20170227-辉立证券-FY16_profit_pressured_by_higher_operating_costs_13页_1mb

报告摘要

DTAC FY16 Results and FY17 Outlook Summary

核心内容

DTAC, a leading telecommunications company in Thailand, reported its FY16 results and provided an outlook for FY17. The results showed a significant decline in annual profit, primarily due to higher operating costs, particularly from network expansion and restructuring charges. Despite this, DTAC continued to expand its 4G network coverage across the country.

主要观点

FY16 Profit Decline: DTAC's annual profit fell by 65% year-over-year (y-y) to Bt2,086mn, mainly due to increased operating costs.
Subscriber Base: DTAC's total subscriber base dropped by 3% y-y to 24.5mn, with postpaid subscribers increasing to 21% of the total.
Revenue Decline: Service revenue excluding IC decreased by 2% y-y to Bt64,639mn, driven by a decline in voice revenue due to the shift from voice to data usage.
Network Expansion: DTAC expanded its 4G network, increasing the share of 4G nodes to 36% of the total, up from 15% a year earlier.
Capital Expenditure: FY16 capex was over Bt20bn, with depreciation and amortization charges rising by 26% y-y to Bt22,145mn.
Dividend Policy: DTAC skipped dividend payments for the second half of FY16 to improve financial flexibility for new opportunities, including future spectrum allocations.
Profit Forecast for FY17: Management guided that FY17 service revenue excluding IC would remain level with FY16, leading to a 30% cut in the profit forecast to Bt2,646mn.
Valuation and Recommendations: The 'SELL' call on DTAC shares was maintained, with the target price adjusted to Bt35.00/share from Bt35.50/share.
Financial Ratios: DTAC's P/E ratio decreased from 44.6 in FY16 to 35.1 in FY17E, while the P/B ratio dropped slightly from 3.4 to 3.3.

关键信息

财务表现

收入: FY16总收入为Bt81,433mn，较FY15下降6.69%。
净利润: FY16净利润为Bt2,086mn，较FY15下降64.61%。
每股收益 (EPS): FY16 EPS为0.88，较FY15下降68%。
净收入调整后: FY16净收入调整后为Bt2,086mn，FY17E预计为Bt2,646mn。
经营利润率: FY16经营利润率为4.65%，FY17E预计为9.51%。
净利率: FY16净利润率为2.56%，FY17E预计为3.20%。

资产负债表

总资产: FY16为Bt115,369mn，较FY15增长4%。
总负债: FY16为Bt88,224mn，较FY15增长5%。
股东权益: FY16为Bt27,144mn，较FY15增长0%。
账面价值 (BVPS): FY16为Bt11.46，FY17E预计为Bt12.05。
净负债/现金: FY16为Bt22,879mn，FY17E预计为Bt10,447mn。

现金流

经营现金流: FY16为Bt24,776mn，FY17E预计为Bt24,826mn。
资本支出 (CAPEX): FY16为Bt19,194mn，FY17E预计为Bt18,000mn。

投资者信息

公司数据: DTAC在泰国证券交易所 (SET) 上市，其市场资本为Bt92,937mn，约合USD2,646mn。
股东结构: 2016年7月28日，主要股东包括Telenor Asia Pte Ltd. (42.6%)、Thai Telco Holdings Ltd. (22.4%) 和 Thai NVDR (6.4%)。
市场表现: DTAC股价在2017年2月1日为Bt39.25，目标价为Bt35.00，较前一年下降8.1%。
股息收益率: FY16为1.1%，FY17E预计为2.7%。
ROE: FY16为7.67%，FY17E预计为9.51%。

估值方法

DCF估值: 使用折现率Ke为10.2%，终端增长率g为3.3%。
P/E倍数: FY16为44.6，FY17E预计为35.1。
P/B倍数: FY16为3.4，FY17E预计为3.3。

行业与竞争

竞争加剧: 电信行业竞争日益激烈，DTAC面临来自竞争对手的压力。
技术变化: 电信行业技术快速变化，DTAC需持续投资以保持竞争力。
带宽需求: 长期带宽需求增加，DTAC需确保其带宽充足。

未来发展

4G网络扩展: DTAC已覆盖泰国所有地区或94%的人口，继续投资以提升网络密度和客户互联网体验。
业务目标: DTAC在FY17将专注于后付费用户增长，并计划在未来恢复预付费用户增长。
潜在风险: 未来频谱短缺、技术变革和带宽需求增长是DTAC面临的主要风险。

同行比较

DTAC TB: 市值为Bt92,937mn，P/E为44.5，P/BV为3.4，股息收益率为2.4%。
ADVANC TB: 市值为Bt472,722mn，P/E为13.5，P/BV为9.8，股息收益率为7.7%。
TRUE TB: 市值为Bt218,562mn，P/E为1339.0，P/BV为2.2，股息收益率为0.1%。

总结

DTAC在FY16面临显著的利润压力，主要由于运营成本上升，尤其是4G网络扩展带来的资本支出和折旧摊销费用增加。尽管如此，DTAC继续推进4G网络覆盖，提升客户互联网体验。对于FY17，公司预计服务收入将保持与FY16持平，导致利润预期下调30%。考虑到行业竞争和技术变革，分析师维持“SELL”评级，并调整目标价至Bt35.00。DTAC的财务状况显示其资产负债表稳健，但面临未来频谱短缺的风险，这可能影响其长期发展。

展开完整摘要