20231128-宏源期货-有色金属周报（铅）_高位回落_关注再生铅成本端支撑_28页_1mb

YUANYING FUTURES LEAD WEEKLY REPORT SUMMARY

Raw Material and Supply

• Raw material supply remains tight, with low imports and constrained scrap battery availability due to price declines.
• Repairs at original lead facilities are resuming, increasing production as planned shutdowns end.
• Reprocessed lead production is falling due to raw material shortages and market losses, leading to regional supply constraints.

Demand

• Battery demand is weak, with poor terminal consumption, especially in electric vehicles and general lead accumulations in inventories.
• Orders for automotive and communication batteries are stable, but overall market remains inactive.

Market Overview

• Prices have trended downward recently, with supportive factors from raw material scarcity and reprocess costs limiting further declines.
• LME inventory building continues, pressuring prices, though domestic stock adjustments may be partly due to exports.
• Export opportunities are now open, with profit margins improving due to yuan-USD parity adjustments.

Outlook

• Expectations: Lead price is likely to remain within 15,800-16,600 yuan/ton due to supply tightness and demand recovery potential.

• Strategy: Consider purchasing low positions, monitor downstream inventory rebuilding.

• Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations and unanticipated production reductions.

• Key takeaway: Market in a supply-demand tight scenario with limited downside, influenced by export activities and raw material flows.