2025-06-11-Jefferies-达美航空公司（DAL）_第二季度预览_第二季度表现出色_但确定2025年情况还为时过早_18页_285kb

Delta Air Lines (DAL) Equity Research Summary

As of June 11, 2025

Rating and Key Estimates

• Current Rating: HOLD at $51.68 with a target of $56 (+8%). Demand remains stable, but close-in booking greenshoots for summer holidays support a revised Q2 EPS estimate of $2.10 (previously $1.90), despite a full-year suspension of guidance.
• Q3 EPS: Estimated at $1.27, potentially at the low end of the range $1.25-1.75.
• 2025 EPS: $5.25, reflecting softer Q3 assumptions and modest TRASM declines.

Investment Thesis

Delta benefits from a premium consumer mix (margins ~15 pts higher), SkyMiles program growth (targeting $10B revenue by 2028), and TechOps expansion ($0.8B in external sales, to $5B+ by 2030). Key strengths include resilient domestic hubs and partnerships.

Risks and Catalysts

Downside risks include reversion to mean in international travel, elevated maintenance and salary costs, and slower-than-expected premium seat growth. Upside catalysts include SkyMiles revenue scaling and TechOps margin improvements.

Valuation

Jefferies' price target of $56 is based on 5.0x EV/EBITDAR (64% discount to S&P) and 8.5x P/E (58% discount to S&P) for 2026. The stock trades at a 61% discount to the market relative to its 3-year average, with 2026 EPS $6.95.

Additional Notes

• Earnings variance for Q2 and Q3 show better-than-expected performance but ongoing challenges with fuel and operational costs.
• Full-year 2025 guidance is suspended due to early-cycle reporting and visibility limitations.
• Exhibits provide detailed financials, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow data up to 2028.