20160531-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, focusing on stock indices, market trends, sector performance, company-specific analysis, and macroeconomic indicators. It also includes a list of top picks for the day and information on short-selling and A-share premiums.

Main Market Indices

Index	Close	Daily Change (%)	YTD Change (%)
Hang Seng Index	20,629	+0.3	-5.9
HSCEI	8,625	+0.3	-10.7
Shanghai Comp	2,822	0.0	-20.3
Shenzhen Comp	1,799	-0.5	-22.1

Market Trends and Performance

Hong Kong stocks may lack direction due to the US Memorial Day holiday, with the HSI expected to consolidate around the 50-day MA (~20,565).
Macau's economy contracted by 13.3% YoY in Q1 2016, primarily due to declining investment and service exports. However, the gambling sector is expected to rebound in summer.
Macau gaming stocks (e.g., Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment) showed strength in a flat market.
Tingyi (322.HK) dropped 5.3% due to disappointing Q1 results.

Market Up/Down Ratios

The market up/down ratio for the past seven trading days reflects the proportion of rising and falling stocks.
About 1,700 listed companies on the mainboard (excluding GEM, ETFs, and suspended stocks) are included in the analysis.

Result Calendar

The following are key results dates for various companies:

Date	Stock Name	Stock Code	Type	Period
3/6/2016	SE ASIA PPT	252	FIN RES/DIV	Y.E.31/03/16
3/6/2016	TOP SPRING	3688	RESULTS	3-MTH-ENDDED31/03/16
7/6/2016	CHINA MOTOR BUS	26	2ND INT DIV	Y.E.30/06/16
7/6/2016	CHOW TAI FOOK	1929	FIN RES/DIV	Y.E.31/03/16
8/6/2016	LINK REIT	823	FIN RES/DIST	Y.E.31/03/16
20/06/2016	KTL INT'L	442	FIN RES/DIV	Y.E.31/03/16
23/06/2016	STELUX HOLDINGS	84	FIN RES	Y.E.31/03/16
24/06/2016	EAGLE NICE	2368	FIN RES/DIV	Y.E.31/03/16
27/06/2016	LEE KEE	637	FIN RES/DIV	Y.E.31/03/16
29/06/2016	MODERN BEAUTY	919	FIN RES/DIV	Y.E.31/03/16
16/08/2016	HAECO	44	INT RES/1ST INT DIV	6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
17/08/2016	CATHAY PAC AIR	293	INT RES/1ST INT DIV	6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
18/08/2016	SWIRE PACIFIC A	19	INT RES/1ST INT DIV	6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16
18/08/2016	SWIREPROPERTIES	1972	INT RES/1ST INT DIV	6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/16

Stock in Focus: AAC Technologies (2018.HK)

Last Close: HK$62.60
Entry: HK$59.00
Target: HK$71.10
Stop-loss: HK$53.20
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: 23.8%/16.0%/16.0%/44.4%
Market Cap: HK$76.87bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 3.43mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 17.2
Performance: The stock reached the target price, showing strong growth.
Reason for Buy: Upbeat Q1 results, business transformation, and potential for growth in non-acoustic segments.
Expectation: The stock is expected to break higher in H2 due to increased capacity and potential new smartphone models from major clients.

Today's Top Picks

China Wah Yan Health (648)
- Price: HK$0.099
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.109
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.094
- Reason: Strong share price rally and increasing turnover.
IE China (8081)
- Price: HK$0.134
- Purchase Price: Current
- Target Price: HK$0.147
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.121
- Reason: Price bottomed out and rebounded.

Sector Performance

Top Performing Sectors (1D % Change)

Sector	1D % Change	5D % Change	1M % Change
IPP	4.4%	0.7%	-5.3%
Handset and related accessories	3.5%	5.6%	3.3%
HK Consumer Group	3.1%	4.9%	1.0%
Gaming	2.7%	7.0%	0.6%
Telecoms Equipment	2.2%	2.5%	-2.6%
Gas	1.6%	3.1%	-1.7%
Brokerages	1.2%	4.2%	-5.9%
Automobile	1.1%	4.4%	-2.7%
Technology	1.0%	5.7%	-1.9%
Local Property	0.8%	3.4%	-3.7%
Environmental and New Energy	0.8%	2.7%	-1.5%
Chinese Insurers	0.8%	3.6%	-4.0%
Chinese Property	0.7%	2.6%	-5.6%
Local Banks	0.7%	1.7%	-0.3%
Toll Road	0.5%	1.4%	-2.7%

Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors

IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
HK Consumer Group: Sa Sa Int'l (178), Cafe De Coral (341), Luk Fook (590), Bonjour (653), I.T (999)
Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
Gas: China Gas (384), Beijing Enterprises (392), ENN Energy (2688), CIMC Enric (3899), China Res Gas (1193)
Brokerages: First Shanghai (227), Central China Sec. (1375), CITIC Sec. (6030), Haitong Sec. (6837), China Galaxy Sec. (6881)
Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
Toll Road: Sichuan Express (107), Jiangsu Express (177), Shenzhen Express (548), Zhejiang Express (576), Anhui Expressway (995)

Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

Index	FY16E P/E	Long-term Avg. Fwd. P/E	Deviation from Avg. (%)	FY1 EPS Growth (%)	FY2 EPS Growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	11.3	10.9	+3.1	-8.3	+10.3
HSCEI	7.2	7.8	-8.4	-5.9	+9.2
Shanghai Comp	12.9	10.9	+18.9	+20.4	+13.3
S&P 500	17.9	15.4	+15.9	+8.7	+13.5

Market Data

Best and Worst Performers (1D % Change)

Best:

AAC Technologies (2018.HK): +6.1%
MELCO INTL DEV (200.HK): +5.8%
HUADIAN POWER-H (1071.HK): +5.8%
TRULY INTL HLDGS (732.HK): +5.4%
HI SUN TECHNOLOG (818.HK): +5.4%

Worst:

DIGITAL CHINA (861.HK): -5.5%
TINGYI (322.HK): -5.3%
CHINA PRECIOUS M (1194.HK): -5.0%
MICROPORT SCIENT (853.HK): -4.4%
ZHAOJIN MINING-H (564.HK): -4.3%

HSCI Volume Filter

Company	Stock Code	Price (HK$)	1D % Change	Avg. Vol (m shares)	Prev. Vol (m shares)	% Increase	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E
CHINA SHINEWAY	2877.HK	8.230	0.2	0.5	2.2	348.9	8.5	8.5
CHINA MERCHANTS	978.HK	1.120	-2.6	1.9	6.1	224.0	5.4	4.3
MAN WAH HOLDINGS	1999.HK	10.620	2.9	2.4	7.1	189.8	14.0	12.5
TRULY INTL HLDGS	732.HK	3.300	5.4	11.3	30.9	173.4	10.6	9.9
NWS HOLDINGS	659.HK	12.320	-0.3	1.1	0.2	168.7	11.3	10.7

Most Short Sold Stocks

Company	Stock Code	Price (HK$)	1D % Change	Shortsell Turnover (HK$m)	% of Total Shortsell Turnover	% of Own Turnover	FY1 P/E	FY2 P/E
DAPHNEINTERNATI	210.HK	1.210	-1.6	0.3	0.0	1156.9	N/A	N/A
SANYHEAVY EQUIP	631.HK	1.530	-1.9	0.1	0.0	191.5	24.9	19.6
CONSUNPHARMACEU	1681.HK	3.990	-0.7	0.3	0.0	149.9	10.7	9.1
APT SATELLITEHL	1045.HK	5.760	0.3	0.1	0.0	98.7	9.0	7.6
SUNART RETAIL	6808.HK	4.880	0.4	17.5	0.2	81.4	16.3	15.8

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

Interest Rates

Rate	Latest (%)	5D Change (bps)	1M Change (bps)	YTD Change (bps)	y-y % Change
U.S. 2-year Treas.	0.9303	2.09	14.87	-11.74	32.50
U.S. 10-year Treas.	1.8563	-0.66	2.30	-41.31	-26.51
U.S. 30-year Treas.	2.6448	0.08	-3.33	-37.10	-23.70
HK 1-month HIBOR	0.2091	1.13	-1.80	-1.20	-3.27
HK 3-month HIBOR	0.5345	2.18	-1.09	14.09	14.49
SH 1-month HIBOR	2.8460	0.40	-0.70	-15.60	57.00
SH 3-month HIBOR	2.9455	0.70	3.75	-13.97	8.15

Exchange Rates

Rate	Latest	5D % Change	1M % Change	YTD % Change	y-y % Change
USD Dollar Index	95.5830	0.0	2.7	-3.1	-1.4
USD/HKD	7.7690	0.0	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2
EUR/USD	1.1151	0.1	-3.3	2.7	2.1
USD/JPY	110.82	-0.7	-4.0	8.3	12.6
GBP/USD	1.4656	0.1	-0.1	-0.5	-3.6
USD/CHF	0.9914	0.2	-3.7	1.1	-4.6
AUD/USD	0.7197	0.2	-6.1	-1.2	-5.4
NZD/USD	0.6713	-0.4	-4.4	-1.8	-5.3
USD/CAD	1.3038	0.7	-3.9	6.1	-4.0
USD/CNY	6.5818	-0.4	-1.6	-1.3	-5.8
USD/CNH	6.5874	-0.3	-1.6	-0.3	-5.8

Precious Metals and Commodities

Commodity	Latest	5D % Change	1M % Change	YTD % Change	y-y % Change
CRB Index	186.1	1.0	0.8	5.7	-16.6
Comex Gold	1,211.5	-3.2	-6.1	14.3	1.9
Comex Silver	16.095	-2.0	-9.5	16.6	-3.6
Nymex WTI Crude	49.55	3.1	7.9	33.8	-17.8
ICE Brent Crude	49.77	2.4	3.4	33.5	-24.1
LME Copper	4,695.00	2.9	-7.0	-0.2	-21.9
LME Aluminum	1,556.00	0.1	-7.3	3.3	-10.6
CBT Wheat	481.00	4.1	0.6	2.3	0.8
CBT Corn	412.00	3.6	5.6	14.8	17.2
CBT Soybean	1090.50	3.0	6.8	25.2	16.8

A-share Premium to H-share

Company	H Share Code	Price (HK$)	A Share Code	Price (RMB)	A-share Premium to H-share (%)
LUOYANG GLASS-H	1108	4.24	600876	25.34	605.5
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H	1057	7.54	002703	24.48	283.2
BBMG CORP-H	2009	2.41	601992	7.75	279.6
JINGCHENG MAC-H	187	3.05	600860	8.47	227.8
CHINA VANKE-H	2202	18.18	000002	24.43	58.6
CHINA SHENHUA-H	1088	12.32	601088	13.60	30.3
SINOPEC SHANG-H	338	3.78	600688	5.99	87.1
PING AN-H	2318	33.90	601318	31.91	11.1
NEW CHINA LIFE-H	1336	26.00	601336	39.78	80.6
SHANDONG CHEN-H	1812	5.39	000488	7.94	73.9
GF SECURITIES-H	1776	17.16	000776	15.35	5.6
CHINA SOUTHERN-H	1055	4.53	600029	6.49	85.0
CITIC SEC-H	6030	16.40	600030	15.67	12.8

Key Information Summary

Market Trends: Hong Kong stocks may consolidate due to US market closure, with a focus on potential rebounds in Macau's gaming sector.
Stock Focus: AAC Technologies is a top pick with a strong upward trajectory and positive outlook.
Sector Performance: Various sectors showed mixed performance, with IPP and gaming leading the pack.
Valuations: Hang Seng Index and HSCEI are at slightly above average valuations.
Short Selling: Certain stocks, like DAPHNEINTERNATI and SANYHEAVY EQUIP, are heavily short sold.
Exchange Rates: USD/HKD and USD/CNY showed slight declines.
Commodities: Crude oil and copper prices showed some upward movement.
A-share Premium: There is a significant premium in A-shares compared to H-shares, indicating potential for A-share investment.