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Summary of Goldman Sachs China Travel & Leisure Report for 14 May 2025

Goldman Sachs analyzes China's travel stocks, noting a sharp rebound following positive Labor Day holiday data and eased trade tensions, with companies agreeing to roll back tariffs. The report focuses on 2025 guidance for Hotel/OTA companies, highlighting opportunities for revenue and margin upside.

• Key Trends: Leisure travel demand is resilient, though business travel remains uncertain amid macroeconomic challenges. Hotel RevPar is weak year-over-year, affecting top-line growth for OTAs like Trip.com and Tongcheng.

• Company Highlights:

  • H World (HTHT): Expected to achieve higher RevPar due to demand/supply imbalances and strong execution in its Deutscher Hospitality partnerships. Models 2% revenue growth for 2025, with a Buy rating and price target of US$57, offering upside.
  • Atour (ATAT): Shows solid gross hotel additions and retail sales momentum, modeling 27% revenue growth with a Buy rating and price target of US$36.7.
  • Trip.com (TCOM): Despite weaker-than-expected RevPar, higher-margin outbound business could beat conservative 27.5% margin guidance. Models 17% year-over-year revenue growth, with a Buy rating and US$78 target.
  • Tongcheng (0780.HK): Experiences core OTA revenue deceleration but benefits from short-haul growth and retail expansions. Models 11% revenue growth, with a Buy rating and HK$28 target after valuation recovery.
  • Macau Gaming: Operators like SJM and Wynn Macau show mixed results, with most meeting or exceeding lowered expectations amid industry consolidation and travel recovery.

• Outlook: While RevPar trends remain challenged, the report favors companies with leisure exposure and strong monetization potential. 2Q25 guidance is expected to be conservative due to business travel uncertainty, with valuation looks undemanding given pricing power and sector dynamics.

• Risks: Key challenges include macroeconomic headwinds, supply growth, competition, and potential RevPar drag. Overall, the sector is positioned for value-focused and consolidating benefits.

• Valuation: Several companies, including Galaxy and Air China-H, are Buy-rated with upside potential from margin expansion and operational efficiency.

Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious but positive stance on the travel sector, emphasizing its recovery trajectory and investment opportunities despite ongoing uncertainties.