2017年-德勤全球_Navigating_the_new_world_of_LNG_14页_1mb

Summary of "Navigating the new world of LNG"

Core Content

The document titled "Navigating the new world of LNG" provides an in-depth analysis of the global LNG industry, highlighting its growth, transformation, and future outlook. It is part of Deloitte's LNG series, which explores the evolving dynamics of the market and the challenges and opportunities it presents.

Main Points

Growth

• LNG has experienced significant growth over the past 20 years, quadrupling in size since 1995 and doubling its share of global natural gas trade.
• New supply projects in Qatar, Australia, and the US have contributed to this growth, with over 140 million tons per annum (mtpa) of liquefaction capacity currently under construction.
• The market is expected to continue growing, driven by demand in regions with limited indigenous gas resources and the long-term trend toward lower carbon intensity in global economies.

Change

• The LNG industry is undergoing major changes, including the emergence of new suppliers and markets.
• New technologies such as floating regasification and storage units (FSRUs) are enabling more flexible and efficient supply chains.
• The rise of spot and short-term trade is reshaping traditional long-term contracts and commercial arrangements.

Uncertainty

• The LNG industry faces uncertainty due to the high capital investment required for long-term projects.
• The recent drop in oil prices has impacted project economics and reduced price differentials between regions.
• There is concern about whether the current overcapacity will lead to underinvestment in necessary supply infrastructure.

Challenge

• Overcapacity in the LNG industry, driven by rapid project development, is a key near-term challenge.
• Projects in Australia have faced cost overruns and schedule delays, which have affected their economic viability.
• These challenges could lead to a potential boom and bust cycle if not managed effectively.

Opportunity

• LNG is well-positioned to benefit from the long-term growth of natural gas as the fastest-growing fossil fuel.
• New applications such as using LNG as a transport fuel in heavy-duty trucks, rail, and ships are opening up additional markets.
• Increased market liquidity through spot and short-term trade is creating opportunities for better price transparency, trading optimization, and portfolio management.

Emerging Trends and Drivers

The document outlines seven key trends that will shape the future of the LNG industry:

1. Slowing Economic Growth

   • Economic growth in Europe, Southeast Asia, and China has slowed, which may affect LNG demand growth, particularly in Asia.

2. Increased Energy Efficiency

   • Energy efficiency improvements are reducing overall energy consumption, which may impact LNG's competitiveness, especially in markets where it competes with renewables.

3. Surfeit of Pre-FID Capacity

   • A large amount of liquefaction capacity is under development or awaiting sanction, which could lead to overcapacity and market volatility.

4. Lower Transport Costs

   • Reducing shipping costs and distances, including through new routes and better vessel utilization, is critical to improving LNG economics.

5. Access to New Markets

   • LNG suppliers are expanding into smaller, second-tier markets with limited demand and weaker balance sheets, supported by flexible trade finance and FSRUs.

6. New Types of End-Users

   • Emerging markets are showing interest in using LNG for distributed power generation and as a transport fuel, which could create new demand sources.

7. Increases in Market Liquidity

   • The growth of spot and short-term trade is increasing market liquidity, enabling better pricing transparency and trade flexibility.

Future Outlook

• Despite near-term challenges, the long-term growth prospects for LNG remain positive.
• The industry is expected to diversify in terms of supply sources, participants, and business models.
• Flexibility and optionality will become more important, with the rise of traders, market hubs, and specialized services.
• The US has emerged as a major LNG exporter due to the shale gas revolution, offering a new source of supply and influencing global trade dynamics.
• The future may see a decline in the dominance of long-term bilateral contracts, with more diverse and dynamic commercial arrangements.

Conclusion

The LNG industry is at a crossroads, with the potential for continued growth and expansion, but also facing significant challenges related to overcapacity, cost control, and market volatility. The Deloitte series provides a framework for understanding these changes and adapting business models to thrive in the evolving LNG landscape.

Key Contributors and Contacts

• Andrew Slaughter – Executive Director, Deloitte Center of Energy Solutions
• Thomas Shattuck – Key contributor
• Global Contacts:
  • Anton Botes – Global Leader - Oil & Gas
  • Rajeev Chopra – Global Leader - Energy & Resources
• Regional Contacts:
  • Jeff Lyons – Canada
  • Vedamoorthy Namasivayam – India
  • Jorge Castilla – Mexico
  • Bevan Whitehead – United Kingdom
  • Ricardo Ruiz – Argentina
  • Christopher Roberge – China
  • Ali Hery – Indonesia
  • Salam Awawdeh – Middle East
  • John England – United States
  • Bernadette Cullinane – Australia
  • Gustavo Ramirez – Colombia
  • Naohiro Inagaki – Japan
  • Bart Cornelissen – Netherlands
  • Mark Edmunds – Asia Pacific
  • Carlos Vivas – Brazil
  • Veronique Laurent – France
  • Tai In Song – Korea
  • Felipe Requejo – Spain

Endnotes

• The document references various reports and analyses, including those from the Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions and the International Gas Union, to support its findings.
• It also cites articles from Financial Times and Wall Street Journal for additional context and insights.