang
Pre CIC - Regional Internet Tour
- Date: 21-27 October (Shanghai, Beijing, Seoul)
- Analyst: Dick Wei
Pre CIC – China Banks/Macro Day
- Date: 23-27 October (Beijing, Shenzhen)
- Analyst: Vincent Chan
Post CIC – Macau Tour
- Date: 31 October
- Analyst: Kenneth Fong
China Solar and T&D Tour
- Date: 10-12 November (Shanghai, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing)
- Analyst: Edmond Huang
5th Annual China Investment Conference
- Date: 28-30 October, Hong Kong
- Focus: "New China" theme, covering sectors like Internet, consumer, and macroeconomic trends
- Participation: ~50 top Chinese A-share/H-share/US-listed companies
- Side tours: Regional Internet Tour, China Banks/Macro Day

Yield Movements (Sep-14)

Country	Closing	1D	1W	3M	YTD
A$	0.88	0.7	0.1	(6.0)	(1.3)
Bt	32.40	(0.1)	0.4	0.2	(0.9)
D	21,235	0.2	0.2	(0.1)	0.8
JPY	108.73	(0.1)	(0.0)	6.5	3.3
NT$	30.39	(0.1)	0.2	1.7	1.9
P	44.77	(0.1)	0.1	3.0	0.9
PRs	102.48	(0.1)	(0.2)	3.9	(2.6)
Rp	12,152	0.2	1.5	2.4	(0.1)
Rs	61.64	(0.1)	0.5	3.2	(0.3)
S$	1.27	(0.0)	0.1	2.1	0.7
SLRs	130.50	0.2	0.2	0.2	(0.2)
W	1,061.30	(0.1)	1.7	5.2	0.6

Asian Indices Performance

Index	Closing	1D	1W	3M	YTD
ASX300	5,244.40	(0.7)	(1.6)	(4.1)	(1.1)
CSEALL	7,351.05	0.8	1.6	13.5	24.3
Hang Seng	22,932.98	(1.3)	(3.8)	(2.6)	(1.6)
H-SHARE	10,310.40	(1.2)	(2.4)	(1.3)	(4.7)
JCI	5,000.81	(2.7)	(3.9)	1.9	17.0
KLSE	1,837.68	(0.4)	(0.3)	(2.5)	(1.6)
KOSPI	1,976.16	(0.8)	(2.8)	(1.7)	(1.7)
KSE100	30,071.58	0.2	0.4	1.5	19.0
NIFTY	7,945.55	(0.2)	(0.7)	3.0	26.0
NIKKEI	15,661.99	(2.6)	(4.3)	1.5	(3.9)
TOPIX	1,280.15	(2.9)	(4.9)	(0.4)	(1.7)
PCOMP	7,196.26	(1.0)	(1.3)	3.4	22.2
RED CHIP	4,402.05	(1.8)	(4.0)	(0.4)	(3.3)
SET	1,569.73	(1.1)	(1.4)	4.9	20.9
STI	3,228.71	(1.1)	(1.9)	(1.3)	1.9
TWSE	8,975.19	(0.2)	(0.4)	(5.6)	4.2
VNINDEX	612.66	0.6	1.2	4.0	21.4

Foreign Investment Trends

Net foreign selling in Emerging Asia ex-China ex-Malaysia reached US$2 bn in September and US$0.5 bn in October.
Taiwan saw the largest outflow with US$2.1 bn, followed by Korea (US$0.8 bn) and Indonesia (US$0.7 bn).
Thailand remained under-owned, with net selling at 0.4% of market cap.
Rolling 12-month net foreign buying in Taiwan dropped from 2.1% in August to 1.2% currently, aligning with historical average.
Korea also saw a decline, from 1.4% in July to 0.5% currently.

TSMC Analysis

Technology developments eased investor fears, with 28nm HPC offering a lower-cost High-K option and 20nm peak yields at 85%.
TSMC is expected to maintain over 60% of 28nm share and 90% of 20nm share in 2015, with 16nm becoming a key factor in 2015.
20nm ramp supports 2H14 EPS growth, and the stock is currently discounted to Taiwan at 12x 2014 EPS vs 14x for Taiwan.
Target price is NT$145, representing 14x 2015 EPS, and the rating is Maintain OUTPERFORM.

China Mengniu Dairy Analysis

Downgraded to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM due to weaker demand.
Earnings forecast for 2014: 2.2% YoY growth (excluding YSL and CMD), implying 4% YoY decline in 2H14.
2015 earnings forecast: 16.7% YoY growth.
P/E ratio: 24x 2015E P/E.
Target price: HK$35 (from HK$45), based on 24x 2015E P/E.

Corporate Days and Conferences

China Investment Conference (28-30 October, Hong Kong)
Japan/Korea Corporate Day (17 November, Hong Kong)
China Online/Offline E-Commerce Corporate Days (20-21 November, Hong Kong)
Pre CIC – Regional Internet Tour (21-27 October, Shanghai, Beijing, Seoul)
Pre CIC – China Banks/Macro Day (23-27 October, Beijing, Shenzhen)

Non-Deal Roadshows

Location	Company	Date	Analyst
Hong Kong	Westports Holdings Berhad (WPHB.KL)	07 October	Timothy Ross
Singapore	Mapletree Commercial Trust (MACT.SI)	27 October	Yvonne Voon
Europe	KT Corp (030200.KS)	17 October	Taewon Kim