20241229-华联期货-液化气年报_OPEC+将面对更大的压力测试_42页_8mb

华联期货液化气年报：OPEC+将面对更大压力（20241229）

主要观点

商品特性
液化气作为重要油气碳氢化合物，与原油高度相关。其直接来源于油气田或炼厂石化加工环节，既是能源又是化工原料。然而，与原油的比价波动幅度可达2000元/吨，同时具有明显的季节性特征。淡季与旺季的价差同样高达2000元/吨。据此，市场判断应考虑两个维度：比价波动和季节性差异。基差波动剧烈，包括季节性变化（年头至8月基差走低）、地区差异化、以及期货与仓单合约间的400元/吨贴水。液化气现货市场并未构成完全竞争格局，存在垄断性特点，与其易燃危化属性及仓储运输难度有关。

定价基准
原油是液化气定价的核心基准。全球三大机构对2024年原油需求持悲观预期，OPEC大幅下调需求预测，全球贸易摩擦拖累经济，加之中国地产周期回落与电动化对“液体燃料”的显著替代，加剧了原油价格下行压力。若非OPEC+让出市场份额以应对非OPEC产国（如美国）的产量增长和全球需求削减，将使挺价动力持续减弱，引发油价震荡走势。自2025年起，OPEC+若开始取消减产，预计当年过剩产能将增至140万桶/日，该不确定性对原油构成利空影响。

供应端分析
液化气供应主要受原油产量增幅驱动，特别是美国页岩油副产气增速显著，进一步放大了供应弹性。据预测，2025年全球液化气供应将保持高增长态势，美国码头设施投产计划（年增出口能力约10%）预计将增加市场供应，加剧内外价差倒挂，导致进口长期亏损。预计我国2024年进口将增长10%至3500万吨，美国作为我国液化气第一大进口来源国（占比超50%），其资源体量庞大，且贸易冲突可能干扰其供应，推高成本。中东增产同样会增加全球市场供应。

需求端展望
2024年，中国化工需求持续高增长，尤其PDH产能新增425万吨，总产能达2152万吨，增幅25%，但利润不佳导致开工率低迷，预计2025年产能扩张速度放缓。汽油添加需求随新能源汽车渗透率上升将持续减弱，预计到2024年底新能源汽车保有量将突破3000万辆，其中纯电占比80%，乘用车单月渗透率超过50%，显著降低汽油消费弹性。家用和商用燃烧需求预计平稳略降，而餐饮需求虽有短暂复苏，容量占比却从2022年的43%降至2023年的36%，已成趋势性下降。

策略建议
综合成本端承压与需求端放缓，液化气价格维持偏空判断。操作建议参考区间4000~5000元/吨，规避风险点包括贸易战引发的供应中断、原油波动及宏观面调整。潜在机会关注PDH利润逢高空机会，鉴于不少装置尚未达产，潜在产能置换存在预期空间。

市场价格回顾与要素
2024年液化气期货总体运行平淡，多数月份表现弱于原油多头行情，主要引因是美国原油产量的提升和OPEC+市场份额的下降。3-4月和9-10月的两轮结构性月差变化，曾使期价偏离幅度较大。期间，巴拿马运河瓶颈效应一度压制基差水平，并在后续予以消除，形成“V”字型小周期。US原油库存降至历史低位，同时页岩油产量见顶，OPEC+承诺延产稳价，美国、中国需求亦呈现恢复迹象，构成短期利多支撑。

库存动态
中国液化气整体维持去库态势，港口库容率与炼厂罐容率处于多年低位，而加气站库容则介于正常范围。现货库容率的逐年走低，反映出市场供需格局变化。同时，美湾出口能力的潜在增长以及国内外成品油替代趋势，是市场面临的主要关注点。

Brokerage View on LPG: OPEC Facing Stricter Stress Test

Product Features

LPG stands as an integral part of the oil and gas sector, with close ties to crude oil both in terms of source—either directly from oil fields or as a byproduct of refining—and in function, serving both energy and chemical feedstock purposes. Notably, LPG exhibits higher volatilities against crude oil, sometimes reaching up to CNY 2000 per ton, and shows marked seasonality. There appears to be a two-fold disparity to consider: fluctuation amplitude and seasonal differences. Furthermore, substantial basis (the differential between spot and futures) variation exists, influenced by season, regional disparities, high volatility, and significant backwardation (around CNY 400/ton) for near-term cargoes relative to next-month contracts. These factors suggest that the LPG physical market is not perfectly competitive. This may relate to the product’s hazardous nature and the challenges in storage and transportation infrastructure.

Pricing Benchmark

Crude Oil remains the anchor for LPG prices. Forecasts from major institutions predict a bearish outlook for 2024 global oil demand, with OPEC significantly downgrading consumption forecasts. Trade wars cloud the economic outlook, China faces a slowing property cycle, and electrification poses a clear threat to liquid fuel usage. With Non-OPEC production on the rise and global demand under pressure, OPEC+ faces increasing market share challenges, potentially leading to a decline in their pricing power, suggesting a bearish trend for oil prices. If OPEC+, as reported by IEA, genuinely withdraws its voluntary cuts by late 2025, spare capacity could increase to 1.4 mb/d that year, feeding downward pressure.

Supply Overview

LPG supply is closely tied to crude output. Global production is expected to climb by 630 kb/d in 2024 and further by 1.9 mb/d in 2025, driven mainly by Libya, Kazakhstan, and Non-OPEC players, particularly the US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina. If OPEC+ allows more market share to slip, inventories could swell. The US keeps production high, and the upcoming change in administration may even fuel further growth. China’s crude demand for 2024 shows signs of slowdown, with lower crude imports in the first ten months of the year, falling gasoline and diesel output expected. Despite this, OPEC continues to lower its demand growth forecast for both 2024 and 2025, signaling a persistent bearish outlook for the medium term. At the same time, IEA anticipates a pickup in demand growth due to higher demand for petrochemical feedstocks.

Inventory and Logistics

US crude inventories are tracking lower, reinforcing a positive sentiment. The world's top producers (OPEC+) might extend production cuts to stabilize prices, aided by potential supply declines elsewhere, supporting the price. Concerning LPG, inventories (port and factory) in China are mixed, with low overall levels offset by the potential for shipping price increases reflecting supply/demand imbalances.

Demand Trends

2024 sees significant PDH capacity growth (42.5 mt, up 25% YoY, totaling ~21.5 mt capacity), though marginal profit forces utilization down. The traditional gasoline blending demand application continues to decline due to vehicle electrification, the trend now gathering pace as EVs make up a larger share of the fleet, estimated to reach 13%+ by 2025. Residential and commercial combustion demand faces headwinds from alternative energy use (natural gas, electricity) and fluctuating consumer confidence. Overall blending-related use (MTBE, Alkylate) remains strained by low margins despite new plants coming online.

Trading Strategy

Balancing a cost side that appears compressed due to inventory/ease of arbitrage against a demand side facing significant slowdown (chemicals lagging, combustion stable but capped), a cautious bearish view is presented. The potential operational range of 5000-4000 CNY/ton is proposed. Psychological comfort may be found in shorter-dated contracts, while medium-term strength could provide defensiveness for longer-dated paper. Opportunities might arise from technical situations or surplus capacity within PDH complexes where OPEC+ ambitions are tested.

2024 Market Review

LPG spot prices excluding exchange rates were relatively contained in volatility in 2024, yet remained below breakeven levels versus Brent crude most of the year, reflecting significantly depressed inventories earlier in the year. As the summer moved into season, typical weak forward curve positions failed to translate into price strength, leaving the market pessismistic. The ‘Gas to Oil’ ratio (Gas priced at GuangShan vs Brent) was historically weak, pointing towards oversupply or underpricing.

Basis Movement

The basis dollar spread followed the typical seasonal cycle, rising significantly after the summer lull. This suggests that physical import demand, areas with pricing uncertainty, and other elements kept a lid on lower quality cargoes versus standard contracts. 库容率 holds strategic importance in the industry, determined by current stock levels and delivery capacity.

Structural Demand Impact

China’s LPG combustion demand (mainly residential and commercial heating/cooking) mirrored participation patterns, pulled down by cleaner/faster alternatives. Growth in blending applications was captured differently, hampered by high ethylene costs affecting PDH resurgence unless margins stabilize. The overall mix of domestic versus imported supply weighs heavily on local inventories.

Conclusion / Outlook

The analysis underscores sustained challenges for the Chinese LPG complex, involving not just price pressure but also the need to manage sharply rising inventory levels and shifting end-use preferences affecting chemical demand. OPEC+ face a path to higher supply growth from multiple directions, complicating efforts to maintain oil prices at elevated peaks beyond the short term.

Risk Factors

Trade war escalation affecting specific export flows; broader crude oil price movements, and macroeconomic instability affecting global industrial activity.

****Disclaimer: All views are based on available information and do not constitute personal operational recommendations. Market participants should form their own judgment based on further research.****