CASE-欧盟28国成员国的增值税差距研究与报告：2020年最终报告（英文）-2020.10-110页_2mb

Summary of the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2020 Final Report

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union (TAXUD), presents a comprehensive analysis of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap in the EU-28 for the year 2018, along with fast estimates for 2019 and projections for 2020. The study was conducted by a team from CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research, led by Grzegorz Poniatowski, with coordination by Roberto Zavatta.

The VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) and the actual VAT revenue collected. It encompasses not only tax fraud and evasion but also other forms of non-compliance such as administrative errors, legal tax optimisation, and insolvencies.

Main Findings

2018 VAT Gap Overview

• EU-wide VAT Gap: In 2018, the VAT Gap decreased to 11% of the VTTL and EUR 140 billion in absolute terms.
• VAT Revenue Growth: VAT revenue increased by 4.2%, while the VTTL increased by 3.6%.
• Country-Level Gaps:
  • Smallest Gaps: Sweden (0.7%), Croatia (3.5%), and Finland (3.6%).
  • Largest Gaps: Romania (33.8%), Greece (30.1%), and Lithuania (25.9%).
  • Half of EU-28: Recorded a VAT Gap above 9.2%.
• Nominal VAT Gap:
  • Italy: EUR 35.4 billion
  • United Kingdom: EUR 23.5 billion
  • Germany: EUR 22 billion

Factors Influencing the VAT Gap

• Economic Conditions: Moderate GDP growth and stable government budgets contributed to a favorable environment for tax compliance.
• Compliance Ratio: The compliance ratio increased, reflecting improved tax collection.
• VAT Base Growth: The main driver of VAT revenue growth was the increase in the tax base, which accounted for 78% of the total growth in the EU.
• Compliance Effect: Increased compliance contributed 10% to the growth of VAT revenue, which equates to 0.4% of the overall VAT revenue.

Policy Gap Analysis

• Policy Gap: The average Policy Gap for the EU was 44.24%.
• Components of Policy Gap:
  • Rate Gap: 10.07 percentage points.
  • Exemption Gap: 34.17 percentage points.
• Country-Specific Contributions:
  • In five countries (Hungary, Romania, Latvia, Malta, and Poland), the combined effect of base growth and compliance exceeded 10% of VAT revenue.

Key Policy and Methodological Notes

• VAT Regime Changes:
  • In 2018, only Latvia introduced a significant change in its VAT rate structure, implementing a super-reduced rate of 5% on common vegetables and fruits.
  • Other changes included reclassifications of certain products under reduced rates, such as in Lithuania and Romania.
  • The MOSS retention fee remained at 15%.
• Effective Rate: The average effective VAT rate across the EU-28 remained 12%, consistent with 2017.
• Decomposition of VAT Revenue:
  • Actual VAT revenue can be decomposed into three components: change in the net taxable base, change in the effective rate, and change in compliance.
  • The methodology relies heavily on Supply and Use Tables (SUT), which vary in quality across Member States.

Econometric Analysis

• The study includes an updated econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants.
• Key Variables:
  • GDP growth
  • General government balance
  • Share of IT expenditure
• Results:
  • GDP growth and general government balance were found to explain a significant portion of the VAT Gap variation across time and countries.
  • IT expenditure was the most statistically significant factor in explaining the size of the VAT Gap.
  • The VAT Gap was also found to be inter-related with risky imports, indicating the role of fraud in the overall VAT Gap.

Impact of the Coronavirus Recession

• The report forecasts that the VAT Gap will increase in 2020 due to the coronavirus recession.
• If the EU economy contracts by 7.4% in 2020 and the general government deficit increases as predicted, the VAT Gap could rise by 4.1 percentage points, reaching 13.7% and EUR 164 billion.
• The increase in 2020 is expected to be more pronounced than the previous three-year decline in the VAT Gap.
• A return to 2018 VAT Gap levels will require significant action from tax administrations.

Methodological Considerations

• Data Sources: The study uses national accounts data, SUT, and VAT statistics.
• Fast Estimates: These are derived using a simplified methodology and are used for 2019.
• Policy Gap Derivation: The Policy Gap is calculated based on the theoretical revenue lost due to reduced and super-reduced rates and exemptions without the right to deduct.
• Robustness Check: The econometric model was tested for robustness to ensure reliability of the results.

Conclusion

This report provides a detailed and updated analysis of the VAT Gap in the EU-28, highlighting both the decline in the VAT Gap in 2018 and the potential for a significant increase in 2020 due to the coronavirus recession. The study underscores the importance of compliance, economic conditions, and tax administration measures in shaping the VAT Gap, and provides a foundation for future policy development and monitoring.