德国外交关系理事会-COVID-19与欧洲防务（英文）-2020.10-19页_3mb

Summary of "COVID-19 AND EUROPEAN DEFENSE - VOICES FROM THE CAPITALS"

Core Content

This document explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on European defense and security cooperation, drawing insights from experts in key EU and NATO countries. It highlights how the pandemic has affected defense budgets, security environments, force structures, and multinational defense cooperation.

Main Views and Key Findings

Defense Budgets

• Stability and Growth: Most countries expect defense budgets to remain stable or grow in the short term, though long-term reductions are anticipated in some.
• Budget Constraints: Countries with high public debt face budgetary challenges, which may lead to cuts or reduced spending on defense in the future.
• Targeted Spending: Some countries are committed to meeting NATO or EU defense spending targets (e.g., 2% of GDP or 2.5% by 2030), even amid the economic crisis.

Security Environment

• Persistent Threats: The general perception of security threats remains focused on Russia and China, as well as terrorism and illegal migration.
• New Threats: The pandemic has accelerated some threats, such as hybrid warfare and great power competition, particularly between the USA and China.
• Pandemic as a Security Threat: The health sector and civil preparedness are increasingly viewed as part of the security environment, especially in health capabilities and resilience planning.

Force Structures

• Reforms and Modernization: Most countries are undertaking reforms and modernization of their armed forces, with no major disruptions due to the pandemic.
• Capacities and Capabilities: There is concern over the potential atrophy of capabilities if defense budgets are cut, especially in smaller countries like Estonia.
• Focus on Readiness: Resilience and capability development are emphasized, with some countries aiming for rapid modernization and increased troop numbers.

Multinational Defense Cooperation

• Challenges in Coordination: The pandemic has slowed down cooperation due to online meetings and logistical difficulties, which hinder trust-building and flexibility.
• Continuity in Projects: Despite challenges, many countries remain committed to multinational defense projects, though some may face cuts if budgets are reduced.
• Shift to Bilateral/Minilateral Frameworks: In some cases, bilateral or minilateral partnerships are seen as alternatives to multilateral cooperation, especially if multinational efforts lose momentum.

Country-Specific Insights

Czech Republic

• Defense budget remains stable, but cuts are anticipated.
• Russia and China remain key security concerns.
• Multinational cooperation is still important, though budget reductions could affect projects.

Estonia

• Defense budget may increase despite the pandemic.
• Multinational cooperation is crucial, especially in the Baltic region.
• Pandemic could indirectly affect procurement cycles and capability development.

Finland

• Defense budget is expected to grow.
• Pandemic has not altered the security environment.
• Multinational exercises have been canceled or postponed, affecting cooperation.

France

• No budget cuts expected in the short term.
• Long-term threats like great power competition and hybrid warfare are increasing.
• Reforms and procurement are accelerating to support the defense industry.

Greece

• Defense budget will increase, focusing on procurement.
• Turkey's assertiveness is a key driver of security policy.
• Pandemic may indirectly affect procurement timelines.

Hungary

• Defense budget is expected to grow.
• Security environment is deteriorating due to great power competition and rising tensions.
• Multinational cooperation is not directly affected, but budgetary constraints could influence future projects.

Lithuania

• Defense budget remains stable in 2021, with planned increases to meet the 2030 target.
• Russian ambitions and Chinese aspirations are key security concerns.
• Multinational projects are supported, but coordination is essential.

The Netherlands

• Defense budget will grow in 2021, but may decrease in 2022.
• Increased responsibility for security is expected.
• No immediate impact on defense cooperation or force structure.

Norway

• Uncertainty about long-term defense budget changes.
• Pandemic may reinforce existing trends, such as great power competition and pressure on multilateralism.
• Participation in EU/NATO projects may be affected by how the EU emerges from the crisis.

Poland

• Defense budget will grow in real terms until 2023, though slower than planned.
• Security policy is not significantly affected by the pandemic.
• No major changes to force structure or capabilities.

Romania

• No budget cuts are expected for the defense sector.
• Infodemic (disinformation) is a growing concern.
• PESCO projects are not expected to be affected in the short term.

Spain

• Defense budgets are stable, with minor delays in procurement.
• Health capabilities are emphasized as part of national defense.
• Multinational cooperation may slow down, potentially strengthening terrorist movements in the Sahel.

United Kingdom

• No immediate budget cuts expected.
• Pandemic has not affected defense cooperation with the continent.
• Mid- and long-term planning is still ongoing, with focus on resilience and prevention of future pandemics.

Conclusion

The pandemic has not fundamentally altered the direction of European defense policies, but it has introduced new challenges and uncertainties. While defense budgets are generally stable or increasing, long-term fiscal pressures may lead to cuts in the future. The security environment is still dominated by Russia and China, with new threats like hybrid warfare and great power competition becoming more pronounced. Multinational cooperation faces logistical and communication challenges, but many countries remain committed to it. Health and civil preparedness are now seen as integral to national security. Overall, the pandemic is acting as a catalyst for ongoing trends rather than a major reshaping of the security landscape.