2025-05-13-WTW-全球养老金金融观察——2025年第一季度（英）_13页_961kb

Global Pension Finance Watch – First Quarter 2025 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Global Pension Finance Watch – First Quarter 2025 report provides an analysis of pension plan performance across major global retirement markets. It highlights the impact of investment returns and discount rate movements on the funded status of defined benefit pension plans. The report uses a benchmark pension plan to represent typical asset and liability structures in each region, with the WTW Pension Index measuring the ratio of the market value of assets to the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO).

Key Findings

Regional Pension Index Performance

• Eurozone: Strongest improvement with a 7.0% increase in the index, driven by rising discount rates and positive equity returns.
• Switzerland: Solid gain of 3.9%, with a significant reduction in liabilities.
• U.K.: 3.6% increase, supported by a rise in discount rates and lower liabilities.
• Brazil: 2.0% increase, with a modest liability growth.
• Canada: 0.9% increase, due to a combination of asset growth and reduced liabilities.
• U.S.: Largest decline of -3.3%, caused by falling discount rates and increased liabilities.

Investment Returns (Q1 2025)

Discount Rate Movements

• Discount rates increased in all regions except Brazil and the U.S.
• The RATE:Link methodology was used for discount rates in most countries, with adjustments made for inflation and liquidity in Brazil.
• Benchmark discount rates for each region are based on high-quality corporate bond yields.

Liability Growth Factor (Q1 2025)

Key Drivers of Index Changes

• Asset performance and liability changes (discount rate and interest accumulation) were the primary factors influencing the pension index.
• In the Eurozone, a 36 basis point increase in the discount rate led to a 4.7% decrease in liabilities, contributing to a 7.0% index increase.
• In Switzerland, a 33 basis point increase in the discount rate reduced liabilities by 4.3%, leading to a 3.9% index increase.
• In the U.S., a 10 basis point decrease in the discount rate increased liabilities by 2.6%, resulting in a -3.3% index decline.

Monitoring and Risk Management

• Organizations that monitor their pension plans in real-time and tailor strategies to their specific plan characteristics are better equipped to manage pension risk.
• WTW supports daily monitoring of funded status and other pension metrics through the Cost and Risk Management Channel.

Broader Risk Management Characteristics

• Successful multinational pension risk management involves:
  • Understanding complex pension risks and available levers.
  • Establishing a clear tolerable risk strategy.
  • Employing a systematic, multi-local approach.
  • Monitoring financial markets, legislation, and trends.

Currency and Reporting Considerations

• All results are presented in local currency.
• Currency fluctuations can significantly impact asset and liability measurements, depending on the company’s reporting currency and global asset allocation.
• Exchange rates (currency per US$1) for key regions are provided in the report.

Regulatory and Methodological Notes

• The report is based on international accounting standards (e.g., ASC 715, IAS 19, etc.).
• Local regulatory requirements may differ in asset and liability measurement approaches.
• Asset smoothing is allowed in some regions (e.g., ASC 715, CICA 3461), which spreads the effects of investment performance over multiple years.

Conclusion

The WTW Pension Index provides a benchmark for pension plan funded status across global markets. While some regions saw strong performance, the U.S. experienced the largest decline. Effective pension risk management requires continuous monitoring and tailored strategies, especially in light of market volatility and changing economic assumptions. WTW encourages organizations to use their daily monitoring tools and to refer to their Mastering DB Risks Globally article for more insights on global pension risk management techniques.