2021-11-25-德国外交关系理事会-南高加索地区不断变化的地缘政治现实（英）_14页_4mb
报告摘要
- Azerbaijan's victory in the Second Karabakh War represents a new phase in the ongoing conflict with Armenia, keeping peace agreements distant due to unresolved issues.
- The fragile security situation hinders efforts to establish new connections and trade routes, despite geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus.
- Russia maintains troops through "peacekeeping forces," while Turkey increasingly contests Moscow's influence in the region's perceived sphere of interest.
- This regional realignment has weakened the EU, United States, and OSCE Minsk Group, as lack of EU mediation allowed other actors to reshape the dynamic, negatively impacting democratic reforms.
- Despite the need for re-engagement and EU strengthening, internal political reluctance among member states limits progress; conflicts benefit certain elites, reinforcing adversarial paradigms.
- External actors like Russia and Turkey view the conflict primarily through power politics, further complicating resolution pathways through non-political means.
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