20160714-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, including stock indices, market trends, economic data, and key stock information. It highlights the performance of various sectors, identifies stocks with potential for growth, and discusses the valuation metrics and short-selling activities.

Main Market Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 21,322, up 0.5% for the day and down 2.7% year-to-date (YTD).
• HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index): Closed at 8,909, up 0.6% for the day and down 7.8% YTD.
• Shanghai Composite Index: Closed at 3,061, up 0.4% for the day and up 13.5% YTD.
• Shenzhen Composite Index: Closed at 2,042, up 0.8% for the day and up 11.6% YTD.

Market Trends

• The Hong Kong market showed a mixed trend with the HSI and HSCEI rising slightly.
• Maanshan Iron & Steel (323.HK) announced a positive profit alert for the first half of the year, indicating a potential for continued strength.
• The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates today, with markets anticipating a 25 basis point reduction.
• US markets held a wait-and-see attitude, with the Dow ending at a new high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined slightly.
• ADRs dropped, contributing to a decline in the HSI.

Sector Performance

Top Performing Sectors (1D % Change)

• Durable Consumables: 3.0%
• Steel: 2.1%
• Sports accessories: 1.5%
• Infrastructure: 1.3%
• Chinese Insurers: 1.3%
• Toll Road: 0.9%
• Building Materials: 0.8%
• Coal: 0.8%
• Dairy: 0.8%
• Chinese Banks: 0.8%

Key Stocks in Top Performing Sectors

• Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
• Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
• Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xstep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)
• Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
• Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318)
• Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)
• Building Materials: Shanshui Cement (691), Anhui Conch (914), China Res Cement (1313), BBMG (2009), CNBM (3323)
• Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
• Dairy: Biostime (1112), CH Modern (1117), YST Dairy (1431), Mengniu (2319), Huishan Dairy (6863)
• Chinese Banks: CCB (939), ABC (1288), ICBC (1398), BankComm (3328), BOC (3988)
• REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
• Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)

Stock in Focus: Regina Miracle (2199.HK)

• Last Close: HK$8.37
• Entry: HK$8.35
• Target: HK$9.60
• Stop-loss: HK$7.76
• YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: -25.9%/-15.3%/-30.0%/N/A
• Market Cap: HK$10.25bn
• 3M Average Daily Volume: 2.04mn shares
• FY1 Forward P/E: 16.9x

Regina Miracle International is a leading global intimate wear company, using an IDM model to innovate in design and functionality. It has seen revenue and gross profit growth, and its share price is currently oversold, presenting a buy-the-dip opportunity.

Today's Top Picks

1. Huge China (428.HK)

   • Price: HK$2.57
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$2.82
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$2.41
   • Reason: Strong rally with increasing turnover, may place a small bet for rebound.

2. China Inno Fin (412.HK)

   • Price: HK$0.78
   • Purchase Price: Current
   • Target Price: HK$0.86
   • Stop-loss Price: HK$0.72
   • Reason: Share price showed support on 10-day MA, expected to rise further after correction.

Valuation Metrics of Major Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): FY16E P/E 11.8x, Long-term average 11.0x, Deviation from average 7.8%
• HSCEI: FY16E P/E 7.6x, Long-term average 7.9x, Deviation from average -3.6%
• Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E 14.1x, Long-term average 10.7x, Deviation from average 30.8%
• S&P 500: FY16E P/E 18.3x, Long-term average 15.3x, Deviation from average 19.7%

External Market Conditions

• Interest Rates: U.S. 2-year Treasury yield at 0.6611%, 10-year at 1.4641%, 30-year at 2.1645%
• Exchange Rates: USD/HKD at 7.7562, EUR/USD at 1.1097, USD/JPY at 104.16
• Precious Metals & Commodities:
  • Comex Gold: $1,346.2, down 1.2%
  • Comex Silver: $20.48, up 3.2%
  • Nymex WTI Crude: $45.17, down 0.1%
  • ICE Brent Crude: $46.64, down 0.5%
  • LME Copper: $4,938.00, up 4.0%
  • LME Aluminum: $1,673.00, up 1.2%

A-share Premium to H-share

• Key Companies:
  • LUOYANG GLASS-H: A-share premium 590.6%
  • MAANSHAN IRON-H: A-share premium 58.3%
  • YANZHOU COAL-H: A-share premium 185.9%
  • CHINA LIFE-H: A-share premium 47.5%
  • CHINA COSCO HO-H: A-share premium 121.0%
  • BEIJING NORTH-H: A-share premium 107.7%
  • CHINA SOUTHERN-H: A-share premium 110.5%
  • SHANGHAI PHARM-H: A-share premium 96.3%

Market Data and Turnover

• Best Performers:

  • BOYAA INTERACTIV (434.HK): 11.8% 1D change
  • XINCHEN CHINA PO (1148.HK): 10.7% 1D change
  • CHINA TRAVEL HK (308.HK): 7.4% 1D change
  • CHINA COAL ENE-H (1898.HK): 7.3% 1D change
  • HILONG HOLDING (1623.HK): 6.8% 1D change

• Worst Performers:

  • ZALL GROUP LTD (2098.HK): -5.2% 1D change
  • HUANENG RENEWA-H (958.HK): -4.5% 1D change
  • MMG (1208.HK): -3.9% 1D change
  • XINYI SOLAR HLDS (968.HK): -3.1% 1D change
  • CITIC RESOURCES (1205.HK): -2.5% 1D change

• HSCI Volume Filter:

  • China Oil and Gas (603.HK): 1.7% 1D change, 578.4% volume increase
  • Forgame Holdings (484.HK): -2.2% 1D change, 562.2% volume increase
  • Shougang Intl Eng (697.HK): 3.4% 1D change, 515.5% volume increase
  • China Everbr Int (257.HK): 1.9% 1D change, 398.8% volume increase
  • Shanghai Pechem (338.HK): 0.6% 1D change, 297.3% volume increase

• Most Short Sold Stocks:

  • ESPRIT HLDGS (330.HK): -1.5% 1D change, 0.1% of total short sell turnover
  • SWIRE PACIFIC-A (19.HK): 1.5% 1D change, 8% of total short sell turnover
  • YUEXIU TRANSPORT (1052.HK): 1.2% 1D change, 0.1% of total short sell turnover
  • LI & FUNG LTD (494.HK): 4.6% 1D change, 4.8% of own turnover
  • LIFESTYLE INTL (1212.HK): -1.0% 1D change, 46.9% of own turnover
  • TSINGTAO BREW-H (168.HK): 2.9% 1D change, 45.6% of own turnover
  • NANJING PANDA-H (553.HK): 6.06% 1D change, 214.1% A-share premium
  • CHINA RAIL GR-H (390.HK): 4.75% 1D change, 43.3% A-share premium
  • CHINA LIFE-H (2628.HK): 17.04% 1D change, 47.5% A-share premium
  • CHINA COAL ENE-H (1898.HK): 4.53% 1D change, 47.2% A-share premium

Key Economic Indicators and Events

• Bank of England is set to decide on an interest rate cut to address the UK recession.
• Crude oil stock piles in the US declined less than expected, leading to a drop in oil prices.
• Gold futures rose slightly, while oil futures fell.
• Result Calendar includes key results announcements for various companies, which investors can refer to for further details.

Summary

The Hong Kong and global markets show mixed performance, with the HSI and HSCEI slightly up, while the Nasdaq Composite fell. The Bank of England's potential interest rate cut and US market wait-and-see attitude are key factors influencing the market. Regina Miracle (2199.HK) is highlighted as a stock with a strong upside potential due to its IDM model and recent performance. The best and worst performers are listed, with the HSI showing a slight decline in turnover. The A-share premium to H-share indicates strong demand for mainland Chinese stocks. Overall, the market remains cautious, with some sectors showing positive trends and others facing challenges.