2025-05-29-Jefferies-百思买（BBY）_中国采购占比从业务的一半以上降至三分之一_未来还有更多进展_9页_5mb

Best Buy Equity Research Summary

Rating and Target: This report recommends a "Buy" rating for Best Buy, with a 12-month price target of $88, representing a 23% upside from the current trading price of $71.52. The price target is based on 2026E earnings per share (EPS) of $6.95 and a 12.5x forward P/E ratio.

Key Highlights:

• Best Buy is a North American specialty retailer with nearly $43 billion in sales across diverse consumer electronics categories, including computing, entertainment, and appliances.
• Despite investor EPS expectations being slightly below street consensus, there are no red flags in consumer behavior, and sourcing diversification efforts are encouraging.
• China sourcing exposure has decreased from 55% in March to 30-35% today, driven by vendors shifting to alternative options and optimizing assortment. This trend could continue as vendors like HP plan to move nearly all North American sourcing outside China by early 2025.
• Strong growth in Tablets & Computing (+MSD%) and gaming consoles (pre-orders for Switch 2 selling out quickly) support the upside, with modest positive comparable sales despite Easter shift adjustments.
• Market opportunities include influencer-focused content on BBY platforms, with over 400 creators establishing storefronts, and robust 3P seller interest, which could enhance product breadth and revenue.

Market and Margin Outlook: The U.S. marketplace is expected to drive growing profit tailwinds through higher gross margin (GM%) in 2026 and beyond, with initiatives like retail media networks and cost-efficient logistics boosting EBIT%. 2H-25 margin recovery is realizable, with EPS growth potential of DD% (likely 3-4%) for 2026 and 2027, despite potential tariff challenges.

Risks: As with other retailers, risks include maturing product cycles, competitive pricing pressures from mass merchants and home centers, and possible negative impacts of heightened promotional levels or consumer spending softness. Tariff costs could compress GM% in CY25, but management is poised to mitigate these effects.

Financial Projections: Key metrics include projected 2026 revenue of $41.5 billion and EPS of $6.28, declining slightly from 2025 but showing positive trends. Consensus EPS for 2025 is $6.37, with upside scenarios including stronger GM% and membership growth.

Strategic Initiatives: Focus on associate training and digital engagement to improve conversion rates; optimizing supply chain costs through data-driven shipping; and ESG goals, such as reducing carbon emissions by 75% by 2030.

This summary covers the core elements of the report, including valuation, growth drivers, risks, and key financial outlook.