2021-12-12-瑞士信贷集团-泰国市场策略之2022年展望_泰铢看起来比股票要好_78页_1mb

Thai equity market analysis for 7 December 2021 highlights a cautious outlook for 2022 with a belief that the Baht could outperform local stocks. The report emphasizes that Thai equities are expensive on most metrics, while the Baht is seen as promising due to potential tourism revival and oil price declines. Key recommendations include favoring banks, chemicals, consumer stocks (excluding tourism), and healthcare. The SET index target for 2022 is 1,690, offering a 4% upside, with additional currency gains possible for dollar investors if the scenarios materialize.

The macro outlook is uncertain, with tourism being a key swing factor. While domestic sectors like exports and chemicals benefit, the reliance on international tourism poses significant risks. Structural constraints include human capital challenges and potential hindrances to industrial growth from environmental policies on EVs. The report advises a Market Weight position in Thailand's equity allocation within an APAC portfolio.

For stock pick strategies, the SET index target is 1,690, yielding a 4% upside. If tourism recovers to 80% pre-pandemic levels and the P/E ratio remains stable, the target remains valid. For significant currency appreciation, an additional 5% upside may be realized for dollar investors based on tourism and oil price projections. The report advocates an Overweight stance on Thai banks, chemicals, consumer (excluding tourism), and healthcare sectors while maintaining a selective approach in tourism-related stocks.

Notable individual stock picks include Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.BK) and Kasikornbank (KBANK.BK) among banks; Indorama Ventures PCL (IVL.BK) and KCE Electronics (KCE.BK) in chemicals; and health-related stocks such as Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS.BK) and Chularat Hospital (CHG.BK). The exposure to positive recovery drivers and simulated scenarios supports these recommendations.

Thailand Market Strategy: The outlook for 2022 emphasizes leveraging robust global growth expectations and local economic improvement. Our cautionary stance is balanced by strategic overweights in sensitive sectors, with a strong belief in the Bank, Chemicals, Consumer (ex-tourism), and Healthcare (ex-BH) segments. A Market Weight position is maintained within an Asia Pacific portfolio, excluding Thailand from our Asia Pacific Equity Peer Group allocation as our sole non-Overweight Asia ex-Japan exposure.