20180612-凯基证券亚洲-Investment_Daily_5页_215kb

报告摘要

Market Summary

Core Market Indicators

Indicator	11 Jun	8 Jun	7 Jun
HSI	31,063	30,958	31,512
HSI Change	+105	-554	+254
Market Turnover (mn)	77,400	99,800	107,500
HSCEI	12,172	12,165	12,408
HSCEI Change	+6	-242	+124

Key Observations:

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 105 points to 31,063 on 11 June, indicating a slight upward trend.
The H-share index (HSCEI) increased by 6 points to 12,172, showing modest gains.
Market turnover decreased significantly to HK$77.4 billion, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
The HSI is expected to trade within the range of 30,900–31,300 in the short term due to conservative investment behavior ahead of major central bank rate decisions.

Technical Analysis

HSI Technical Indicators

10-day MA: 30,839
50-day MA: 30,602
250-day MA: 29,161
14-day RSI: 53.4
Primary Resistance: 31,593
Primary Support: 30,602

The HSI rebounded with a white candlestick above 31,000, but the reduced market momentum suggests consolidation. The MACD histogram remains positive but has narrowed, indicating potential for a price change. Initial support is at the 50-day moving average, and the first resistance is at 31,593.

HSCEI Technical Indicators

10-day MA: 12,126
50-day MA: 12,149
250-day MA: 11,684
14-day RSI: 49.7
Primary Resistance: 12,048
Primary Support: 11,941

The HSCEI shows a slightly lower RSI and a more bearish technical outlook, with support at 11,941 and resistance at 12,048.

HSI Futures

Futures Contract	11 Jun	8 Jun	7 Jun
Jun	31,043	30,840	31,535
Volume	147,887	178,758	160,102
Open Interests	125,286	129,593	130,194
Jul	30,861	30,659	31,351
Volume	405	870	600
Open Interests	2,589	2,528	2,337

Futures volumes and open interests show mixed trends, with the Jun contract experiencing a drop in volume and open interests, while the Jul contract shows a slight decline in open interests.

HSCEI Futures

Futures Contract	11 Jun	8 Jun	7 Jun
Jun	12,152	12,101	12,397
Volume	52,085	88,895	103,683
Open Interests	233,626	237,134	236,076
Jul	11,981	11,932	12,228
Volume	684	3,776	1,150
Open Interests	11,287	11,100	9,173

The HSCEI futures show a decline in volume and open interests, suggesting reduced market activity.

Key Company Highlights

China Resources Cement (1313)

Net Profit: Rose significantly in 1H18 due to higher cement prices.
Share Placement: Issued 450 million shares at HK$9.30, a 9.88% discount to the latest closing price.
Purpose: Funds will be used for prefabricated construction, aggregate businesses, debt repayment, and working capital.
Debt Level: Net debt at 37.6%, indicating strong financial position.
RSI: 53.1
P/E: 13.5
Dividend Yield: 3.4%

Despite the share placement, the stock is expected to consolidate due to cautious investor sentiment.

Country Garden (2007)

Contracted Sales: Reached 334.7 billion in the first five months of 2018, up 37.04%.
Spin-off Plan: Proposed spin-off of Country Garden Services, with a 1:8.7 share distribution.
Land Bank: 281.8 million sq.m, with 28% in Guangdong for the Big Bay Area development.
P/E: 8.6
Dividend Yield: 3.6%
RSI: 56.6

The company is expected to benefit from the spin-off and land development opportunities.

Stock Connect Statistics

SH Connect

Balance (RMB bn): 49.03
Balance as % of Quota: 94.3%

SZ Connect

Balance (RMB bn): 50.55
Balance as % of Quota: 97.2%

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SH-HK Connect Southbound)

Tencent (700) - Buy: 69,885,040 RMB, Sell: 168,836,800 RMB, Turnover: 238,721,840 RMB
Country Garden (2007) - Buy: 26,121,440 RMB, Sell: 145,113,040 RMB, Turnover: 171,234,480 RMB
Ping An (2318) - Buy: 83,202,775 RMB, Sell: 35,703,000 RMB, Turnover: 118,905,775 RMB
Ali Health (241) - Buy: 76,679,800 RMB, Sell: 49,671,460 RMB, Turnover: 126,351,260 RMB
Geely Auto (175) - Buy: 70,329,250 RMB, Sell: 29,535,500 RMB, Turnover: 99,864,750 RMB

Top 10 Most Actively Traded Stocks (SZ-HK Connect Southbound)

Sunny Optical (2382) - Turnover: 296,230,970 RMB
Tencent (700) - Turnover: 238,721,840 RMB
Country Garden (2007) - Turnover: 171,234,480 RMB
Ali Health (241) - Turnover: 126,351,260 RMB
Ping An (2318) - Turnover: 118,905,775 RMB

Other Statistics

Ten Most Actively Traded Stocks

Tencent (700) - Change: +0.96%, Turnover: 6,485.8M
Ping An (2318) - Change: +0.32%, Turnover: 2,036.5M
CCB (939) - Change: -0.25%, Turnover: 1,752.1M
Geely Auto (175) - Change: +2.97%, Turnover: 1,346.3M
ICBC (1398) - Change: -0.46%, Turnover: 1,056.8M

Ten Short Sell Stocks

HSCEI ETF (02828.HK) - Short Sell: 553.70M, Turnover: 1.57B, Short Sell Ratio: 35.16%
Tencent (00700.HK) - Short Sell: 338.04M, Turnover: 6.49B, Short Sell Ratio: 5.21%
Tracker Fund (02800.HK) - Short Sell: 328.46M, Turnover: 704.23M, Short Sell Ratio: 46.64%
Ping An (02318.HK) - Short Sell: 260.25M, Turnover: 2.04B, Short Sell Ratio: 12.78%
COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK) - Short Sell: 88.53M, Turnover: 706.78M, Short Sell Ratio: 12.53%

Economic Calendars

Date	Country	Event	Survey	Prior
Sun	China	May Aggregate Financing CNY		1560.0B
Sun	China	May New Yuan Loans CNY		1180.0B
Mon	Hong Kong	L'OCCITANE(973) Annual Result
Tue	US	May CPI YoY		2.5%
Wed	US	May PPI YoY		2.6%
Wed	Euro Zone	Apr Industrial Production SA MoM		0.5%
Thu	US	FOMC Rate Decision		1.50%-1.75%
Fri	US	Jun University of Michigan Sentiment Preliminary	98.2	98.0

The economic calendar highlights upcoming events such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI data, which may influence market sentiment.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions in this report are based on internal research and may change without notice.
No liability is accepted for any use of the report or its contents.
This report is for informational purposes only and not an invitation to buy or sell securities.

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