20160401-德勤-Global_Powers_of_Retailing_2016__Navigating_the_new_digital_divide_48页_1mb

Summary of Deloitte Global's Retailing 2016 Report

Core Content

The Global Powers of Retailing 2016 report by Deloitte Global provides an in-depth analysis of the world's top 250 retailers based on fiscal 2014 data. It also explores the impact of global economic trends on the retail sector, particularly the influence of digital technology on in-store shopping behavior, and offers insights into the performance of major economies and their retail markets.

Main Economic Trends

1. Currency Movements

• The US dollar strengthened significantly against most major currencies.
• This was driven by low oil prices, strong US economic performance, and loose monetary policy in Europe and Japan.
• The strong dollar has increased US consumer purchasing power but raised import costs for other regions, especially emerging markets.
• Emerging market central banks have had to raise interest rates to stabilize currencies, which has slowed economic growth and led to some countries entering recession.

2. Oil Prices

• Oil prices dropped sharply due to increased US shale production, Saudi Arabia's output boost, and weak global demand.
• Lower oil prices boosted consumer spending power and reduced inflationary pressures in major markets.
• The decline in energy sector capital spending negatively impacted business investment in the US, Canada, and other oil-producing nations.
• The effect of low oil prices is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices likely to stay within a narrow range.

3. Low Inflation

• Inflation has remained historically low in the developed world and China.
• This has led to a disinflationary psychology, where monetary expansion affects asset prices rather than goods and services.
• Low inflation risks deflation, which can raise real borrowing costs and hinder investment.
• It has also discouraged business investment, leading to a buildup of cash in developed economies.

Major Markets Overview

1. United States

• The US economy continues to grow faster than most developed economies.
• Strong domestic demand and low interest rates have supported housing and retail spending.
• However, a strong dollar and weak business investment are potential headwinds.
• Expected growth of around 3.0% in the coming year, with continued low inflation.

2. China

• The Chinese economy has slowed significantly, with official growth at 7.0% and private analysts suggesting a more severe decline.
• The appreciation of the renminbi and industrial overcapacity have hurt exports and suppressed investment.
• The shift toward consumer-driven growth is ongoing, but reforms are needed to sustain it.
• Growth is expected to remain below 7.0%, with a focus on domestic consumption.

3. Europe

• The European economy has shown modest recovery, aided by ECB monetary expansion and low oil prices.
• Inflation remains low, and the ECB is likely to increase its asset purchase program.
• The revival of consumer spending and employment has been notable, but business investment has not followed.
• High unemployment and political tensions pose long-term risks to economic integration and stability.

4. Japan

• Japan's economy showed a rebound in Q3 2015 but still faces headwinds.
• "Abenomics" has focused on monetary expansion, but fiscal and structural reforms have been limited.
• The yen has weakened, boosting exports and tourism, but wages have not kept pace with inflation.
• Per capita GDP growth has been healthy, but overall economic growth remains modest.

5. Emerging Markets

• Many emerging markets have experienced capital outflows due to anticipated US monetary tightening.
• This has led to currency depreciation and tighter monetary policies, further slowing growth.
• Brazil and Russia are in recession, while India remains a bright spot due to lower oil prices and eased monetary policy.

Digital Influence and the New Digital Divide

1. Digital Influence in Retail

• Digital technology is significantly influencing in-store shopping behavior across all regions.
• It is not just about online sales but also about how consumers use digital tools during their physical shopping trips.
• The report challenges the notion of "showrooming," showing that digital device use in stores increases the likelihood of in-store purchases.

2. The New Digital Divide

• A gap exists between consumer digital behavior and the ability of retailers to meet these expectations.
• Retailers are not fully delivering on the digital needs of their customers, which limits their potential to capture sales.
• The digital influence varies by market, age, income, and product category.
• The report emphasizes that a one-size-fits-all approach to digital strategies is unlikely to be effective.

3. Key Findings

• Digital tools are helping consumers tailor their shopping experiences.
• The use of mobile devices is a key driver of digital influence.
• Retailers must adapt to evolving digital expectations to remain relevant and competitive.

Top 250 Global Powers of Retailing

The report lists the top 250 retailers based on fiscal 2014 retail revenue, highlighting:

• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. as the largest with $485,651 million in retail revenue.
• Costco Wholesale Corporation and The Kroger Co. as the second and third largest in the US.
• Schwarz Unternehmensstreuhand KG from Germany and Tesco PLC from the UK also feature in the top 10.
• Amazon.com Inc. is the only non-store retailer in the top 250, with $70,080 million in retail revenue.
• The report includes data on revenue growth, parent company revenue, net income, and the number of countries of operation.

Conclusion

The Global Powers of Retailing 2016 report underscores the importance of adapting to digital trends and the ongoing impact of global economic factors on retail performance. It highlights the need for retailers to understand and respond to the evolving digital expectations of consumers, while also navigating the challenges posed by currency fluctuations, low inflation, and varying economic conditions across regions.