20250706-光大期货-棉花策略周报_40页_1mb

Cotton Market Analysis Summary - July 6, 2025

Supply Side

Cotton production is expected to be robust for the 2025/26 season, driven by higher planting areas in the US and China, with US real sown area up 2.6% and China's yield projected 2.8%. Global production may exceed current estimates despite USDA's downward revision, with Brazil setting new records and Australia potentially cutting output, but India's production is also subdued. Weather conditions, including droughts, could affect US yields. Inflation data showed 0.15% price increase, yet inventories are low at 312.69万吨 by June, reflecting a 33.18-wan
to decrease.

Demand Side

Demand remains limited, with domestic retail data in May showing 4% growth in clothing and textiles, but lower than overall consumer goods trends (+6.4%). Textile mills operate at low capacity, e.g., 52.2% yarn load, indicating weak demand in the off-season. Global consumption forecasts are downwardly revised due to economic slowdown and uncertainties, with China's consumption declining relative to its vast output.

Inventories

Commercial inventories are at near-record lows, down 34.28-5, but cotton mill inventories increased slightly, indicating backlogs in downstream products. Exports are mixed, with declines in纺服 and increases elsewhere, affecting supply-demand balance.

Prices

Prices show variability;郑棉期价 reached 13,780.00元/吨, up 0.15%,
but short-term trends are range-bound. The cost gap between imported
and domestic cotton narrowed, with 9-1价差 at lows, suggesting limited
profit opportunities for imports.

Outlook

The market faces capped upside due to
strong supply and weak demand. Fed policy movements are closely watched—July rate hold expected, with potential cut in September. In China, supply excess may drive better 09 contract performance vs. 01. Key risks include weather disruptions in Xinjiang and ongoing trade tariffs.

Key Metrics

• Global cotton production estimated at 2,547.2万吨 for 2025/26, with consumption at 2,564.0万吨.
• Inventory-to-sales ratios are elevated globally.
• Yarn and fabric loads are subdued,
  e.g., 52.2% yarn load, showing improving or declining metrics.

This summary captures the core elements of the report, emphasizing balanced supply-demand dynamics and cautious price outlook.