20230501-浙商证券-原料药及仿制药2022_2023Q1总结_上游降本_下游提效_25页_2mb

报告摘要

Stock Price Review: From 2022 onwards, generic drugs outperformed other sectors, with cumulative excess returns: generic drugs (20%) > API companies (-22%) > pharma equipment & instruments (-137%). Factors included demand recovery in in-hospital formulations and innovation upgrades.
Upstream-Downstream Comparison: Upstream firms show robust growth and cost advantages, while downstream segments see sustained profits from formulation improvements. CDMO companies with capacity expansion are highlighted, with firms like Protopos Pharmaceutical entering output phases.
Raw Material Drugs: Expect a profitability turnaround in 2023H2 due to cost reductions; companies with high domestic revenue may benefit more. Investment recommendation includes Protopos Pharmaceutical, Xuanwu Pharmaceutical for growth elasticity, and CDMO-focused firms like Byrx Pharmaceutical.
Generic Drugs: Post-sequestration growth continues, with reduced impacts on key products. New product approvals and internationalization are drivers; recommended companies include Xuanwu Pharmaceutical, Kollen Pharmaceutical, East China Pharmaceutical, and Pru Pharmaceutical.
Investment Suggestions and Risks: Suggested companies for high-quality growth include Protopos Pharmaceutical, Xuanwu Pharmaceutical, and Kollen Pharmaceutical. Key risks involve production accidents, pricing volatility, exchange rate fluctuations, and clinical trial uncertainties.